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Andy's 5 fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers - hitters and pitchers from the AL to prioritize in 2025 drafts. These upside players are strong value picks.
Fantasy baseball managers are always looking for the next breakout in their drafts. Normally fantasy baseball breakouts are relatively young and have just begun to scratch the surface of their professional careers.
While some have flashed elite upside at the major league level, others have yet to make their MLB debut. More importantly, these players are being drafted relatively low (compared to other players at their position) on the current ADP even though they carry immense upside.
If these players live up to their potential, they can very well be drafted at the top of their respective positions next season. In this piece, I will analyze five players from the American League who are set to take their game to a new level in 2025. The ADP in this piece is from NFBC Drafts from mid-February through mid-March. Let's dive in!
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Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Houston Astros
ADP: 205
Spencer Arrighetti made his MLB debut in 2024 and was a "work in progress" through most of the summer. During the first half of the season, Arrighetti held a hefty 5.63 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP across 80 innings. He tallied 93 punchouts but served up a high 44 free passes (5.0 BB/9).
However, after the Midsummer Classic, Arrighetti flipped the script. Over his final 65 innings of the season, the 25-year-old posted a strong 3.18 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. He tallied 78 strikeouts with only 21 walks (2.9 BB/9). Removing one blow-up start where he logged just two outs and allowed three runs, Arrighetti held a strong 2.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
During the second half, Arrighetti tallied double-digit punchouts in three outings.
His curveball (second-most-used pitch) was the catalyst for his improvement, as it showed steady improvement during his rookie season. As shown below, his curveball allowed elite contact during the first half but was a dominant pitch in the second half. In June, that pitcher generated a .279 xwOBA, but it generated a near-perfect 0.096 and a 0.159 xwOBA in July and August.
This pitch also generated elite whiff totals. Throughout the season, his curveball generated an elite swing-and-miss rate in the zone and peaked during the final months.
Given his improving control and development of his elite secondary pitch that generates high strikeouts, Arrighetti could be in store for a massive 2025 season.
Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
ADP: 176
Austin Wells has struggled to find consistency during his young career but took significant strides forward at the end of the 2024 campaign. In the first half, Wells held a modest .216/.309/.377 line. However, in the second half, the backstop saw his production improve as he held a .241/.333/.412 line.
His production is noticeable when looking at his output against offspeed pitches, especially from a power perspective. His xSLG against offspeed pitches showed steady improvement throughout the 2024 season and took an even more significant jump in the second half.
In addition, he saw his swing-and-miss rate in the zone against offspeed pitches steadily improve during the second half as well.
From a broader standpoint, Wells drew walks at an elite 11.9 percent rate, placing him in the 89th percentile among qualified hitters. He also generated a strong .339 xwOBA, which was also above average.
With Jose Trevino now in Cincinnati, Wells is in line to see a career-high in plate appearances. Given his improvement in the second half, Wells could be an excellent low-end No. 1 catcher to target with a viable path to finishing near the top of the position in 2025.
Matt Wallner, OF, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 263
After appearing in only 18 MLB contests during his debut 2022 season, Wallner went on to appear in 76 and 75 games over the next two seasons, respectively. In 2023, Wallner enjoyed a "mini-breakout" as he held a .246/.359/.519 line across his final 62 contests. During this span, he went deep 13 times.
He was poised for a true breakout in 2024 as he opened the season as the starting left fielder but was unfortunately sent down to the minors after April due to early season struggles. However, Wallner returned to the big leagues in the second half and flashed his immense power upside once again.
Over his final 55 contests, the 27-year-old held an impressive .272/.376/.538 line with an eye-catching .914 OPS.
Under the hood, Wallner generated elite power metrics that place him among the best sluggers in the sport. He generated a 17.5 percent barrel rate, 53.2 percent hard-hit rate, .358 xwOBA, and a 77.3 mph bat speed, all of which were well above the average marks.
With Max Kepler now in Philadelphia, Wallner has a viable path to (once again) claim a full-time role. However, he may have a better chance of success operating on the strong side of a platoon, which he will likely do to open the 2025 season.
His career production against right-handed pitching (.970 and .953 OPS in 2023 and 2024, respectively) suggests he could carry 25+ HR upside even in a somewhat limited role. Wallner is one of my favorite targets in five outfielder leagues, and his metrics suggest he is a budding power hitter who is poised to reach the next level.
Jackson Jobe, SP, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 250
Jackson Jobe only had a brief cup of coffee in the major leagues but is destined for a 2025 breakout. After progressing quickly through the minor leagues, Jobe was promoted late in the 2024 campaign. With Detroit, he tossed just four shutout innings. However, he is viewed as a favorite to claim a spot in the starting rotation, which will provide him ample opportunities to succeed.
The former third overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft made his professional debut in 2022. During that campaign, he spent most of his time in the lower levels. In 2023, he spent most of his season at High-A before earning a brief taste of Double-A.
In 2024, before reaching the majors, Jobe logged 73 2/3 innings with Double-A Erie and held a stellar 1.95 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He tallied 81 punchouts but did serve up a high 31 walks.
However, the budding ace has already begun to address this problem as he added two pitches to his mix to improve his ability to finish batters in two-strike counts.
Jobe is an excellent late-round target when looking to add some upside to your rotation. Given his prospect pedigree, Jobe should be near the top of the AL Rookie of the Year voting all season.
Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 77
Jordan Westburg carries the highest ADP on this list but has yet to reach his "true" potential. Last season, Westburg posted a .264/.312/.481 line with 18 home runs and six stolen bases across 107 contests. He missed time during the second half due to a hand fracture.
His underlying metrics suggest he is a budding star who has been overshadowed by top prospects in the system such as Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, and Jackson Holliday.
In 2024, Westburg placed in the 88th percentile in xwOBA and 92nd percentile in both xBA and xSLG. The 26-year-old placed in the 80th and 77th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rate, respectively.
While he only went deep 18 times, fantasy managers should expect the number to soar in 2025. In the offseason, the Orioles adjusted left field in Camden Yards, making it more conducive to hitters, especially for right-handed bats.
In addition to his budding power metrics, Westburg placed in the 91st percentile in sprint speed, which suggests he could even carry a 20/20 upside if the Orioles allowed him to showcase his speed.
The Mississippi State product has the upside to finish as an elite second and third baseman. Do not be surprised if he is a consensus late-second, early third-round selection in 2026.
I can't stop drafting #Birdland Jordan Westburg. 💥
90th %ile xBA/xSLG, .264/.314/.481, 18 HRs (more to come w/ Camden Yards tweaks)
80th %ile barrel/hard-hit rates
92nd %ile sprint speed 🚀🔥
FIRE ME UP (93.6 ADP @TheReal_NFC )#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/5Ht2BAY9QC— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 27, 2025
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