RADIO
We're officially past mid-season and if that doesn't make you sad enough, how about the fact that even the trade deadline has passed us now? Eh? Was that what ultimately broke your hopes of football staying on forever? Too bad. The good news, as always, is that a new week full of games is ahead. And most importantly for us (and me, who writes this) is that another week is in the books and we're ready to crunch some more data!
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 8 - The Running Game Is Alive!
I have mentioned one of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players through this series of articles: Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with rushers-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
Last season, the NFL introduced the concepts of:
- Expected Rushing Yards (xRY; How many rushing yards is a ball-carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed, and direction of blockers and defenders?)
- Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE; The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays)
- Rush Pct Over Expected (ROE%; The percentage of runs where a ball-carrier gained more yards than expected)
I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column, "ruFP/15Att", which is accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 40 rushing attempts.
Running Backs Efficiency
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-22%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Remember, the more "efficient" a rusher is, the lower amount of yards he "wastes" going headfirst toward the opposite goal line in a straight route.
Say goodbye to Week 5 leaders in EFF and welcome your new-and-only sub-3.00 EFF player in Panthers RB1 D'Onta Foreman. D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert did it the last time we check but it's now Foreman alone in a league of his own.
Of course, Foreman only has 53 totes over the full season compared to Tony Pollard's 81 or even Josh Jacobs' 121. Those three, along with Herbert, can be considered the most "reliably efficient" rushers through Week 8.
At the other end of the spectrum, Chase Edmonds, Cam Akers, and Brian Robinson have all been wasting yards in bunches. Their actual FP/15Att marks don't help their cases either, as they rank in the third and fourth quartiles and only Edmonds' 8.6 FP/15Att is above 6.5 such fantasy production.
In a very contrasting way, though, Edmonds and Akers have not faced stacked boxes even in 10% of their total carries compared to Brian Robinson's 29.6% stacked-box rate.
There is not a single rusher averaging more than 10 FP/15Att while wasting more than 3.84 yards (Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler). In fact, only Henry, Ekeler, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are part of that 19-player group while having EFF marks above 3.70 yards.
Both Ekeler and Henry have already scored 5+ TDs each through Week 8, which is clearly boosting their per-attempt fantasy averages. Removing those "bonus" points coming from touchdowns, their tallies go all the way down to just 6.8 FP/15Att (third quartile among qualified rushers).
Among all the 50 qualified RBs for Week 8, the average EFF is at 3.81 yards, the same as three weeks ago when we checked for the last time.
- Rushers with EFF marks below 3.50 are averaging 9.6 ruFPPG
- Rushers with EFF marks above 4.00 are averaging 5.3 ruFPPG
Of 19 rushers with averages of 10+ ruFPPG through Week 8, the average EFF for them sits at 3.41. Those with averages of <8 ruFPPG have an average EFF of 4.24.
Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 20%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
The correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points is so minimal that it doesn't make much sense to be overly worried about it, if anything at all.
Don't throw away stacked boxes completely given that almost non-existent relation, but keep in mind that it is heavily related to the role a player has on his offense and to what teams expect from him.
With Isiah Pacheco missing the 40-carry cut by just one measly tote, it's now Kenyan Drake leading all qualified rushers in stacked-box rate by a world of distance at 44.9%. 22 of his total 49 carries have been against packed boxes.
On the larger picture, though, 22 8+D carries only rank joint-17th in the NFL with Derrick Henry's 60 (in 166 rushing attempts) leading all players followed by Nick Chubb's 48. No other RB is past 36 (Saquon Barkley).
Stacked boxes have worked against Drake, Caleb Huntley, and Tyler Allgeier so far this season, limiting them to just one touchdown each. Not so much against Henry (seven TD) and Chubb (league-leading 10 TD).
It might look counterintuitive, but all four players with fewer than a 10% stacked-box rate have yet to score more than two touchdowns this season. That includes Aaron Jones, who has a fifth-best 8.8 FP/15Att mark through Week 8 when leaving touchdowns out. His "true" FP/15Att mark is a bit worse, ranking 21st out of 50.
Ekeler and Edwards-Helaire are the only two rushers with 10+ ruFPPG who have faced stacked boxes in fewer than 17% of their carries. Ekeler has faced 10 such defenses and CEH only eight.
Najee Harris and Cam Akers trail all qualified rushers in ruFPPG through Week 8. They have faced totally opposite defensive schemes, though, with Harris going against 21 total 8+D (19.4%) and Akers only 3 (5.9%).
Looking at the metric from a pure FPPG perspective, the top-12 per-game scorers at the position have faced 8+D an average of 25.1% of their attempts. Among those, only Dalvin Cook (19.3%) is below 20%.
On the other hand, the bottom-12 FPPG rushers are facing stacked boxes 17.9% of the time on average. If we remove Kenyan Drake's outlier 44.9% from the group, that average goes all the down to 15.4% 8+D rate for the other 11 players part of it.
Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-1%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
You might think that TLOS and EFF are related, as a north-south rusher should spend less time behind the line of scrimmage. With five weeks on the books already, the relation sits at a ridiculous negative 7%. I mean... nothing linked between these two things, I'm afraid.
The relation between TLOS and actual fantasy points is also pretty much nonexistent, so this metric can be discarded when analyzing players in fantasy leagues and trying to predict their outcomes.
Three of the quickest rushers with 40+ carries through Week 8 have only rushed the rock 54 times at most. AJ Dillon, who ranks fourth in the TOLS leaderboard, has done so 87 times. Consider the Packer your true honcho of this stat, and if you don't, then make Ezekiel Elliott that man thanks to his 2.66 mark in 109 carries or Joe Mixon's 2.70 in 129 totes.
Nick Chubb is the only rusher with 100+ carries through Week 8, spending more than three seconds (3.11) behind the LOS. It seems like a trait more than a fluke, though, considering Chubb ranks third in the NFL in rushing attempts.
Henry and Barkley, the top-two players in carries with 166 and 163, respectively, are spending the exact same time (2.74 seconds) behind the LOS on average through Week 8.
Of the nine qualified rushers with TLOS marks below 2.70 seconds, only one has scored more than four touchdowns this season: Jamaal Williams (eight). Of the nine with TLOS of 2.90+, as many as three have five or more TDs.
When it comes to team-backfield groups, Atlanta has three rushers qualified through Week 8 and all of them have TLOS marks between 2.81 and 2.88 seconds. That is the smallest separation between any group of three teammates. The smallest one between a two-man backfield is Chicago's with just a 0.03-second gap.
The largest differences belong to Denver (three rushers separated by 0.41 seconds) and Arizona (two rushers separated by 0.34 seconds).
Only two of the 15-quickest rushers are averaging double-digit FPPG: Latavius Murray and Jamaal Williams. Only Williams has rushed the ball more than 50 times, though.
- Rushers with 10+ FPPG through Week 8 are averaging a 2.84 TLOS
- Rushers with <6 FPPG are averaging 2.81 seconds behind the LOS.
As stated earlier, there might be a little something to this, but it's ridiculously insignificant to give it any importance at all for fantasy purposes.
ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 70% / 78% / 33% / 74%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Three-way tie at the top of the YPC leaderboard halfway through the season! Pollard, Herbert, and Travis Etienne Jr. all are currently averaging 6.2 yards every time they rush the rock. Rashaad Penny is the only other rusher above 6.0 yards who still qualified.
That top-three can be considered on a balanced field as all of them have rushed the ball between 81 and 92 times. Among rushers with more than 100 carries, though, Chubb and Jacobs lead the way tied at 5.6 YPC each through Week 8.
If the top-three rushers in YPC had the same amount of carries as league leader Derrick Henry (166), they would have broken the 1,000-yard barrier already through Week 8. So would have Rashaad Penny.
Jamaal Williams's YPC of 4.5 might be a bit misleading considering he's the actual third-best FP/15Att player this season. That is, of course, tied to his excellent touchdown-scoring production with eight TD through Week 8.
Williams and Ekeler (both 4.5 YPC) are the only rushers averaging 12+ FP/15Att with a YPC mark below 5.2 yards. Latavius Murray (4.0 YPC) is averaging 11.7 FP/15Att, although he's only carried the rock 48 times.
Nick Chubb is the only player with double-digit scores through Week 8. He's needed 149 carries to reach that mark, though, compared to Jamaal Williams' eight TD in just 102 carries. These two are still posting the best two Att/TD ratios but Williams is scoring every 12.8 touches compared to Chubb's 14.9.
Najee Harris has the most carries with only one score (108) while Joe Mixon has the worst Att/TD ratio having 2+ TDs and needing 64.5 carries per touchdown. Leonard Fournette comes next among multi-TD-scorers at 56 carries per TD.
YDS & RYOE & Y/A & RYOE/A & ROE%
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 78% / 51% / 33% / 40% / 22%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Starting last year, the NFL introduced the concept of Rushing Yards Over Expectation. Basically, it comes down to the extra yards a rusher gained (or lost) in a given play given the context of that play (down, distance, defender positional data, etc...).
- The RYOE metric indicates how many extra yards the rusher gained/lost on his carries over/under those he actually rushed for. Ex: YDS = 100, RYOE = 10, then the rusher was expected to rush for 90 yards, but overperformed that mark by 10 (RYOE) thus getting to 100.
- The RYOE/A metric indicates the average extra yards gained/lost per rushing attempt. Ex: Y/A = 0.5, RYOE/A = -1.5, then the rusher was expected to rush for 2.0 Y/A but underperformed that mark by -1.5 (RYOE) thus getting 0.5 Y/A.
- The ROE% metric indicates the percentage of rushing attempts the rusher exceeded the expected yards (gained more yards than expected). Ex: ATT = 10, ROE% = 50.0, then the rusher gained more yards than expected in five of 10 (50.0%) of his carries.
Travis Etienne Jr. living up to the hype this season once and for all... is he? Etienne is joint-first in RYOE/A with 2.4 yards above expectation, the same mark posted by Tony Pollard through Week 8. Only one other player (Khalil Herbert) is at 2.0+ RYOE/A so far. None of the three has reached 100 carries yet.
Nick Chubb is the rushing beast of the first half of the season considering production and volume. His 1.9 RYOE/A mark is the fourth-best in the NFL through Week 8 but he's sustained that level of "over" production through 149 carries. No other player has passed a 1.1 RYOE/A (Saquon Barkley) while having rushed the ball 100+ times.
Four players have overachieved in more than half of their rushing attempts (ROE% of 50 percent or higher): Caleb Huntley, Aaron Jones, Etienne, and Chubb. Huntley leads the league by doing so on 56.1% of his carries, but it must be said that he has the fewest number of totes among those four with 57.
As much as he's tried, Najee Harris has overperformed in just 28.6% of his carries. That is the lowest rate for anyone with more than 54 carries through Week 8. The next-lowest mark among players with 100+ totes belongs to Jamaal Williams, already up at a ROE% of 34.7 percent--though he's more than made up for that with his eight TDs.
Only one rusher among the 16 posting averages of 10.0+ FPPG has underperformed with a negative RYOE mark (Latavius Murray at minus-0.4 yards). Dalvin Cook has done what the model said he should sitting at a square 0.0 RYOE among those in this group of 16.
At the opposite end, of the 17 rushers with averages of <6.0 FPPG only four (23.5%) of them are on the positive side of the RYOE leaderboard, although just two (Caleb Huntley and Kenyan Drake) have figures of 1.0+ RYOE through Week 8.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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