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Happy Hump Day, MLB bettors! It's your boy Thunder Dan and I'm back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, July 27th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Luis Castillo o6.5 vs. MIA (+118 FD)
Castillo has been in great form recently, and perhaps he’s making one final audition for a trade to a contender. His projection is a bit lower than I’d like, but I am leaning on his strong recent uptick in performance lately and Miami’s overall anemia on offense.
UPDATE: Castillo just opened on DK at 5.5 (-150), smash that over there!
Braxton Garrett o4.5K vs. CIN (+112 FD)
Garrett is still getting no respect, despite smashing this number against the Pirates the last two starts. The Reds’ offense is better than Pittsburgh’s, but there are still plenty of strikeouts here and Pablo Lopez got them for 11 last night. We are still buying low on a talented guy here, and I want to ladder him up to around 7 on FD.
Kevin Gausman o5.5K vs. STL (-150 DK)
Gausman is already at 6.5 on FD, and might get there on DK, too. I’m iffy on hitting him at 6.5, based on his fluctuating K counts, but remember that this Cardinals team is without NL MVP frontrunner Paul Goldschmidt and their second-best hitter, Nolan Arenado. Berrios got them for 7 last night, and Gausman has better stuff than he does.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
Detroit Tigers ML (+120 DK)
The Tigers have given the Padres fits this series as they nearly came back to win last night, too, despite San Diego leading 3-0 for much of the game. My model likes them to win behind a strong start from Tarik Skubal. Their offense is trending up and their bullpen has been improved, too. The value is on the Detroit side here, we know Darvish can be volatile, too.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-105 DK)
The Snakes are all over the Giants in this series, and while San Fran does have Logan Webb going here, Zac Gallen has been just as good. The Giants are much less scary on offense against RHP, and this pesky Arizona lineup continues to find ways to score runs. Give me the home dogs, once again.
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120 DK)
Toronto is absolutely rolling on offense and hands the ball to their best (or second-best if you’re a Manoah fan) starter, while the Cards have to rely on 100-year-old Adam Wainwright throwing 50 curveballs. Again, neither of the two best hitters from STL will be in the lineup, so a big advantage to Toronto here.
Texas Rangers ML (-120 DK)
Jon Gray is the real deal and capable of shutting down the Mariners’ bats. Marco Gonzales is what he is - a decent pitcher. A big advantage in starting pitcher here to the Rangers, while both teams are pretty even on offense.
Baltimore Orioles ML (+105 DK)
The Orioles just refuse to suck this year, they’ve been one of the best teams against the run line and are winning games they aren’t supposed to (like last night against McClanahan). I view Rasmussen and Wells about evenly, but I give the Orioles bats and bullpen the advantage here.
LAA/KCR under 9 runs (-120 DK)
These offenses suck, so I am not sure why we would expect 10 runs from them tonight. KC has been without Bobby Witt Jr. and was held in check by Jose Suarez last night of all people. The Angels have been scoring a bit more, but get Kansas City’s most reliable arm here in groundball machine Brad Keller. Give me the under.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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