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There are fewer games to wager on this week as the NFL has 6 teams on byes (don't worry, it's the last bye week!) We have some great games on the slate, though, and a few that have caught my eye for sides and totals.
Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Last Week: 2-2
- Season ATS: 21-20
- Season O/U: 9-18
- Season Overall: 30-38
NFL Betting Picks: Spreads/MoneyLine
Seattle -4.5 (-110 DK)
The Seahawks are a team that has made us some money this year, but they had me sweating out parlays last week as they needed to come back late in order to beat the Rams. This week they are at home against the lowly Carolina Panthers and I think we get a better performance from them in this one.
I have them favored by more than a TD here, they’ve simply been better than Carolina on both sides of the ball all season. While they have dropped to 6-6 on the season ATS, they’re still +2.9 in point differential and they’ve been pretty good at home (3-2 ATS and overall).
Kenneth Walker III could miss this week, but the Seahawks’ passing game has been excellent this season and I’m pretty confident they can rely on it here against a Carolina secondary that ranks 20th in the league in pass DVOA.
Seattle has their issues on defense, but Carolina has been so bad on offense (30th overall in DVOA) that I find it hard to believe they’ll be able to keep up with Seattle here. Sam Darnold is in at QB and I don’t know that he’s an upgrade over Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker. I just think Carolina is going to try to run the ball, and they might have some success, but they’re likely to have to make some plays down the stretch to hang with the high-powered Seattle offense and I don’t see it happening.
Seattle wins this one 24-13 and I think they cover with ease.
DET -2 (-110 DK)
This is the game of the week! Yes, the Lions opened as favorites here despite facing their division rival, the 10-2 Vikings and this spread has actually moved in their favor over the last few days.
Detroit looked damn good last week in dismantling the Jags and they feel like a team that is continuing to improve each week under Dan Campbell. Yes, they still have issues on defense and Minnesota is going to score some points here, but this offense is hitting its stride as Jared Goff is playing well and has a full complement of weapons in his employ.
Everyone who follows football (other than maybe some delusional Vikings fans) knows that Minnesota is probably the most overrated team at 10-2 team since the Steelers are years back. Detroit took them to the brink in their first meeting before finally losing late, and this time I think they put them away.
The Lions are 5-2 ATS at home this year with an awesome +6.6-point differential. This is finally the week that the Vikings aren’t able to pull it out and the Lions are set to humble them a bit. I’ll take Detroit at home to win an exciting 31-27 game against the Vikings in this one.
NFL Betting Picks: Totals
CLE-CIN OVER 47 (-110 DK)
Totals have been my Achilles heel this year, so I am keeping it to just one game this week. My model loves this over and my instincts tend to agree.
We have a really good Bengals team that is rounding into form on offense going up against a really bad Browns defense. Cincy gets their lead back Joe Mixon back and has both of their top receivers healthy again, too, as Chase and Higgins are good to go.
The Bengals are riding high, coming off a big win over KC, but I don’t think they let down here. They know the importance of this game and are likely anxious to get some payback after the Browns walloped them earlier in the year.
Most importantly for the total here is the Browns’ offense. They struggled last week against a bad Texans team and Deshaun Watson certainly showed some major rust. I think a full week of practice is likely going to make a big difference this week and we see a better performance from him. The Browns’ run game is already one of the best in the league, so a balanced offense is going to be hard to stop, especially for Cincy’s middling unit.
This game could shoot out, but we just need 48 points to hit, so something like 28-20 would do just fine.
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You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. Never hesitate to leave a team out of a parlay that you don’t feel good about.
4-TEAM ML FAVORITES PARLAY: BUF/DAL/PHI/KC (+115 DK)
This is another rather conservative parlay, but if you are looking for a safe way to try to double your money, then this works.
4-TEAM 6.5-POINT TEASER: KC/LAC/BAL/TB (+230 DK)
That takes the spreads to KC -2.5, LAC +10, BAL +8.5, and TB +10
I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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