NFL Pick 'Em: Player Prop Picks for No House Advantage - Divisional Round

Jorden Hill's NFL DFS prop picks for No House Advantage Pick 'Em contests and the Divisional Round Sunday slate. Use his NFL prop picks to win money.

We got off to a nice start in the Divisional Round, going 5-1 with highlighted player prop picks on Saturday. If you missed out, don't worry! There are more opportunities to win some money on Sunday with two more NFL games scheduled this weekend. Sounds like the perfect time to get in on the action by joining some player prop contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage!

There are still three Pick 'Em contests available to join, all focused on Sunday's two-game slate. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $30,000!

Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Sunday's Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.

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How to Play on No House Advantage

The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.

For example, if you believe that Stefon Diggs will go off at home against the Bengals, you would select the over on Diggs' 91.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.

Once all of Sunday's games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your Sunday slate picks.

Higher Confidence Picks - Divisional Round (Sunday Slate)

Ezekiel Elliott (vs. SF) under 57.5 rushing yards

Just a few seasons ago, this line would have felt criminally low for Ezekiel Elliott. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old has shown some signs of regression after averaging a career-low in yards per carry this year.

Zeke eclipsed 58 rushing yards seven times during the 2022-2023 campaign but has fallen short in four straight contests. This includes an underwhelming showing just last week in the Wild Card round in which Elliott handled 13 carries for just 27 yards. It's also important to note that Elliott was out-snapped by Tony Pollard, who was much more efficient with his 15 attempts.

On Sunday, Elliott will really have his work cut out for him against the San Francisco 49ers' defense. The 49ers surrendered the fewest rushing yards to running backs in the league throughout the regular season. To make matters worse, this Divisional Round bout will be held in San Francisco, where the 49ers' defense is even more impenetrable. The team allowed only 66.5 total rushing yards per game at home.

Only two opposing halfbacks surpassed this line in Levi's Stadium: Brian Robinson Jr., who finished with exactly 58 yards in Week 16, and Kenneth Walker III, who recorded 63 yards in the Wild Card round last weekend. With Dallas splitting carries between Zeke and Pollard, I'd be shocked if either reaches 58 rushing yards, but I'm especially confident betting against the less explosive, inefficient Elliott.

His rushing yardage prop is set at 34.5 on other popular sportsbooks, further emphasizing the fact that this line is just too high.

Deebo Samuel (vs. DAL) over 43.5 receiving yards

It's no secret that Deebo Samuel is one of the most dangerous players in the NFL with the ball in his hands. He accumulated 493 yards after the catch in the regular season, 11th-most in the league. He did this in just 13 games played. Samuel's elusiveness was again on full display in the Wild Card round as he took a seven-yard pass from Brock Purdy an additional 67 yards to the house.

Although Samuel is liable to break off a big play any given Sunday, it helps that the Cowboys are a plus matchup for wide receivers. Dallas surrendered the ninth-most yards to opposing wideouts this year, which explains why Deebo's receiving yardage prop is sitting at 56.5 on other sportsbooks.

Samuel finished with 44 or more receiving yards in seven of his 14 total contests this year between the regular season and playoffs. These numbers don't necessarily tell the whole story, though. Deebo went down with an injury in Week 14 and played on just 68 percent of snaps in his Week 18 return, so we can hardly count these two misses against him. Expect Samuel to get a full allotment of opportunities on Sunday and cruise past this line.

Ja'Marr Chase (vs. BUF) over 6.5 receptions

Betting on seven receptions for any player is often a bold call, but Ja'Marr Chase is a different breed.

The second-year wideout has been a model of consistency when looking at his reception totals this season. Chase has hauled in at least seven passes in nine straight games, obviously excluding the canceled outing against Buffalo in Week 17. In totality, the 22-year-old has hit this mark in 10 of his 13 games played this year.

Although there is plenty of target competition in Cincinnati, it's clear at this point that Chase should be considered Joe Burrow's favorite weapon. Tee Higgins has averaged an impressive eight targets per game in fully healthy contests this year, but Chase has averaged a whopping 11.2, including double-digit looks in five consecutive showings.

With Buffalo favored by six points at home, we can anticipate a lot of passing volume from the Bengals in a potentially high-scoring affair. Chase's target share is as safe as it gets, so I'm confident that he will catch upwards of seven balls.

Lower Confidence Picks - Divisional Round (Sunday Slate)

Devin Singletary (vs. CIN) under 47.5 rushing yards

Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary just barely snuck over this line in the Wild Card round with 48 yards on the dot. 11 of his yards came on Buffalo's last drive of the game in which the team was running out the clock. I'd be surprised if he has the same success this week.

In the regular season, Singletary cleared 47.5 rushing yards eight times, giving him a 50 percent hit rate. This does not include the Bills' Week 17 meeting with the Bengals that was ultimately canceled, but he may have struggled had the game been finished. Cincinnati surrendered the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs in the regular season.

Furthermore, Singletary's opportunities have become increasingly difficult to predict as James Cook has become more involved. The rookie has handled more rush attempts than Singletary in each of the Bills' last two contests.

This was especially noteworthy last week as the Miami Dolphins were able to keep pace with Buffalo despite being led by their third-string quarterback. If Cook had been given more touches in a blowout, this would not be a talking point.

Singletary's rushing yard props are coming at around 37.5 on other sportsbooks, so although we're not getting a massive edge here, I find it reassuring to know that Vegas is on my side.

Brock Purdy (vs. DAL) over 210.5 passing yards

We have a bit more of an advantage taking the over on Brock Purdy's passing yards as Mr. Irrelevant's line is listed as high as 241.5 yards elsewhere.

Dallas' defense was solid against the pass throughout the regular season, but 211 passing yards isn't asking for much. In fact, the Cowboys allowed 10 opponents to reach this mark through their first 17 games, and also gave up 351 passing yards to the Buccaneers last week.

Purdy has been a controversial topic of discussion since taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, but one thing that is unanimously agreed upon is that the 49ers' offensive weapons and system set him up for success. This is evident in Purdy's statistics as he has averaged over 234 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns while leading the 49ers to seven straight victories. The rookie has thrown for 211 or more passing yards in four of those wins.

Four out of seven yields a decent hit rate, but let's quickly look at the games in which he fell short. He finished on the hook with 210 yards in Week 13, but keep in mind that he did not take the field until San Francisco's second offensive drive. The following week, Purdy threw for just 185 yards but was pulled in the fourth quarter of a 35-7 blowout over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

His final shortcoming was in Week 18, where his three early touchdowns helped get San Francisco out to a 38-13 lead. He was subsequently pulled with 178 yards after three quarters.

The 49ers are favored to beat the Cowboys at home on Sunday, but with a spread of just -4.0, there should be no danger of Purdy resting early.

Joe Burrow (vs. BUF) over 1.5 passing touchdowns

I wish I could start this one off by saying that Joe Burrow has been consistently throwing two or more touchdowns lately, but truthfully, this isn't the case. Burrow has just two total passing touchdowns in the past two weeks.

For what it's worth, the Bengals faced off against the Baltimore Ravens in both contests, and Baltimore allowed just 20 passing touchdowns throughout the entirety of the regular season. This number was tied for the fifth-fewest in the league. Burrow's first meeting with the Ravens this year came in Week 5, in which he was also held to just one score through the air.

Fortunately, Burrow surpassed 1.5 passing touchdowns in 11 of his other 14 games this season. Although it didn't count, he quickly found the end zone against the Bills in Week 17 just minutes before the game was called off. I expect him and Cincinnati to come out firing once again.

The Bills averaged almost 32 points per game at home in the regular season. With a projected point total of 49, there should be no shortage of scoring in Sunday's contest. The Bengals operate as one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the NFL, so expect Burrow and company to air it out in a possible shootout with Josh Allen.

Divisional Round Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry

Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Divisional Round Sunday slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.

You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!

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