RADIO
After taking a week off to cycle across Iowa for seven days, we jump from the bike saddle back into the content one, which is much more endearing to certain areas of the body. While I joined 15,000+ people in a crazy journey across the corn-riddled landscape of the Midwest, Tony Finau joined only a handful of golfers to win back-to-back events in the Midwest.
As one of the nicest guys on tour, it seems like any doubts of Finau being a choker (I am guilty of this accusation) can now be put to rest. He has been sensational the last two weeks and should be an absolute contender throughout the playoffs, particularly at the Northern Trust, where he won last year. Luckily, he is not in the field this week which gives others an opportunity to hoist a trophy for once.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Course Breakdown and Key Stats
Sedgefield Country Club, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,131, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Donald Ross
The tour heads to one of the most predictive of venues regarding course history. Guys like Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, and others, have all played remarkably well here every time they have teed it up. It is a short Par 70 that sees 61% of approach shots taking place from 125-200 yards. With so many shots taking place inside 200 yards, green in regulation numbers are five percent higher than tour average. However, the tricky Bermuda rough creates headaches for those that miss the fairway, limiting control on approaches which leaves tougher putts on these nuanced green complexes.
With the greens being tougher than most tour pro's see throughout the year, we will have a larger emphasis on putting this week. Scores have typically been really low around Sedgefield and we can expect similar scoring conditions if the weather permits. Birdie or better percentage will be a key scoring metric this week.
Below are the settings for the model:
- We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 70% 2022 stats and 30% 2021 stats.
- Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (70%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%), course history (10%).
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more. Adam Svensson was a definite consideration, but his odds shortened a little too much over the last day or two to include him on the card.
Mark Hubbard ($1.76 @ +7000 on DraftKings)
Mark Hubbard enters the week with some of the best approach numbers in the field and will tee it up on a course that rewards his "accuracy over distance" driving ability. He has also been putting quite well lately and has a reasonable course history with two top-25 finishes in his last three starts here. If he can continue the form he showed before missing the cut on the number last week, we should have ourselves a contender in the form of Homeless Hubbs.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($2.46 @ +5000 on BetMGM)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout finds himself on the card courtesy of his sensational putting. He has been cooking with his putter lately and his irons have been spiking over the last few weeks. If we can get lucky with his putting and iron play spiking in the same week, he has shown he can go low at both the Byron Nelson and John Deere Classic. His driving accuracy is also in the top quarter of the field which should prove helpful around a tight Sedgefield CC. Hopefully my fellow South African can grab his first PGA Tour win this week.
Joohyung Kim ($3.75 @ +3300 on BetMGM)
Joohyung "Tom" Kim has played in only seven PGA Tour events this year and has essentially secured his card on tour next year with his third-place finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. His only missed cut came at the PGA Championship where a rogue putter derailed his chances. However, Kim has the skill profile required to succeed here, boasting incredible accuracy off the tee and an approach game that has immense upside. His putter has been a little cold the last few starts but maybe a switch to Bermuda greens sparks the flat stick, which can take advantage of his steady tee-to-green game.
Kevin Kisner ($3.08 @ +4000 on DK)
The defending champ makes the card as a result of his stellar course history and some recent ball striking numbers that are better than we typically see from Kevin Kisner. His lack of distance and above-average driving accuracy should help him keep pace with the field on a ball striking front. He is one of the best putters on tour and one of his most rewarding surfaces is Bermuda. If he can continue to gain from tee to green at Sedgefield, as he has done for most of the last decade, his putter should once again set him apart from the rest of the field.
Davis Riley ($2.46 @ +5000 on BetMGM)
Davis Riley's last three starts have been rather poor. However, what we saw from him in May and most of June was sensational golf, with five consecutive finishes inside the top-13. If we can get a bounce back from Riley, who leads the field in birdie or better percentage, this number is really appetizing as he has shown immense upside and the ability to get into contention over the last little while. He took a month off after the Travelers Championship and his last two starts since have been rather disappointing, so hopefully the rust has been shaken off and he returns to the form we saw earlier in the summer.
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First-Round Leaders
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $11.50 on eight guys to net $110 or more. With no significant wind advantages in either draw, we are rolling out most of our outrights for First Round Leader bets, minus Bezuidenhout, who is replaced by prolific FRL scorer, Billy Horschel.
Billy Horschel ($3.11 @ +4000 on BetRivers)
Joohyung Kim ($2.48 @ +5000 on BetRivers)
Kevin Kisner ($2.48 @ +5000 on Ceasars)
Davis Riley ($1.87 @ +6600 on BetRivers)
Mark Hubbard ($1.56 @ +8000 on Ceasars)
Placings
We have eight placing bets, with four top 20 and four top 40 bets. With a top-heavy field, the top 20 market is a little stingy this week, but we have some gems in the top 40 section which could create a bit of noise for us.
Russell Henley (T20: $8.75 @ +145 on FanDuel)
Corey Conners (T20: $8.75 @ +140 on Ceasars)
Aaron Wise (T20: $8.75 @ +175 on FanDuel)
Mark Hubbard (T20: $8.75 @ +330 on FanDuel)
Brendon Todd (T40: $8.75 @ +130 on DK)
Vaughn Taylor (T40: $8.75 @ +430 on FanDuel)
Joel Dahmen (T40: $8.75 @ +170 on FanDuel)
Ryan Moore (T20: $8.75 @ +400 on FanDuel)
The Farewell Fiver
Aaron Wise (T5: $5 @ +750 on Ceasars)
With a tinge of FOMO coming from not having a peaking Aaron Wise on our outright card, the Farewell Fiver could be called the FOMO Fiver this week. Wise is playing fantastic golf right now and should sniff around the top of the leaderboard most of the week. Hopefully he finishes second to one of our outrights.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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