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Sundays are always a tough day to predict MLB outcomes and perhaps some of that comes from some different-looking lineups or maybe it's just a week's worth of variance all at once. It just seems like crazy stuff happens on Sundays and so I usually dig into props a bit more and focus less on predicting the actual outcomes of the games.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, August 20, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Dylan Cease OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings)
I was a bit stuck on Mad Max or Cease here at the same 6.5 number, but Cease is getting almost even odds while Max's prop is juiced up to -150. Milwaukee has also dropped their strikeout rate considerably of late, while Colorado continues to strike out at a 27% rate against RHP over the last month, which is the fourth-most of any team in the majors.
Yes, the game is in Coors, but I have some faith in Cease here to get it done anyway. Even while he has struggled with run prevention this year and see his ERA swell to 4.32, he has still kept his strikeout numbers high and other than the one blow-up start against Texas two starts ago, he's been pitching pretty well.
Logan Allen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
Allen made this article earlier in the week and easily surpassed this threshold with a 7-strikeout performance against the Reds. We are still getting this low number from the books today, though it comes with some juice attached.
Logan Allen, Vicious 80mph Sweeper...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/AePhRmulDT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 16, 2023
But I like Allen's chances here, he's been pitching well and has gone over this number now in six of his last eight starts. Detroit has been a bit better offensively lately, but they still strike out more than the league average against lefties.
Max Scherzer to record a win (-115 DraftKings)
I couldn't get behind Max's strikeouts or his out totals today, but I do think he pitches well enough to earn the win. The Rangers offense has a nice matchup against Adrian Houser and Scherzer shouldn't need too much run support. He has won four straight and seems to be doing what he always does - rounding into form for a contender down the stretch.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
This one feels like cheating a little bit, but Casty and the rest of the Phillies have some really darn good BvP against Nats' pitcher Trevor Williams. They also seem to have their number this season as they came back and won again last night behind another big performance by Casty, who homered and drove in four runs
Nick Castellanos homers on the anniversary of the Thom Brennaman home run pic.twitter.com/eMWapijUuc
— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) August 20, 2023
Schwarber has owned Williams, too, but has a lot more swing-and-miss in his game for my liking. Castellanos has been the Phillies' most consistent hitter now for the last month and I like backing him to pick up two total bases or more today.
Corey Seager OVER 1.5 total bases (-140 DraftKings)
It's a shame that Seager has missed some time this season because I'd love to see where we would have finished with a full 150+ games played. This dude just does nothing but hit, hit, hit, and find his way on base. He and Marcus Semien atop this Texas lineup have been such a formidable duo all season and Texas is hoping they can ride this offense (along with some pitching they picked up at the deadline) into a nice postseason run.
Adrian Houser isn't very good and is actually quite bad against lefties. I like the way Seager matches up against his sinker/slider combo.
Dansby Swanson OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 DraftKings)
I had to go with one more hitter today because I wanted to grab at least one bat with plus odds in a good matchup. Swanson and the Cubs face Jordan Lyles and the Royals today.
Lyles is a guy that target quite often in DFS and with bets as he's been hit hard again this season and is well-known as one of the top gas cans in the game. Sometimes it backfires because he can turn in a good performance every now and again. But all the metrics here are too inviting - the hard contact, the fly ball rates, and the wOBA/ISO allowed. Lefties and righties both hit him hard, and Swanson has a nice small sample of success against him as well (3-6 with a home run)
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