Undervalued Hitters At Every Position - 6 Fantasy Baseball Value Picks

Jamie's 6 fantasy baseball sleeper hitters for 2025 drafts. His ADP analysis to help target undervalued players, and also to avoid overpriced players.

Finding value in drafts goes a long way to helping fantasy managers win championships. To help you find some value picks on offense, we will look at a hitter in each position that you can draft who is set to put up similar numbers to someone at the same position. But, they'll be going much later than their counterpart.

We'll be using Yahoo! for the player's ADP (average draft position). As well as comparing the players' ATC projections, we'll also look at last year's numbers and any other circumstances that are set to determine why you can find later-round value at every hitting position.

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Catcher Draft Targets, Avoids

Overvalued:
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles - ADP 73

Draft Instead:
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers - ADP 126

ATC Projections Comparison

The most notable difference between Rutschman's and Smith's projections is the number of games they will play. That's largely down to the expectation that Shohei Ohtani will use the Dodgers' DH (designated hitter spot) in the lineup and leave fewer chances for Smith to DH.

However, the Dodgers will also not overwork Ohtani while he gets back to pitching. As long as Smith is hitting well enough, he'll get some extra games as the DH. That should make up the difference in the counting stats being projected.

How will the Dodgers manage Shohei Ohtani’s workload in 2025? 🤔 Dave Roberts doesn’t have the answer just yet. Read more on the team’s approach to balancing Ohtani’s impact. ⚾️💭

🔽🔗https://t.co/aFhalcSLME

— Dodgers Nation (@DodgersNation) March 3, 2025

In 2024, Smith played 128 games. That was 20 fewer than Rutschman, who had 94 more plate appearances than the Dodgers catcher. Despite significantly more trips to the batter's box, Rutschman hit one fewer home run and nine fewer runs. But he did drive in four more runs than Smith.

The duo also had near-identical batting averages, although Smith did get on base more and hit for more power. Smith's slash line on the year was .248/.327/.433 while Rutschman's was .250/.318/.391. Smith has a career .258 batting average, so we can anticipate some improvement from last year.

Rutschman did hit .277/.374/.435 in 2023 so a slight improvement in his batting average this year seems likely too. While volume is important, Smith proved that he could put up similar numbers to Rutschman with fewer at-bats. There doesn't appear to be anything to justify ~50 places difference in drafts.

First Base Draft Targets, Avoids

Overvalued:
Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks - ADP 68

Draft Instead:
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals - ADP 117

ATC Projections Comparison

There is one clear and obvious difference between these two. And that is the stolen bases. However, that doesn't make the ~50-pick difference warranted. A few extra stolen bases will help, of course. However, you'll be looking for your steals elsewhere and not relying on them from the first base position.

The other big difference between Pasquantino and Naylor has been health. Pasquantino's 131 games last year were a career-high in the Majors. He played just 61 games in 2023. Last year's fractured thumb that saw Pasquantino miss the final month of the season was due to a freak collision at first base.

In 2023, Pasquantino underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum. Something that appeared to have no ill effects last year. In 2022, Pasquantino played 145 games across Triple-A and the Majors, so there isn't a significant record of injuries that would make you think twice about drafting him.

Pasquantino suffered a "grade 1 hamstring strain" at the weekend. However, he's optimistic about playing on Opening Day. That is yet to be determined, but it appears that Pasquantino has avoided any serious injury. Any missed time to begin the season should be minimal.

Naylor hasn't been the picture of health himself. He did play 152 games last year but missed 41 games in 2023 and 40 games in 2022. His 2022 missed time was due to a serious ankle injury Naylor suffered in 2021. In 2023, an oblique injury sidelined Naylor.

Like Pasquantino, we don't have a record of ongoing multiple health issues. While we can never rule out injuries occurring, there shouldn't be any additional concerns with Naylor or Pasquantino. If we just look at their numbers, the difference between the two is negligible.

You can make a case for Naylor being in the better lineup. Arizona is more hitter-friendly, and the Diamondbacks led the league in runs scored last year. Naylor is replacing Christian Walker, who had 26 homers, 84 RBI, 72 runs, and two steals in 130 games last year.

On a per-game basis, that's what we're looking at from Naylor. Pasquantino tallied 97 RBI in 121 games last year so outperforming their projections and both of them reaching 100 RBI is very plausible. Similar profiles and production make it difficult to justify ~50 picks between them in drafts.

Second Base Draft Values, Avoids

Overvalued:
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves - ADP 47

Draft Instead:
Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles - ADP 83

ATC Projections Comparison

Second base is arguably the weakest fantasy position in 2025. The lack of depth has seen the best five options at the position move up in drafts. Positional scarcity has seen this pair go earlier than they perhaps would have if they were first basemen, for example.

Still, Westburg looks like a considerably better option in terms of value at their current ADP. On a per-game basis, their numbers would be almost identical, with the only thing Albies has over Westburg being a track record. Albies also has a checkered injury history.

Albies has alternated healthy seasons with ones where he missed considerable time. In 2021, he played 156 games, and in 2023, he played 148 games. In 2022, Albies played just 64 games, and then he only played 99 games last year. It is worth noting that in both of the healthy seasons, Albies reached 30 homers.

But he only hit 10 home runs in the 99 games last year, so projecting 20-25 homers this year seems about right. There's a question mark over where both of them will hit in the lineup. Albies predominantly hit second for the Braves last year. But the eventual return of Ronald Acuna Jr. may mix things up.

Atlanta's free-agent acquisition Jurickson Profar is expected to bat leadoff this year, having recovered from an injury earlier in spring. Albies is being penciled in to hit sixth in the lineup, which will hurt his fantasy value. That's before Acuna returns in May, as anticipated.

Profar ended up taking BP yesterday. The Braves are off tomorrow and they're in Tampa on Wednesday night. So, they may wait until Thursday to put him back in the lineup. He can get as many at-bats as he needs during Minor League games as well. https://t.co/Y6q87nwAOv

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) March 17, 2025

Westburg had at-bats everywhere in the lineup except ninth. The Orioles scored 786 runs last year, which was the fourth most in MLB and 82 more than the Braves (15th most). That helped Westburg to a 162-game pace of 95 RBI and 86 runs. Albies' 162-game pace was 87 RBI and 85 runs.

Westburg's playing time is something of a question mark, given the multitude of options in Baltimore. His ability to switch between second and third base not only helps his fantasy value, but will also keep him in the lineup enough to provide similar value to Albies, just at a discount of three rounds in drafts.

Third Base Draft Values, Avoids

Overvalued:
Mark Vientos, New York Mets - ADP 91

Draft Instead:
Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks - ADP 147

ATC Projections Comparison

Looking at their projections, Vientos appears to be worth drafting ~55 spots before Suarez. However, with only a handful of home runs being the difference, that may be harsh on the veteran. Suarez has reached 30 home runs in five of the last six full seasons, including 30 homers in 2024.

Suarez has been one of the most consistent power hitters in recent years. He's averaged 154 games over the last four seasons, missing just four games since the start of the 2023 campaign. Since 2021, Suarez has averaged 28.5 homers, 90.75 RBI, 76.25 runs, and one steal.

Eugenio Suarez is a great ADP value around pick 180 and a great trade target in dynasty for contending teams.

Surarez ranks 6th in HR and 6th in RBI since 2018 OD.
Last 7 Full Seasons average: 80 R, 32 HR, 93 RBI#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/n1hkwCyBVI

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 17, 2025

His slash line across the last four years is .231/.316/.436. If Suarez was to match his projected numbers, it would be a down year. At 33 years old, that's not to say we won't see some regression. But after hitting just 22 home runs in 2023, we saw a bounce back last year.

We've also mentioned the Diamondbacks having the most prolific offense last season. There's nothing to suggest we don't see similar in 2025. There's also nothing to not like about Suarez this year. And that's not to say Vientos should be avoided in drafts after he showed off his power last year.

After limited opportunities in the Majors over the prior two seasons, Vientos played 111 times for the Mets in 2024. He homered 27 times with a .266/.322/.516 slash line. It's quite likely that both players end up having 30+ home run seasons.

Providing Suarez doesn't regress somewhat out of the blue, there's every chance he can match or even outperform Vientos. At their ADP, you're taking Vientos earlier for the upside. But Suarez's level of consistency can't be discredited. The veteran should provide more value at their current ADP.

Shortstop Draft Values, Avoids

Overvalued:
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres - ADP 147

Draft Instead:
Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros - ADP 201

ATC Projections Comparison

The shortstop position is deeper than any other. Although it is top-heavy, there is no shortage of intriguing options later in the draft. Of those mid to late-round options, it seems to make more sense to wait on Peña rather than taking Bogaerts. Normally, I'm more "pro boring veteran."  Not here.

Last year was Bogaerts' worst season in a decade. Not helped by missing almost eight weeks with a fractured shoulder, Bogaerts hit just .264/.307/.381 with 11 home runs, 44 RBI, 50 runs, and 13 stolen bases. A bounce back of sorts is possible, and that's reflected in his projections.

Meanwhile, Peña had something of a bounce-back season himself in 2024. After a disappointing sophomore campaign in 2023, Peña hit .266/.308/.394 with 15 homers, 70 RBI, 78 runs, and 20 steals last year (157 games). A repeat of that would see Peña outperform his projections.

Peña has also been on a tear this spring. It appears as though the change in his approach has been paying dividends in pre-season. If that translates into the regular season, Peña is a sneaky breakout candidate.

Joe Espada said to the media that Jeremy Peña has really been working on his approach to at-bats.

He was expecting a sinker from the pitcher and nailed it for a grand slam.

In 24 at-bats, Peña is batting .417 with an OPS of 1.250. He has 3 homers this spring. pic.twitter.com/E2qv61Rpl1

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) March 15, 2025

I don't think anyone should be surprised if Bogaerts has a rebound this year. But of the pair, it's more likely we see Peña have a career-first 20/20 season. Bogaerts will more than likely put up solid, not spectacular, numbers. And the same goes for Peña.

But given their respective ADPs, only one of the two is likely to provide good value. As much as drafting a boring veteran as an anchor in the middle of your drafts makes sense, I'd rather skip over this one and take the Astros shortstop a few rounds later.

Outfield Draft Values, Avoids

Overvalued:
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies - ADP 154

Draft Instead:
Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants - ADP 211

ATC Projections Comparison

Speaking of boring veterans available in the middle of drafts, Castellanos is the poster boy for that role. And he is someone I'd be fully advocating drafting at his current ADP. However, if you're willing to draft Castellanos where he's currently going, Ramos should be near the top of your wishlist.

The only difference between the duo's projections is the RBI and run totals. Part of Ramos having a lower total for both is the expectation he'll play fewer games. Jung Hoo Lee has been dealing with a back issue and Ramos' playing time isn't in much jeopardy.

"I don't want to overreact, but it's not good news... I'd rather hear 'Jung Hoo Lee is hitting third today and got two knocks' instead of 'Jung Hoo Lee's in a tube right now getting an MRI on his tight back." @knbrmurph & @MarkusBoucher on the ominous JHL MRI news. pic.twitter.com/cipO1yKSUJ

— KNBR (@KNBR) March 17, 2025

Ramos was used across all three outfield positions last year and the Giants don't have any standout options to replace him in the lineup. Mike Yastrzemski, Luis Matos, and Jerar Encarnacion are expected to be the other outfielders on the Giants' roster.

Ramos was a near-everyday player after his May call-up, playing in 121 of the Giants' 125 remaining games. With a .269/.322/.469 slash line and 22 homers last year, Ramos merited the playing time with his bat. Like Castellanos, he will need to perform with the bat, as their defense isn't good.

The Giants also look to have improved their offense this year. The addition of Willy Adames adds some thump in the order while Tyler Fitzgerald has an intriguing power/speed combination. Ramos is likely going to hit in the heart of the lineup so those projected RBI and runs totals look a little low.

Ramos could easily hit closer to 25 homers than 20, and the same goes for Castellanos. The Phillies outfielder hit 23 home runs in 2024 and 29 homers in 2023. Castellanos's consistency is what makes him such a solid fantasy option.

Castellanos is a "set and forget" player. You put him in your lineups every week, and you know what his numbers will be by the end of the season. Over the last two years, he's averaged 159 games, 26 homers, 96 RBI, 80 runs, and nine steals with a .263/.311/.454 slash line.

A season with those numbers would make Castellanos a welcome addition to any fantasy lineup. And they're not dissimilar to Ramos's 162-game pace from last year. Extrapolated over a full season, Ramos would have had 29 homers, 96 RBI, 72 runs, and eight stolen bases.

If both outfielders played 162 games in 2025, they would likely have very similar numbers. Castellanos is someone who should not be ignored in drafts at his ADP. That just makes Ramos an even greater value option, going ~60 picks later.

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