RADIO
Mike Fanelli gives his fantasy football bold predictions for Conference Championship games, giving fantasy players something to think about when setting their lineups.
The Conference Championship round of the playoffs is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brandon Aiyuk, and Travis Kelce.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for the third round of the NFL playoffs.
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Brock Purdy…
Has the most passing touchdowns this weekend
Many still call Purdy a “system quarterback” or a “game manager.” However, the second-year quarterback was outstanding during the regular season. He had 31 passing touchdowns, the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the former Iowa State star was on track to finish second behind Dak Prescott before sitting out a meaningless Week 18 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
Last week, Purdy didn’t have his best performance. The weather played a role in his so-so play, but the matchup also impacted his stat line. He completed 59% of his pass attempts for 252 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately, Purdy lost Deebo Samuel to a shoulder injury early in the game. However, expect a bounce-back performance from the quarterback whether or not the star wide receiver plays.
The San Francisco 49ers take on the Detroit Lions for the right to be NFC champions. The Lions surrendered 28 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks during the regular season, the sixth-most in the NFL. They gave up two passing touchdowns to Matthew Stafford in the first round and three to Baker Mayfield last weekend. Purdy has the best set of weapons in the playoffs, even without Samuel. Therefore, expect him to have a massive performance this weekend.
Lamar Jackson…
Runs all over the Kansas City Chiefs defense
While he hasn’t officially won the award yet, Jackson is the heavy favorite to be the 2023 MVP. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback played a significant role in the team’s success during the regular season, including locking down the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. After earning the first-round bye, Jackson had his way with the Houston Texans’ defense last week, destroying them in the passing game and on the ground.
The soon-to-be two-time MVP winner had four touchdowns against the Texans, totaling two in the air and two in the run game. He had a 15-yard rushing score in the third quarter and an eight-yard rushing touchdown in the fourth. Jackson had five rushing touchdowns during the regular season, his highest total since 2020. While that number didn’t rank among the best in the NFL, the superstar runs when it matters the most, including last week.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had trouble keeping quarterbacks in the pocket during the postseason. Tua Tagovailoa is one of the least likely quarterbacks to run in the NFL. Yet, he had 25 rushing yards against the Chiefs in the first round. Last week, Josh Allen totaled 72 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the loss to Kansas City. Jackson is the best running quarterback in the league and should have no trouble running all over this defense.
Jahmyr Gibbs…
Crushes his receiving yard prop bet total
Everyone called the Lions idioits for spending a top-15 NFL Draft pick on Gibbs in April. Yet, Detroit got the last laugh. The rookie running back was outstanding during the regular season, totaling 1,261 scrimmage yards and 11 offensive touchdowns in 15 games. Gibbs has the ability to make the defense pay anytime he touches the ball, especially in the open field.
Last week, the former Alabama star was outstanding despite facing an elite Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Gibbs had nine rushing attempts for 74 yards, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. The rookie running back had no trouble ripping apart Tampa Bay’s defense on his 31-yard rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter, showing off his big-play abilities. More importantly, he was impressive in the receiving game.
Gibbs had four receptions for 40 receiving yards in the win over the Buccaneers. Yet, his over/under receiving prop on DraftKings is only 22.5 receiving yards (-120). The rookie averaged 21.1 receiving yards per game during the regular season, totaling 40 or more in both playoff matchups. Meanwhile, the 49ers gave up 36.8 receiving yards per game to running backs during the regular season, the seventh-most in the NFL. Expect Gibbs to double his receiving prop total.
Brandon Aiyuk…
Leads all players in receiving yards on Sunday
Hopefully, San Francisco will have Deebo Samuel on Sunday after the star wide receiver suffered a shoulder injury in Saturday’s win over the Packers. Yet, the veteran wide receiver won’t be 100%, which should lead to more snaps and targets for Aiyuk. The former Arizona State star led the team with 1,342 receiving yards during the regular season, ranking seventh in the NFL.
The star wide receiver averaged 83.9 receiving yards per game during the regular season, 24% higher than anyone else on the team. Last week, Aiyuk struggled against Green Bay, totaling only 32 receiving yards on three receptions. However, the Packers did everything possible to limit his impact on the game, and weather conditions didn’t help. Thankfully, Aiyuk has a much more appealing matchup on Sunday afternoon.
Detroit surrendered 181.2 receiving yards per game to wide receivers during the regular season, the third-most in the league. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Lions gave up the sixth-highest target per route run rate (24%) and the eighth-most receiving yards per game (121.2) to outside receivers during the regular season. Aiyuk ran over 75% of his routes out wide this year. After giving up 181 receiving yards to Puka Nacua and 147 to Mike Evans this postseason, expect Aiyuk to have his way with Detroit’s secondary.
Travis Kelce…
Has a vintage superstar performance
Many fantasy players used a first-round pick in their 2023 redraft league on Kelce. Unfortunately, the future Hall of Famer didn’t play like a superstar. He was the TE3 for the year, averaging 11.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, finishing behind Sam LaPorta and Evan Engram. Kelce didn’t look like his old self, moving slower than in past seasons. While it could have been an injury, he has been outstanding during the playoffs.
The veteran is the TE2 on a points-per-game basis during the postseason, only behind Jake Ferguson after his three-touchdown performance on Wild Card Weekend. Kelce had seven receptions on 10 targets for 10.6 fantasy points two weeks ago against the Miami Dolphins. More importantly, he looked like the best tight end in football last week against the Buffalo Bills, totaling five receptions on six targets for 75 receiving yards and two touchdowns, scoring 22 fantasy points in the victory.
Kelce looked like the elite tight end fantasy players saw the past few years. Meanwhile, the Ravens had arguably the top defense in the NFL during the regular season. However, their one “weakness” was defending tight ends. They surrendered 804 receiving yards to tight ends, ranking in the middle of the league. After dominating the Bills last week, no one should be surprised if Kelce has a repeat performance.
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