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The NFL regular season is officially wrapped up, and you may be wondering what to do without having fantasy football lineups to set. There are six exciting matchups in the Wild Card round of the playoffs that should be entertaining to watch, but we all know how much more thrilling it is when you have skin in the game.
Don't fret, it's not too late to get in on the action! Our friends at No House Advantage are offering a plethora of player prop contests all weekend.
There are a total of nine Pick 'Em contests available this week, with three centered around Saturday's two-game slate, three focused on Sunday's three-game slate, and three for Monday night's single-game showdown. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $30,000!
Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Saturday's Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.
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How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you believe Christian McCaffrey will have the same success against the Seahawks that he did in Week 16, you would select McCaffrey's over 75.5 rushing yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once both of Saturday's games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your early slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Wild Card Weekend (Saturday Slate)
Joshua Palmer (vs JAX) over 2.5 receptions
Second-year wideout Joshua Palmer was the subject of a lot of hype coming into the season. His utilization throughout the 2022-2023 campaign has been inconsistent, but Palmer has certainly flashed a lot of upside. The 23-year-old was particularly impressive earlier in the year with veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams banged up.
Palmer enjoyed the best showing of his young career in Week 11 with Allen back in the lineup for almost 70 percent of snaps but Williams exiting after re-injuring his ankle in the first quarter. He remained a focal point of the Chargers' passing attack in Weeks 12 and 13 with Williams sidelined, averaging nine targets, six receptions, and 58 yards per contest over the two weeks.
Williams is unfortunately now dealing with a back injury and has already been ruled out for the Wild Card round. This means Palmer will again handle WR2 duties for Los Angeles with Allen leading the way as Justin Herbert's favorite target. With this in mind, the line for his receptions prop, sitting at 2.5 on No House Advantage, is simply too low.
To further emphasize this, Palmer hauled in at least three balls in each of the five games this season in which Williams missed or exited early, and eclipsed five receptions in four of them. He also posted a solid six-for-99 outing against the same Jaguars' defense back in Week 3. Williams was active in that contest, but Allen was not.
As you will find out later on, I also expect the other Chargers' offensive weapons to have big performances on Saturday, but I feel the most confident that Palmer will finish with three or more receptions in what should be a closely fought, high-scoring affair.
George Kittle (vs SEA) under 5.5 receptions
George Kittle has been on an absolute tear recently, and if you played fantasy football this season, you may be aware that the Seattle Seahawks gave up the most fantasy points in the league to the tight end position. This might make this pick feel a bit sketchy at first, but allow me to explain.
Kittle's late-season explosion has mostly been due to touchdowns, of which he scored seven in the last four weeks alone. He even found the end zone twice against the Seahawks back in Week 15 and totaled 93 yards. Even in this contest, though, Kittle finished with four receptions.
Even though Seattle surrendered a league-worst 1,167 yards to tight ends, the team was 13th in receptions allowed to the position. In other words, tight ends, Kittle included, dominated the Seahawks with efficiency and not necessarily volume.
Regardless of the matchup, six receptions is a pretty high bar for Kittle to reach. The sixth-year pro recorded six or more catches on just three separate occasions in 15 games played this season. In one of them, Deebo Samuel was inactive.
Furthermore, Samuel missed Weeks 15 through 17, perfectly aligning with the beginning of Kittle's hot streak. Even with Samuel good to go for Wild Card weekend, I think Kittle can show out against Seattle's defense, which is why I avoided his 45.5 receiving yards prop. To expect six receptions just feels a little lofty, and it seems that other sportsbooks agree, with this line frequently sitting at 3.5.
Keenan Allen (vs JAX) over 77.5 receiving yards
This line doesn't stand out as particularly low, but I can't ignore Keenan Allen on this slate. Just as I outlined when discussing Joshua Palmer above, Mike Williams will not suit up against the Jaguars. Allen has been a target hog while sharing the field with Williams, so I imagine that Justin Herbert will be looking his way with absurd frequency on Saturday.
With that said, I don't mind the idea of choosing Allen to surpass 7.5 receptions, but I'd feel much more comfortable if that line was 6.5. I'm a little more confident in his yardage total this week as Allen has topped 80 receiving yards in six of his eight contests since returning from injury in Week 11.
Although Allen cruised past this line more often than not in that span, let's talk about the two games in which he fell short. One was a rather random DeAndre Carter day, with the 29-year-old posting seven receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. The other saw Allen take a backseat to Williams, who tallied 94 yards before the Chargers rested their starters for the fourth quarter in a blowout over the Rams.
With this playoff bout projected to be close, I don't anticipate Carter or any of Los Angeles' ancillary pieces getting a ton of volume. Herbert will depend on the trusty Allen early and often against a Jacksonville defense that allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the league this season.
Lower Confidence Picks - Wild Card Weekend (Saturday Slate)
Geno Smith (vs SF) over 0.5 interceptions
Just a few weeks back, Geno Smith managed to survive a matchup with the 49ers without an interception. I'm not sure he gets so lucky here in the playoffs.
Although Smith avoided turning the ball over in Week 15, he has been more prone to throwing picks as of late. Since Week 12, Smith has thrown seven interceptions. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, he had just four. One of them came in his first divisional showdown against the 49ers in Week 2, and this game was in San Francisco, as is the Wild Card matchup on Saturday.
I point this out because not only did the 49ers tie for the league lead in defensive interceptions during the regular season, but they did the vast majority of their damage at home. 16 of the team's 20 interceptions came in Levi's Stadium, and just one of their opponents managed to escape San Francisco without throwing at least one.
Predicting an interception is never easy, but the 49ers' defense at home is clearly the safest one to bet on in the NFL. Other sportsbooks seem to think so, as well, with Smith's odds of throwing an interception coming in between -148 and -180.
Marvin Jones Jr. (vs LAC) under 39.5 receiving yards
There were a handful of Jaguars props I considered here, but none of the others would have hit as consistently throughout the season as this one. Marvin Jones Jr. has taken a huge step back this year with Jacksonville signing Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram last offseason.
In the regular season, Jones averaged just 2.9 receptions for 33 yards per game. Skewing these averages is a season-best Week 5 outing in which the veteran racked up seven receptions for 104 yards. In total, Jones has surpassed 40 receiving yards just four times this year. He has finished five contests with fewer than 20 yards and was completely shut out for zero yards in two.
In Week 3, Jones found success against the Chargers by scoring a touchdown, but he recorded only 33 yards on four receptions. Zay Jones and Kirk were targeted more frequently by quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the contest, and both were more productive.
The Jaguars also did a ton of damage on the ground in their first matchup against Los Angeles with 151 rushing yards. The Chargers have been notorious for their run funnel defense over the past few seasons, so it's very possible we see Travis Etienne Jr. run wild on Saturday, which is why I like the over on his 77.5 rushing yards prop, as well.
Jones isn't the vertical threat he once was, but 40 yards is still achievable with just one or two big plays. Still, with Jones so quiet for much of the season, I'll take my chances. His receiving yardage prop is listed between 26.5 and 28.5 on other sportsbooks, so we're getting a nice edge here.
Gerald Everett (vs JAX) over 2.5 receptions
Yes, I am choosing another Charger's receiving prop this week. No, I am not as confident in this one as I am in the other two.
Gerald Everett's first season in Los Angeles has by far been the best of his career, but he has not been the every-week producer that many fantasy managers hoped he would become at the beginning of the year. His explosive performances have been few and far between, but his utilization, while limited, has been relatively consistent.
We only have a three-game sample of Everett playing a full allotment of snaps with Mike Williams sidelined, but in all three contests, Everett posted at least four receptions. With both Williams and Keenan Allen in the lineup from Week 14 on, Everett still managed at least three receptions in all but one of five games.
Aside from his potentially-expanded role with Williams out, I like this prop for Everett because of the matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars have been one of the worst defenses in the league against tight ends this year, allowing almost five receptions and 62.7 yards per game to the position.
Everett did fall just short of three receptions against the Jags back in Week 3 when he came down with just two of his six targets. I'm optimistic that he sees a similar amount of volume on Saturday, which should give him a good shot to cruise over 2.5 receptions as he did in 12 of 16 games this season.
Wild Card Weekend Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry
Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Wild Card Weekend Saturday slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.
You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!
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