Outfield Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates: High-Upside Draft Targets for 2026

February 5, 2026

Andy's high-upside outfield breakout candidates, sneaky 2026 later-round draft values to outperform their ADPs. Draft the next fantasy baseball breakouts including Jac Caglianone, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Beavers, more.

Every season, managers look for the next league-winning lottery ticket in the final rounds of the draft. Last season, past pick 200, managers could have selected George Springer, Nick Lodolo, Byron Buxton, and Nico Hoerner, who all greatly exceeded their ADPs and tuned in career-best seasons.

In this piece, we will spotlight five outfielders who are going past pick 200 in NFBC drafts who could not only provide value at their price but also become must-start players for the upcoming season. Be sure to check our top breakout starting pitchers past pick 200 as well.

Who are the top late-round outfielders you should target in the later rounds of your draft? Let's dive in!

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Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 218.5

Sitting just outside the top 200 picks is former top prospect Jac Caglianone. Caglianone joined the Royals with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Florida. The former Gator made his professional debut later in 2024, which set him up well for an early 2025 debut.

He began the 2025 campaign with Double-A Northwest and quickly established himself as a prime stash candidate. Through 38 games, Caglianone posted a remarkable .322/.394/.553 line with a .947 OPS. He hit nine home runs and held a 37:19 K:BB. He was then bumped up to Triple-A, where he would slash an elite .326/.380/.767 line with six long balls over 50 plate appearances before joining the Royals.

Unfortunately, the team's top prospect struggled in his MLB debut. Caglianone would post an underwhelming .147/.205/.280 line through his first 41 MLB games with only five round-trippers. He would then miss time with a hamstring injury and would show some minor progress in his last 12 games, posting a .176 AVG.

However, managers should take the discount on the budding superstar in the 2026 drafts.

Caglianone hit fastballs for a modest .256 wOBA in his debut season. However, under the hood, the slugger generated an elite .372 xwOBA, suggesting better days are ahead. He should also see positive regression when facing breaking balls (.234 wOBA - .293 xwOBA) and offspeed pitches (.207 wOBA - .248 xwOBA), but not as prominently as compared to fastballs.

When looking at his batted-ball metrics, Caglianone actually generated a higher fly-ball rate in the majors (34.2%) than he did during his time in the upper levels of the minor leagues (31.3%), which is a great sign going forward. He also generated an elite 77.4 average mph bat speed with a 12.0% barrel rate, suggesting his raw power profile is legit and could be the driving force for a massive breakout in 2026.

Lastly, Caglianone (and the entire Kansas City lineup) received some positive news in January. The team announced that they would bring the outfield walls in by eight to 10 feet in some places and lower the height from 10 feet to 8.5 feet in most places. While this is not a drastic change, Kauffman Stadium posted the lowest HR grade (73) for left-handed hitters over the past three rolling years, according to Statcast Park Factors. Any slight adjustment will give left-handed sluggers like Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino the ability to reach a higher ceiling that was never possible.

When looking at his playing time, Caglianone appears poised to see a near-everyday role in right field. While the team could look to platoon him early on, his elite Arm Strength (98th percentile) should help keep him in the outfield, and the lack of proven depth behind him should give him enough job security in the first half.

Not many players going past pick 200 have 30+ HR upside. Caglianone is one of them. While the floor could be low (and even result in a demotion to Triple-A) at this point in the draft, you should be targeting upside, and Caglianone fits that bill.

Jac Caglianone to See Everyday Role in 2026? https://t.co/S1bTaeRECZ

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) January 19, 2026

Daylen Lile, Washington Nationals

ADP: 206.7

The 23-year-old began the season at Double-A but needed only 21 games to make the jump to Triple-A Rochester. With the Red Wings, Lile once again immediately made an impact, posting an impressive .337/.407/.500 line with a .907 OPS across a 26-game stint, which earned him a much-earlier-than-expected ticket to D.C.

Through his first 91 games in the majors, Lile was quite impressive, posting a .299/.347/.498 line with nine home runs and eight stolen bases. He generated an 80th percentile xwOBA (.348) with a 100th percentile .302 xBA. Additionally, he placed in the 92nd percentile in sprint speed, suggesting his speed production is quite sustainable and that there may even be another attainable level.

From a power perspective, the 2021 second-rounder generated a 44.2% LA Sweet-Spot rate (100th percentile), showing that while Lile did not make elite hard contact (40.1% hard-hit rate), he was very opportunistic and hit the ball at the ideal launch angle. He also generated a strong 20.1% air-pull rate, further showcasing his ability to hit the ball effectively (from a power perspective).

The Trinity HS product also posted a low 36.2% ground-ball rate, suggesting that his 2025 "mini" breakout was legit and that he could put together an even more impressive 2026 season in a full-time role in D.C.

For those points leagues, Lile holds just as much sleeper appeal as evidenced by his 83rd percentile 16.0% K%.

Lile should be pencilled in for an everyday role in Washington, either as the DH or a corner outfielder. Lile possesses five-category upside that could push for a 20/30 season given his projected playing time and underlying metrics.

DAYLEN LILE, INSIDE-THE-PARK HOMER IN EXTRAS 🤯 pic.twitter.com/QUmqYNemFQ

— MLB (@MLB) September 20, 2025

Carson Benge, New York Mets

ADP: 383.7

Even though Benge has yet to step on an MLB diamond, he is a prime breakout candidate who is likely going undrafted in some leagues. The Oklahoma State program joined the Mets in the opening round of the 2024 MLB Draft and nearly debuted last summer. He began the 2025 season with High-A and quickly progressed through the system, finishing the season with Triple-A Syracuse.

Through 92 games split between High-A and Double-A, Benge held a .309/.418/.507 line. He showed a five-category skill set, hitting 11 home runs and stealing 21 bases while posting a 72:61 K:BB. During his first 24 games at Triple-A, Benge unfortunately hit a bit of a roadblock, hitting a low .178/.272/.311 line. However, he did finish strong, posting a .320/.452/.680 line over his last seven games, suggesting he began to make some necessary late-season adjustments.

Given New York's current outfield situation (and missing out on free-agent outfielder Kyle Tucker), Benge appears primed to compete for a job in spring training. Currently, the Mets have Tyrone Taylor penciled in as their everyday left fielder, with Luis Robert Jr. and Juan Soto covering center and right field. Taylor holds a career .238 AVG with a .706 OPS, and is not expected to open camp as the overwhelming favorite over Benge.

While his late-season metrics at Triple-A slightly lowered his overall stat line, Benge finished his 2025 season, generating a .324 BABIP with a 150 wRC+. Benge is a must-watch name in spring training. If he can continue to progress against high-end pitching, he will make the Opening Day roster.

He would have legit 20/20 upside in a full-time role and should see opportunities to tally ample counting stats batting in a productive Mets lineup.

Carson Benge a Name to Closely Monitor in Camp https://t.co/1va6gQ1G19

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) January 15, 2026

Dylan Beavers, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 322.8

Dylan Beavers spent most of the season with Triple-A Norfolk and was playing at a high level before receiving the call. Through 94 games with the Tides, Beavers posted a dominant .304/.420/.515 line with a .935 OPS. He launched 18 home runs and added 23 stolen bases.

Once he reached Baltimore, Beavers hit four home runs and stole two bags while carrying a modest .227/.375/.400 line through his first 35 MLB contests. While playing time is a concern for the time being due to Baltimore's crowded outfield, Beavers' upside is legit and is well worth a selection at this price.

During his brief stint in the majors, Beavers showed an elite eye at the plate with a 19.0% BB% and an 18.9% chase rate. He generated an above-average .344 xwOBA, which is right in line with his base .344 wOBA. Beavers was also an elite runner on the basepaths, posting an 89th percentile sprint speed.

Where Beavers shines is his batted-ball profile. The No. 83-ranked prospect on MLB.com generated a stellar 29.7% ground-ball rate (even lower than his 32.0% ground-ball rate he posted at Triple-A) with a 48.6% fly-ball rate and an elite 26.7% pull-air rate. While his 35-game sample size should encourage you to pump the brakes before crowning him the next star in the majors, this is an excellent start to his career and shows he has the raw skill set to become a legit five-category fantasy asset.

Currently, he is expected to compete for at-bats in right field with Tyler O'Neill, as the DH spot will likely be occupied by both backstops, Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo, for most of the season. Even if he begins the campaign as a platoon, Beavers is a must-target in deeper five-outfielder category formats.

Only three prospects (Under Age 25) met all of the below thresholds in 2025...

400+ Plate Appearances
.280+ Batting Average
15+% Walk Rate
Sub-20% Strikeout Rate
.180+ ISO

Dylan Beavers, BAL
Alfredo Duno, CIN
Ryan Waldschmidt, ARI

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) December 28, 2025

Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 380.3

Rounding this list out will be a deep sleeper. Dominic Canzone appeared in a career-high 82 MLB games last season for Seattle and was quite impressive. During this stint, Canzone posted a .300/.358/.481 line with 11 home runs and an .839 OPS.

Under the hood, Canzone generated an elite .376 xwOBA, .290 xBA, and a .533 xSLG, all of which were above the average marks. The Ohio State product asos posted a 14.4% barrel rate and a strong 49.6% hard-hit rate. However, Canzone was a strong-side platoon, making just seven total starts against southpaws.

Looking at his production during his 67-game stint in Seattle in 2024, Canzone took major strides in 2025. The 28-year-old saw his barrel rate rise by three points (11.1% - 14.1%), xwOBA rise by nearly 60 points (.310 - .376), and hard-hit rate jump by five points (44.4% - 49.7%). He also lowered his strikeout rate by seven points (28.2% - 21.9%).

Slated to begin the season as the team's primary DH (albeit on the strong side of a platoon), Canzone is a sneaky late-round target for those in deep 15+ team leagues. If he begins to take on a larger role, he would have starting outfield upside in standard leagues given the incredible underlying metrics.

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