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Thank you for joining me today for my official DraftKings selections for this week's event. If you haven't had a chance to already, here is my Monday DraftKings article - a piece where I provided in-depth insight into my early takeaways for how the venue will play from a statistical perspective. While most of that information remains relevant, especially when discussing how I handicapped the event in my model, consider this article your final stop for all things DFS on Wednesday afternoon.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Houston Open
Here is an updated look at my model! I will be using this brand-new link until Wednesday night, and you will notice round one DraftKings pricing has been included, as well as new ownership totals and drift percentages.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Scottie Scheffler ($11,500) - I realize Scottie Scheffler's 22% ownership total is alarming for a golfer priced at $11,500 on DraftKings, but it is hard to ignore his 6/1 price tag to capture this title. My model loves Scheffler's metrics in all critical areas, ranking him as one of only three golfers to grade in the top 30 of every category I looked into for the tournament, and his first-place grade for weighted tee-to-green suggests that his game should best fit Memorial Park of anyone in the field. If the putter can continue to make strides, the sky is the limit for his potential this week.
Other Thoughts - Sam Burns ($10,700) and Tony Finau ($10,400) are within consideration and shouldn't be openly removed from player pools, but I am taking a strong stance on Scheffler this week because of the similar ownership marks for all three men. Russell Henley ($10,000) is my preferred choice over Hideki Matsuyama if trying to grab leverage in this range, but it is important to note that all five options rank inside the top eight of my model. It is hard to go wrong with any of these names, even if I am placing my chips in Scheffler's basket.
| Golfer | Rank |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1 |
| Sam Burns | 2 |
| Tony Finau | 3 |
| Russell Henley | 4 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 5 |
$9,000 Range
Aaron Wise ($9,900) - I've been advocating that Aaron Wise deserves to be listed as an elite golfer on tour, and we have reached that point in pricing, even without a recent victory. Wise's stats are pristine, placing inside the top 30 in all critical areas for the week, and while the ownership is troublesome at nearly 22%, all the recalculated totals suggest that Memorial Park is an excellent fit for his style. Wise ranks six spots above expectation in weighted tee-to-green, and his weighted proximity experiences a similar fate, jumping 13 slots into the top five. My goal is to see if we can get a reasonable outright price on him at some point Thursday, and I'd love to add him to my card at around 30/1.
Taylor Montgomery ($9,700) - A fraction of a percent separates the following three names that I am going to talk about from my model. If I am looking for safety in my build, Taylor Montgomery has shown that with five top-15 finishes to begin his PGA Tour campaign, but the other two options have shown a similar trajectory of safety, and I believe we will be able to get them for marginally less ownership. DFS golf is a numbers game, and the reduction in projected popularity from a golfer like Montgomery to McNealy is intriguing, especially since my model has them as close to 50/50 as can be for expected output. That doesn't mean I won't put the UNLV product into builds, but it does imply I will be more likely to grab leverage if it continues to present itself in other areas.
Jason Day ($9,500) - I ran my model to include the current approach metrics over anything else for Jason Day, and the Aussie jumped from 93rd in expected proximity to 21st. That was good enough to make him one of three golfers to grade inside the top 30 of every category that I attached a weight to this week - as you probably know by now, the other two were Scheffler and Wise - and the weighted tee-to-green increased from his projection of 44th to sixth when running it for this specific track. Day is number one in my model at courses over 7,400 yards, and if he can be anything like his old self when it comes to his around-the-green touch, this can be an ideal course for him to use his total driving and short game to get himself back into the winner’s circle.
Maverick McNealy ($9,400) - With back-to-back top 20 finishes at this course mixed in with four straight top 18 finishes on tour, Maverick McNealy will look to use his strong combination of scoring to keep the momentum rolling in Texas. The lack of upside my model sees for him in a few areas will keep him below Wise and Day, but I don't want that to be taken as a death sentence for his possibility to win this event.
Other Thoughts: There is a ton of leverage being provided by Sahith Theegala ($9,300) if you are looking for a golfer to shoot for the moon on this week. I don't necessarily trust his floor output, but we can get around that at under five percent in GPP builds. I ranked Joel Dahmen ($9,000) higher than him because of safety, but it depends what you are trying to get out of your lineup with this pick.
| Golfer | Rank |
| Aaron Wise | 1 |
| Jason Day | 2 |
| Maverick McNealy | 3 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 4 |
| Joel Dahmen | 5 |
| Sahith Theegala | 6 |
| Denny McCarthy | 7 |
$8,000 Range
Si Woo Kim ($8,800) - Si Woo Kim is one of the better upside climbers in my model and is in GPP consideration because of his weighted tee-to-green output and immaculate around the green game - the latter of the two placing him first in this field over his past 24 rounds.
Alex Noren ($8,700) - Noren's combination of par-four and par-five scoring is potent, and his recent run of results probably hasn't been as high-end as he has deserved in some of these starts. If the Bermuda putting and historical strength at challenging courses can continue, the Swede has a chance to blow past his three percent going rate. Consider him a strong contrarian target, and a way to get unique with your lineups.
Taylor Pendrith ($8,500) - I am getting some trepidation on this play since Taylor Pendrith features alarming totals for strokes gained around the green and Bermuda putting. If this were under 10 percent, I wouldn't bat an eye, but the fact that my model believes he is a top 10 owned golfer on the board does slightly shift my stance. I will include him on my list of golfers I will have exposure to this week, but the popularity is starting to run rampant.
Davis Riley ($8,400) - Riley has been a popular name catching steam over the past few days, but I consider this to be "good chalk." The same sentiment can be said about Taylor Pendrith, but Riley ranks slightly above the Canadian due to the nearly three percent difference in projected popularity. My model doesn't see a massive difference between the two, but the weighted totals to mimic the course are starting to push in the American's favor, something that is noteworthy when it also provides a reduction in ownership.
Adam Hadwin ($8,300) - It might not be the first time Adam Hadwin has been positively spoken about in an article, but it certainly is on a shortlist of moments where this has occurred. The Canadian's surge in my model places him in the top 15 of all iterations, and his expected increase in weighted tee-to-green makes me believe he has more high-end potential than usual at this course since this isn't the norm when I run my data.
Sebastian Munoz ($8,200) - Munoz's best shot will come from his total driving, par-four scoring and wind play, so if the week turns into a blustery mess, I think this would only benefit his potential win equity. I have placed a wager on him to be the first-round leader at 60/1.
Keith Mitchell ($8,100) - Leverage + upside is where I am going when I roster Keith Mitchell. There will be volatility present, but I am not sure there is a single name in this range with more long-term win equity if everything goes right than the American. Mitchell ranks first in my model for total driving, and the roughly five percent mark on Wednesday for ownership is highly intriguing for his ceiling potential. Sure, the floor is lower than most of these names, but we need to be aggressive if we want to win GPP contests.
Other Thoughts: The $8,000 section will be the great separator this week. Everyone is bypassing this range, but I will stack my builds to feature as many options as possible. There aren't any massive fade candidates between the 10 choices, and it should allow me to find myself overweight to the group.
| Golfer | Rank |
| Keith Mitchell | 1 |
| Alex Noren | 2 |
| Adam Hadwin | 3 |
| Davis Riley | 4 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 5 |
| Si Woo Kim | 6 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 7 |
| Andrew Putnam | 8 |
| Matthew Nesmith | 9 |
| Taylor Moore | 10 |
$7,000 Range
I will talk about some of the names that grade better for me than others, but that would be the top 15 $7,000 golfers I am looking to gain exposure to this week.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,800) - The categories pushing Patrick Rodgers down in my model are somewhat worrisome since a combination of poor iron play and shaky around the green metrics aren't ideal, but I will trust the recent form. Rodgers' four straight top-28 finishes have him popping at the right time to find success at Memorial Park.
Dean Burmester ($7,600) - I could do without the 15% ownership mark, but this feels like a mispricing for Dean Burmester. I will play this more conservatively and be neutral to the field when it comes projected ownership, something I don't always do, but I don't see a reason to fade from a statistical sense.
Aaron Rai ($7,500) - Quality leverage choice that ranks inside the top 10 of my model for driving accuracy. Before last week's missed cut, Rai's safety had been on full display, providing seven made cuts in eight events. I like that floor for a golfer who will struggle to reach five percent ownership.
Robby Shelton ($7,300) - Let's ignore last week's missed cut. My model thought Mayakoba was a horrible venue for his skillset, which is one of the reasons he was my head-to-head fade of the week, but if he can find himself neutral on Bermuda, the intangibles are there with his short game and scoring to get himself back on track.
Danny Willett ($7,200) - Inside the top 12 at courses over 7,400 yards and strokes gained around the green, Danny Willet has found something to begin his 2023 season, producing three made cuts, which includes a second-place finish at the Fortinet. That result should have been a victory.
David Lipsky ($7,100) - I wish I could redo my pick on the PGA Draftcast because I likely would have shifted from Stephan Jaeger to David Lipsky. Both options rank right next to each other on my model, but cutting Jaeger's ownership in half by pivoting to Lipsky would have been an intriguing proposition to make for my already top-heavy lineup.
Additional Options To Consider: You can use that image above. I will also include some of my additional choices in the final section below.
$6,000 Range (Top Options To Consider)
If push comes to shove and I find myself stuck in this $6,000 range, these are the names I am at least considering for the week.
Charley Hoffman ($6,800), Harry Hall ($6,400) - The UNLV army of Charley Hoffman and Harry Hall! We know both are incredible wind players because of their time in Vegas, and while the $6,000 range doesn't have a ton that excites me, those were two options that popped in multiple areas. I don't have an issue fitting anyone into builds from that group above, but I would be cognizant of ownership when constructing lineups. Some options will work better than others in specific rosters.
Options I am Prioritizing:
| Player | Price |
| Scottie Scheffler | $11,500 |
| Aaron Wise | $9,900 |
| Jason Day | $9,500 |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,400 |
| Alex Noren | $8,700 |
| Davis Riley | $8,400 |
| Adam Hadwin | $8,300 |
| Keith Mitchell | $8,100 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,800 |
| Aaron Rai | $7,500 |
| Robby Shelton | $7,300 |
| Danny Willett | $7,200 |
| David Lipsky | $7,100 |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,800 |
| Harry Hall | $6,400 |
Options I am Playing But At Lesser Exposure (Relatively Speaking):
| Player | Price |
| Taylor Montgomery | $9,700 |
| Si Woo Kim | $8,800 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $8,500 |
| Sebastián Muñoz | $8,200 |
| Harris English | $7,800 |
| Alex Smalley | $7,600 |
| Dean Burmester | $7,600 |
| Adam Long | $7,400 |
| Brandon Wu | $7,300 |
| Martin Laird | $7,200 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $7,100 |
| Mark Hubbard | $7,100 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,000 |
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