RADIO
Last weekend was a moderate success as my highlighted player prop picks went 10-2 in the Divisional Round. Although I'm happy with a 10-2 record, it didn't amount to much in the way of winnings considering both of my misses were on higher-confidence selections. I'm hoping to bounce back this weekend, particularly with my top three picks.
If you're looking to get in on the excitement, there are three player prop contests for the Conference Championships offered by our friends at No House Advantage! All three include both of Sunday's games. These contests range from just $5-$20 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $50,000!
Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Sunday's Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.
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How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you think Travis Kelce will continue his postseason dominance, you would select the over on Kelce's 79.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once all of Sunday's games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your Sunday slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Conference Championship Sunday
Joe Burrow (vs KC) over 1.5 passing touchdowns
If you haven't heard, many Cincinnati Bengals players are referring to Arrowhead Stadium as "Burrowhead Stadium" heading into Sunday's Conference Championship. I'm hoping this doesn't get to Joe Burrow's head as I am counting on him in this matchup.
I also discussed this prop as a lower confidence selection last week, and Burrow came through with two passing touchdowns in a win over the Buffalo Bills. The LSU product has surpassed this line in 13 of his 18 total contests this year between the regular season and playoffs.
Further, the Bengals are calling the Chiefs' home "Burrowhead" for a reason. The 26-year-old is 3-0 with 982 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception in his career against Patrick Mahomes.
Although Burrow has thrown for at least two scores in all three of his victories against the Chiefs, it is worth noting that only one of these matchups took place in Kansas City. This was last year's AFC Championship game, a 27-24 thriller that was decided by a field goal in overtime. I expect this season's rematch to be equally competitive with the two Pro Bowl signal-callers exchanging blows.
One of my two incorrect predictions last week was that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence would throw two touchdowns against this same Chiefs defense. Lawrence may have let me down, but I stand by my analysis.
In the regular season, Kansas City surrendered the most passing touchdowns in the league and allowed opposing offenses to score through the air two or more times in 12 of 17 contests. Among these is a Week 13 bout against the Bengals, in Cincinnati, in which Burrow finished with 286 passing yards and two passing touchdowns.
Brock Purdy (vs PHI) under 222.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy is another quarterback I mentioned last week, and I successfully selected his over 210.5 passing yards prop as a lower-confidence pick. I'm going in the opposite direction this week, not only because his line has risen, but because the rookie faces a much more difficult test.
Although Purdy has averaged over 231 passing yards per game since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo, the Eagles boast an incredible pass defense, and I have concerns that Mr. Irrelevant could struggle in his first road playoff matchup. Philadelphia allowed just 179.8 passing yards per contest in the regular season, the lowest mark in the NFL. In the Divisional Round, the Eagles held Daniel Jones, fresh off a 300-yard performance, to 135 yards through the air.
Additionally, Philadelphia allowed only four opponents in the regular season to eclipse 223 passing yards. One of them was the Green Bay Packers, who totaled 253 passing yards between Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Another was the New Orleans Saints, who had 24 passing yards added by Taysom Hill. In other words, only two individual quarterbacks all season managed to hit this line in a game against the Eagles: Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray.
Purdy's success continues to be one of the best surprises in sports this year, but I think there is a very real possibility we see his Cinderella story come to an unfortunate ending on Sunday. Even if the 49ers manage a win, I would bet they are led by their defensive prowess rather than their passing attack.
A.J. Brown (vs SF) over 71.5 receiving yards
I correctly bet against A.J. Brown in the Divisional Round as his receptions prop, at 7.5, was simply listed too high for my liking. Although the Eagles won convincingly against the New York Giants, Brown was visibly frustrated on the sideline late in the game and spoke with head coach Nick Sirianni about his perceived lack of targets. Yes, I'm buying into the squeaky wheel narrative here.
While Brown has been overshadowed by DeVonta Smith as of late, he's still been pretty incredible on a per-catch basis. Brown has surpassed 72 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, falling short by just two yards in Week 14. San Francisco is appropriately viewed as a defensive juggernaut, but I still love this spot for Brown.
The 49ers allowed the sixth-most yards to opposing wide receivers throughout the regular season and have been demolished by WR1s in both of their playoff games. In the Wild-Card Round, Brown's Ole Miss teammate DK Metcalf went off for 10 receptions, 136 yards, and two touchdowns. Just last week, CeeDee Lamb posted 10 receptions of his own for 117 yards against San Francisco.
It is certainly worth questioning at this point if Philadelphia has a clear-cut WR1, as both Brown and Smith fit the bill. Given Brown's relationship with Jalen Hurts, though, I'd be shocked if his frustrations go ignored. The two have been close friends for years. With a Super Bowl appearance on the line, I don't anticipate Hurts risking turnovers to force-feed Brown, but I believe a slight uptick in opportunities is in order.
For what it's worth, the last time Brown faced the 49ers was in Week 16 of last season, and he torched them for 11 receptions and 145 yards as a member of the Tennessee Titans.
Lower Confidence Picks - Conference Championship Sunday
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs CIN) under 30.5 receiving yards
My highest confidence selection last Saturday was taking the under on Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 4.5 receptions prop. My conviction was proven justified as MVS finished with just one catch against Jacksonville. Predictably, Valdes-Scantling's receptions line has been lowered to 2.5, which is a little too low for me to feel comfortable taking. His receiving yardage prop, however, still feels a bit high. The 28-year-old hasn't surpassed 30 yards in a game since Week 13.
The Bengals have been stingy against opposing wide receivers this season, surrendering the 11th-fewest receiving yards to the position. In fact, Cincinnati allowed only 152 total yards to five Bills receivers in the Divisional Round. With JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Travis Kelce in the mix, I wouldn't count on Valdes-Scantling to earn the target volume needed to get to 31 yards without a long reception. It could absolutely happen, but explosive plays have been few and far between for him in his first season in Kansas City.
It would be wise to keep an eye on the Chiefs' injury report heading into Sunday, as both Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson are currently listed as questionable. Hardman, of course, hasn't seen the field since Week 9, so his return to the lineup would probably instill even more confidence in this selection.
Watson, on the other hand, has played on a surprising amount of snaps for a wideout that averaged two targets per game throughout the regular season. If both players are declared out, I'd be slightly less certain of this prop as MVS could see an increase in snaps.
Ja'Marr Chase (vs KC) over 6.5 receptions
I was burnt by Chase last week with this exact prop outlined as a high-confidence pick. The second-year wideout finished with five receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. A solid game, no doubt, but not the seven-reception performance I was looking for.
I'm going right back to the well on Conference Championship Sunday. Cincinnati held Buffalo to just three points in the second half last week, allowing them to play a little more conservatively down the stretch. Chase had only two targets in the second half.
Before the Bengals' Divisional-Round outing, Chase had recorded seven receptions in nine straight games. Included in this stretch was a Week 13 matchup against the Chiefs in which he finished with seven catches for 97 yards.
The 22-year-old has faced Kansas City two other times so far in his career. In last year's AFC Championship game, he was limited to six receptions for 54 yards and a score. In Week 17 of the 2021-2022 regular season, however, Chase notoriously dropped 11-for-266-and-three on the Chiefs.
As I stated earlier, I'm counting on Joe Burrow to deliver on Sunday, and he'll surely need to be on the same page as his go-to guy to do so. Kansas City is currently favored by 1.5 points at home, so expect the Bengals to come in with an underdog mindset and be aggressive in what projects to be a high-scoring showdown.
Miles Sanders (vs SF) under 59.5 rushing yards
Sanders is fresh off of a 90-yard showing in the Divisional Round, but the 49ers' run defense poses a much bigger threat than that of the Giants. Throughout the regular season, New York surrendered over 144 rushing yards per game, the sixth-most in the NFL. San Francisco, however, allowed just 77.7 rushing yards per contest, which was the second-fewest.
The 49ers shut down the Cowboys' run game last Sunday but did allow Kenneth Walker III to barely sneak over this line with 63 rushing yards two weeks ago. Still, on the season, this has been an incredibly difficult bar for running backs to reach. San Francisco gave up just one performance of 60 or more rushing yards to a running back during the regular season. Josh Jacobs managed 69 rushing yards in Week 17.
Others came close, and plenty of teams eclipsed 60 yards rushing, but the fact that only two individual players surpassed this line in 18 games against the 49ers is astounding. If Philadelphia's defense has its way against Brock Purdy, Sanders could have his number called upon often in the second half, but it's likely that Kenneth Gainwell would also receive touches in the event of a blowout.
That being said, this should be a closely-fought battle, with the Eagles coming in as 2.5-point favorites at home. As I outlined when discussing A.J. Brown above, the 49ers can be exploited through the air, so I'm not counting on a big game from Sanders. Other sportsbooks aren't, either, as his rushing yardage prop is commonly sitting between 49.5 and 51.5.
Conference Championship Sunday Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry
Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Conference Championship Sunday slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.
You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!
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