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Brenton Kemp's top NHL betting picks and best bets for today's NHL games on 11/29/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various hockey bets.
It's a fairly quiet night in the NHL this Wednesday evening as we have just three games on tap. That said, there's always value to be had so let's dive in and pay those bankrolls!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the NHL games on Wednesday, November 29, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some hockey games. Follow me on Twitter @BKemp17.
Today's NHL Betting Picks - Detroit Red Wings vs. New York Rangers
O/U: 6 | Moneyline: NYR (-205)
The New York Rangers and Detroit Red Wings get together for an Original Six tilt tonight on Broadway and the Wings will do so without their best player in the lineup.
Indeed, leading point-getter and captain Dylan Larkin is out with an undisclosed injury for tonight's contest, and likely tomorrow night's game in Chicago, for what it's worth. Larkin paces the Wings with 21 points in 20 games this season while it will be up to JT Compher to center the top line on Wednesday.
Detroit was off to a hot start before cooling off. However. they have rattled off three straight wins entering this one, out-scoring their opponents by a 13-3 margin in the process. Whether the goal-scoring is sustainable, however, is another question as the Wings sit second overall with 3.16 goals for per 60 minutes of five-on-five action but also sit 28th in expected goals for/60 at 5v5, as per Natural Stat Trick. Offensive regression is almost certain moving forward.
At the same time, this Rangers team gets a boost tonight as all-world blueliner Adam Fox is expected to return after a lengthy lower-body injury absence. Fox has notched three goals and 11 points in 10 games on the season but he's also been a beast on the man advantage with nine power-play points on the campaign. The Rangers' power play is just 4-for-21 (19%) over its last seven games.
The Blueshirts are also on the opposite side of the goal-scoring regression ledger than this evening's opponent. They sit 25th in goals for/60 and 21st in expected goals for/60 at 5v5. Not a major difference, of course, but this is an offense capable of averaging more than just 2.32 goals/60 minutes of 5v5 action.
There's also a notable goaltending advantage on the home side with the likely matchup of Igor Shesterkin versus Ville Husso. While Shesterkin is unconfirmed, Husso will get the starting nod for the Wings while bringing a lowly 3.47 goals-against average and an .888 save percentage into Wednesday's action.
Add it up and the Rangers have little excuse not to take it to their opponent tonight on home ice.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 puck line (+124, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's NHL Betting Picks - Washington Capitals vs. Los Angeles Kings
O/U: 6 | Moneyline: LA (-218)
The Los Angeles Kings and Washington Capitals will square off in a rare matchup tonight in Hollywood with the home side looking to take advantage of a Capitals team playing their second game in as many nights.
The Capitals dropped a 2-1 decision to the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night and face the wildly difficult task of taking on a very good Kings team on Wednesday. Not only is this a team on a back-to-back but the fact the Capitals are one of the oldest teams in the NHL won't do them any favors.
Their advanced metrics suggest they should score more at even strength but what is wrong with this power play? Alex Ovechkin's unit sits dead last in the league with a miserable 5.66% clip on the man advantage and faces the NHL's best penalty kill in this one as the Kings sit with a league-best 89.4% mark on the kill.
As for the Kings, the penalty kill isn't the only area where they are dominating. They also sit first in the league in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five with a mark of 57.94% and also expected goals against/60 at 5v5. For good measure, they rank third in expected goals for/60 at 5v5.
It certainly appears the 13-3-3 Kings are for real. They are three points behind the Vegas Golden Knights for first place in the Western Conference with four games in hand. They are the best in the west as we speak.
Like we did above, the Kings should be able to take advantage of a vulnerable opponent tonight on home ice. Another puck line winner should be in store!
Pick: Kings -1.5 puck line (+120, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, Rotoballers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
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