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Justin looks at fantasy football busts, players who didn't live up to expectations last week, but should bounce back in Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season.
NFL football is here and Week 1 was full of exciting football—minus the Sunday night game. Relegate the Cowboys.
While a lot of stars excelled this week, especially wide receivers like Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson, there were some players who we expected to see more from.
Below, I'll look at some of the players who struggled in Week 1 but should still be positioned to succeed going forward.
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Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne's overall numbers in Week 1 were weird. Real weird.
Etienne had just four carries, but he finished with 47 rushing yards. He was targeted four times, catching two passes for 18 yards. He also dropped what would have been an easy walk-in touchdown.
The fact that James Robinson got so much more usage than Etienne is concerning, as Robinson had 11 carries to Etienne's four.
But the split of who was on the field looked pretty close, as Etienne actually played two more snaps than Robinson. And while Robinson found the end zone, Etienne's production on the touches he got stood out.
Yes, there were issues:
and
But the ways they tried to get him involved were promising. Trevor Lawrence wants to push the ball to Etienne. Etienne looked like he had his explosiveness still. His role is going to increase every week. Robinson will remain a looming threat, but Etienne is such a talented player. Lawrence knows that. Don't worry about his Week 1 underperformance.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
The Bears/49ers game was played in some really bad weather. The field was a lake.
That weather might help explain how David Montgomery had 17 carries but finished with just 26 yards. He also added three receptions for 24 yards.
That was a wildly inefficient game for Montgomery. 1.53 yards per carry in the game is the worst mark of his NFL career.
But that's just it: it was the worst game of his career and there's a pretty easy excuse for why that was. I don't think it portends anything in the long term for Montgomery.
Montgomery was on the field for 66% of the Bears' offensive snaps. Of his 38 snaps, he had a touch or target 21 times. Chicago wanted to get Montgomery involved.
The game situation just wasn't cooperating.
Montgomery has to contend with Khalil Herbert siphoning off some touches from him, but he's still the lead back in this offense. I'm downgrading him a little because of Herbert's usage, but Montgomery is still a solid fantasy RB2, albeit with a lower floor than we expected.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings looked really good in Sunday's 23-7 win over the Packers, but Adam Thielen didn't really. The veteran receiver was targeted just four times, catching three passes for 36 yards.
But here's the thing: despite not getting going, Thielen was on the field for 59 snaps, which was 95% of Minnesota's offensive snaps. That was actually two more snaps than Justin Jefferson. K.J. Osborn was on the field for 42 snaps, but he was the only other wide receiver who saw the field.
Osborn, for comparison, was also targeted four times, catching three passes for 14 yards.
Jefferson is a star. He's the main option for Kirk Cousins and he's going to post some big numbers this season, leaving the rest of the options on this team fighting for scraps.
But Thielen is still best positioned to get those scraps. Don't panic drop Thielen for one bad week. As long as his snap rate remains this high, he'll have the opportunity to get back on track.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb's about to deal with some major issues at quarterback, as Dak Prescott will miss a good bit of time with a hand injury:
Unless the Cowboys make a move at QB, this means we're looking at Cooper Rush as the Cowboys quarterback. Yikes.
In Week 1, Lamb finished with just two receptions for 29 yards, though he was targeted 11 times. Rush was 0-for-2 when targeting Lamb.
It was a really terrible start to the season for Lamb, who just couldn't get anything going.
But here's the thing: volume still matters. Lamb showed that he might not be equipped to have dominant games as the Cowboy's WR1, but if he continues to see 10-ish targets per game—and, well, he should, based on the lack of talent in this passing game—then Lamb will deliver. He might not live up to his fantasy draft status, but you can at least get serviceable fantasy WR2 numbers with Lamb getting this many targets.
Did you draft Lamb to be a WR2? Not really. But Week 1 feels about as close as we can get to his absolute rock bottom. Cooper Rush isn't as good as Dak Prescott, but he played fine in his one career start, throwing for 325 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings last year.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Consistency has never been Mike Williams' strong suit.
Looking at his career game log, you learn some interesting things. He's never had back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. Last season, he ended up following his first 100-yard game of the season up with a one-catch, 11-yard showing the next week, and then followed his second 100-yard game last year up with two catches for 27 yards.
So, bad games happen for Williams. The reason you play him is because he has the talent to bounce back from those bad games.
Willaims was targeted four times in Week 1, catching two passes for 10 yards. It was his worst game in terms of yards since Week 7 of 2020, when he had one catch for four yards. The next week, Williams had five catches for 99 yards and a score.
Anyway, this week we saw the Chargers target no player—none!—more than four times. Justin Herbert was spreading it around, with Zander Horvath, DeAndre Carter, and Gerald Everett catching touchdowns.
It was a weird week for Los Angeles.
But Williams played 93% of the team's snaps. And with Keenan Allen now dealing with a hamstring injury, Williams is heading into Week 2 as the team's top receiver. His target share will increase. Week 1 was fluky. DeAndre Carter and his 37% snap share aren't going to cut into Williams' upside every week.
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