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Last week I went 2-2 ATS and have been pretty decent so far this year on spreads, while my record below indicates I am still struggling on totals. I haven't been tracking the ML parlays and teasers on here, but those have been pretty decent and have been a boon to my bankroll in addition to props (more NFL props coming tomorrow by the way, sorry I missed last week).
Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Last Week: 2-3
- Season ATS: 20-19
- Season O/U: 8-17
- Season Overall: 28-36
NFL Betting Picks: Spreads/MoneyLine
Las Vegas ML (-115 DK)
I underestimated the Raiders last week and I won’t do that again. Especially since they are at home and in what is basically a must-win game for them if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive at all. The Chargers are in pretty much the same boat but are a full game ahead of them in the standings.
I expect a good bit of offense here and this is absolutely a game to target in DFS. But I like the Raiders matchup here a ton, especially on offense as the Chargers continue to get steamrolled by opposing running games. This one should be close, but I like the Raiders’ chances late in the game and I think Josh Jacobs is going to be too much for them.
NYJ +3 (-110 DK)
J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS! Don’t look now but everyone’s favorite team to make fun of over the years is rounding into form and a change at the QB position from Zach “your friends’ moms aren’t safe” Wilson to Mike White has done wonders for their offense.
Yes, last week was a perfect matchup for New York against a woeful Chicago defense, but Minnesota isn’t all that good on that side of the ball either. New York’s defense should keep them in this one, and I think they scratch out enough offense to keep this within a field goal or even pull off an upset. As much as I liked the Vikings preseason, I have to acknowledge that their advanced stats all point to a worse record than they have and they are definitely one of the weaker 9-2 teams we’ve seen in some time.
NFL Betting Picks: Totals
IND-DAL UNDER 44 (-110 DK)
The Colts’ offense has been one of the worst units in the league for most of the season and the brief hope that they’d somehow turned a corner under new coach Jeff Saturday was squashed when they lost to the lowly Steelers last week.
Dallas has one of the best defenses in the league and I expect them to pressure Matt Ryan all day long in this one as the Colts’ offensive line has struggled to protect him. The Colts have gone under their totals in 9 of 12 games this year and have a decent enough defense that they could slow down Dallas on the other side, too. This feels like a 24-10 type win for the Cowboys where they will likely be content to get a lead and run the ball. I’m on the under as it pops as the best value in my model overall.
GB-CHI OVER 44.5 (-110 DK)
This total has likely been held down due to the uncertainty that each team had at the quarterback position, but it’s looking more and more like both Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields could play in this game.
Chicago’s defense is atrocious and the Packers should be able to put up points here. As long as Fields is in the lineup for the Bears, I think they do their fair share of scoring as we saw what a mobile QB can do against the Packers last week when Jalen Hurts ran for nearly 200 yards himself (and Miles Sanders added over 100, too). This isn’t an NFC North matchup of the old days where it would be a hard-fought, defensive clash, this game has the potential to feature a lot of offense.
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You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. Never hesitate to leave a team out of a parlay that you don’t feel good about.
3-TEAM ML FAVORITES PARLAY: CLE/DAL/BAL (-104 DK)
This is UBER-conservative, but three big faves getting us close to even money ain’t bad.
4-TEAM 7-POINT UNDERDOG TEASER: NYG/DET/NYJ/CIN (+200 DK)
That takes the spreads to NYG +9.5, DET +8, NYJ +10, and CIN +8.5!
I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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