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Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 15. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Welcome to the eighth installment of our Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs article. We continue to trust the expected statistics, and they continue to provide us with the answers to who's real and who isn't. Enjoying the run that Kyle Stowers is on? We told you a month ago he'd stay on track, and you're hopefully reaping the benefits.
Heading into Week 15, we still need to do a bit of digging to help you find those diamonds in the rough that can help you win your fantasy championship. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.
We'll break down four more hitters, three of whom are rookies and the fourth a veteran whose name most fantasy managers are familiar with by now. We will determine who's real and who isn't among Trevor Story, Jo Adell, Otto Lopez, and Ceddanne Rafaela. Now, let's get into it. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, July 6.
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Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox
2025 Stats: .702 OPS, 93 OPS+, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 44 R, 14 SB
The first Boston player we'll be focusing on today is Story. The infielder got off to a rough start this season. He hit for a .704 OPS in April and a .432 OPS in May. Not exactly the marks you're looking for when we are evaluating someone who's supposed to be breaking out. But since June 1, he's hit for a .915 OPS, very reminiscent of his best years in Colorado.
So is this breakout for real? Let's dive into it.
Trevor Story’s resurgence completely changes the complexity of this team. Since the calendar flipped to June, he has a 151 wRC+. Had he not turned it around, it’s hard to imagine he’d still be on this team. He’s been a game changer. pic.twitter.com/OwD4P0bWOK
— Josh Ball (@JoshBall22) July 7, 2025
Let's start with his plate approach. The first thing we can notice is that his walk rate is way down, dropping to 4.5% on the season. This has been a trend for Story over the past few seasons, outside of an injury-shortened 2024, as his walk rate in 2023 was also low at 5.4%. Generally, he's walked around 8% of the time, so seeing a decrease isn't the best news off the bat.
His strikeout rate is sitting at 28.3% on the season. Still a high number, which is to be expected with Story, but a decrease of a couple of points from his prior years in Boston. At his best, that rate sat around 25%. That can help explain some of June's bump in production, as he saw his strikeout rate drop to 26% in June.
Examining his batted ball profile reveals several notable differences between his current performance and previous seasons. This year, he's hitting groundballs at a 44.9% rate, a career high for him. Flyballs are down to 37.7%, the lowest number he's ever put up, while his line-drive rate sits at 17.4%, also a career low.
This is an area that Story will need to focus on in order to improve down the stretch and keep that June hot streak rolling.
One thing he's done to overcome this increase in groundballs is simply hitting the ball harder. He's seen his hard-hit rate jump to 47.3% (career 43.1% mark), and his barrel rate is up to 10.1% on the season, the fourth-best number he's posted in his career. That's helped drive an increase in his HR/FB rate, which currently sits at 15.7% for the season.
He hasn't posted a number that high since 2019 when he hit 35 HRs for the Rockies.
With 14 HRs on the season, it's hard to see him catching up to that number, but it's reasonable to expect him to finish with 25 bombs or so if that number doesn't drop.
Trevor Story launches this baseball over EVERYTHING! pic.twitter.com/t2yayFyFB2
— MLB (@MLB) June 11, 2025
As we examine the expected statistics, they begin to indicate that Story's performance this season is mainly in line with what should have been expected. He's hitting for a .307 wOBA to go along with a .309 xwOBA, meaning the numbers are true. If we take a peep at BABIP, we see he's hitting for a .320 mark this season.
That generally means we're likely to see negative regression from hitters, but Story has a career .331 BABIP. Some of that is due to five really strong seasons in Colorado (BABIP of .330 or better in all seasons), but some of that can point to the type of hitter Story is. Since he's hitting the ball harder, this will mitigate some of the negative regression we'd normally expect.
As we look at how pitchers have attacked Story this season, three pitches paint a pretty clear picture of who he is as a hitter. The pitch he faces most is four-seam fastballs. He sees them at a 34.1% rate and just is not doing the normal damage to them that we expect. He's posting a .233 wOBA to go along with a .261 xwOBA.
Positive regression, yes, but a .261 xwOBA is not a good number to see.
The next two pitches he's had much more success against. He faces sinkers 16.3% of the time and hits them for a .383 wOBA that's paired with a .408 xwOBA. He sees sliders 15.8% of the time and hits them for a .387 wOBA to go along with a .375 xwOBA. Both of those pitches, regardless of positive or negative regression, are clear strengths of his, and pitchers need to avoid those as much as possible, especially if they have a good four-seamer they can throw him.
The rest of the pitches he sees all have relatively accurate results and low usage marks, outside of two pitches. Sweepers and cutters are ones he's clearly been getting lucky on. He faces sweepers 7.2% of the time and hits them for a .354 wOBA (.251 xwOBA). He sees cutters at a 5.1% rate and hits them for a .378 wOBA (.301 xwOBA).
Although the percentages are low, these are clearly pitches where negative regression will soon come into effect, and pitchers should stick with it, even though they're currently getting decent results.
Verdict: Story's turning on the burners right now, but the full season picture says that's probably going to level out sooner rather than later. The drop in production on four-seam fastballs is concerning to me, given that it used to be a strength of his, and pitchers attack him with it the most.
It probably won't get any better for Story than it is now, so if fantasy managers wanted to trade him off to a manager willing to bite, then it might not be a bad idea. He'll contribute to your roster, but temper your expectations in the near future as his 93 OPS+ is pretty accurate.
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
2025 Stats: .823 OPS, 126 OPS+, 19 HR, 52 RBI, 35 R, 3 SB
It's hard to be a standout player on the Angels when Mike Trout's on your roster. After all, Trout's an incredible talent. Since returning from injury on May 30, all Trout has done is hit 13 bombs while driving in 31 RBI with a .446 wOBA. That's just what Trout does and...wait...that's actually Jo Adell's stat line since May 30? YEESH!
Adell has been absolutely on fire and has helped get the Angels back into the wild-card race. No one's catching the Astros in the AL West, but Adell's offensive production has helped the Angels reduce their wild card deficit to just 4.5 games. For a team that didn't have lofty expectations this season, Adell's helping to propel them into the playoff conversation.
But is this recent surge something real? Let's take a look.
Jo Adell’s career high home runs in a season was 20, which he set last year.
This was his 19th home run before the All-Star break! pic.twitter.com/smlzHEEVvW
— Brad (@StatsBrad) July 5, 2025
Looking at his plate approach, the 26-year-old has made a nice improvement in the strikeout category. He's dropped his strikeout rate from 27.9% last season to 23.5% this season. With how hard Adell hits the ball, more balls in play are generally a good thing for him. At the same time, his walk rate is slightly down from 7.8% to 7.4%.
That's not all that concerning, as it's essentially the same. The positive news here is the drop in strikeouts, and that's a good thing for a guy like Adell.
From a batted ball perspective, we're seeing a bit of movement from last season. For starters, his ground-ball rate is up from 35.5% last season to 38.6% this season. That may not seem like great news, but it's important to note that in 2023, he had a 48.5% ground-ball rate, though that was in just a 17-game sample size.
His career rate sits at 39.3%, so his 38.6% rate this season isn't as concerning as it could be.
With flyballs, we're seeing a drop from 46.1% to 41.1%. However, in the same light as grounders, he has a career mark of 41.4%, so this is just who he is now. For line drives, he's increased those from 18.4% to 20.3%.
The big increase we'd like to see is his HR/FB rate. That's jumped from 15.4% up to 23.5%. The only other time he had posted that high a rate was in 2023. But, as we mentioned, that was just a 17-game sample size. This season's mark is over 236 more PA, so this is much more sustained.
He's already at 19 HRs, just one behind his mark last season, and if this keeps up, he should be in line for around 35 or more HRs.
Now to the expected stats. Do you like positive regression? Then you're going to really like this. Adell's currently hitting for a .356 wOBA to go along with a .399 xwOBA. That's a really sizable gap, indicating there's even more in the tank for Adell. His .264 BABIP backs up the fact that more positive regression is on the way, though last season he hit for a .244 BABIP, so we may not see that number increase to the .300 mark we'd expect.
But a positive bump is coming for Adell.
look at Jo man, so inspirational 💫
Adell launches his 11th home run in June! pic.twitter.com/L5Tyy5orS6
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) June 28, 2025
Given how pitchers are attacking him, we've seen two significant improvements. The first will be four-seamers. Adell sees them 31.7% of the time and is hitting them for a .350 wOBA to go along with a .433 xwOBA. Those numbers last year sat at a .276 wOBA and a .290 xwOBA. He's seeing them much better this season and is hitting them equally as well.
An 83-point swing in positive regression on his top pitch is a great thing for Adell.
The second pitch he's improved on is sliders. Last year, he hit them for a very respectable .345 wOBA that was paired with a .377 xwOBA. It was already a strength, but it has improved significantly in 2025. Now he's hitting them for a .525 wOBA to go along with a .467 xwOBA.
Negative regression, sure, but that .467 xwOBA basically makes him Aaron Judge. The only issue with the pitch is he's whiffing on them at a 40.2% rate, but when he's making contact, it's clearly an incredible result.
There are really only two weaknesses Adell has had this season, and that's sweepers and curveballs. He's hitting sweepers for a .290 wOBA to go along with a .253 xwOBA. With curves, he's hitting them for a .142 wOBA to go with a .214 xwOBA. Pitchers who aren't trying to throw him curves or sweepers are making a gigantic mistake.
Verdict: Adell's breakout is more than real. The stats back it up and then some, pointing towards even more positive regression that he can expect. Fantasy managers need to buy in now and do all they can to keep him on their roster. If another fantasy manager is willing to let him go, then the cost you're going to pay is probably going to be worth it.
Adell's one of baseball's best offensive options this season, and he's only going to continue to improve as the season goes along.
Otto Lopez, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins
2025 Stats: .704 OPS, 94 OPS+, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 38 R, 9 SB
We mentioned Stowers earlier, and last week we evaluated Agustin Ramirez. Now to see what we've got with Otto Lopez.
Lopez played 117 games last season for Miami and hit for a 90 OPS+. Not great, but respectable. He was very much a contact hitter that didn't provide much power but hit for a .270 BA that translated to a .302 wOBA. That's only a bit below his .310 wOBA this season. Last year, the statistics suggested that he may have been a bit unlucky.
So what about this season?
OTTO LOPEZ YOU ARE UNBELIEVABLEEEEE pic.twitter.com/e1abRaiVZI
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) June 29, 2025
Starting with the plate approach, we see two positive things. First, his strikeout rate is down from 17.3 percent to 13.9%. Both numbers are fairly low, but it means more balls in play for Lopez. Sometimes, that can get him in trouble, as his hard-hit rate only ranks in the 20th percentile, but generally, it's okay.
We're also seeing that he's increased his walk rate from 5.8% to 8.9%. That's a sign that he's seeing the ball a bit better this season and is being smarter about what he's swinging at.
In fact, Lopez has seen his swing percentage drop from 51.5% to 45.3%. He has also reduced his chase rate from 32.9% to 28.2%. Being more selective has certainly helped him reduce his strikeout rate and increase his walk rate.
From a batted ball perspective, we're seeing more positives as well. His ground-ball rate has dropped to 48.1% from 53.6% last season. That's still a high number that we'd like to see even lower, but it's nonetheless positive momentum. His fly-ball rate has also increased from 25.5% to 32.9%.
Same as with grounders, not overly impressive but a strong step in the right direction. With line drives, he's hitting them at a 19.0% rate, just down from 20.9%. Both are fine numbers that Lopez should continue to strive for.
He's also seeing his HR/FB rate jump from 7.1% last season to 11.8% this season. It's already helped him surpass his six HRs last season as he has nine already in 2025. Based on FanGraphs' projections, we can expect him to finish with close to 15 HR this season.
Now moving on to the expected stats. Just as we saw with Adell, Lopez is on the verge of some positive regression. He's hitting for a .310 wOBA, but that's paired with a .364 xwOBA. His .266 BABIP also points toward positive regression. But that's a rather large gap for someone who doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, so why are the stats saying what they are?
Otto Lopez 2B/SS MIA
pic.twitter.com/1CzGWYKRr1 https://t.co/xtSQlMOdke
— Uncle Ed (@UncleEdMLB) July 7, 2025
We have to dive into the pitch mix for those answers. To start, pitchers throw him four-seamers more than any pitch. He's hitting them for a solid .388 wOBA that's paired with a .438 xwOBA. At a 50-point gap, he's clearly getting unlucky here. He also has a 49.2% hard-hit rate on the pitch. Might you be interested to know that's the exact same number for our previously highlighted player, Jo Adell?
As we move onto the next two pitches, these are two more where we're expecting positive regression. He sees sliders the second-most of any pitch at a 19.0% rate. He's hitting them for a .296 wOBA to go along with a .333 xwOBA. Not overwhelmingly great, but positive regression.
Then we move on to sinkers. He sees them 18.6% of the time and is hitting them for a .362 wOBA to go along with a .414 xwOBA. That's a strength that can get even better.
It's also important to note that his hard-hit rate on this pitch sits at 54.5%. With someone who doesn't hit the ball hard all that often, we can't overlook this. He clearly can benefit more from simply seeing sinkers more often since he's clearly been unlucky against them, even though it's a pitch he hits well.
One weakness he has that I don't expect to change anytime soon is his changeups. He's only hitting them for a .202 wOBA to go along with a .237 xwOBA. Both numbers are what pitchers love to see, and they need to focus on using offspeed more against Lopez. Granted, you still need the four-seamer to be effective in order to make the changeup more effective.
That can get pitchers in trouble against the 26-year-old, but it's something that they should focus more on. If they don't, then Lopez will start to rack up the hits a whole lot easier.
Verdict: Lopez is an interesting case in that the positive regression is so clearly present and waiting to happen, yet I don't believe the 54-point gap is accurate. We might see him finish a little closer to a .340 wOBA, which still would make him the second-most productive Marlin behind only Stowers. Fantasy managers should consider buying Lopez, as he will likely be a solid buy-low candidate.
But know that his production is much more likely to come through singles than it will be through extra-base hits. If he can find a way to hit the ball a bit harder and turn those singles into doubles, then we'll have a real threat at the plate on our roster.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/SS/OF, Boston Red Sox
2025 Stats: .763 OPS, 109 OPS+, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 50 R, 11 SB
Now onto our second Boston hitter of the article. Ceddanne Rafaela may often get overlooked in Boston's lineup, but he's been an important piece to their success this year. With a 109 OPS+ and a 3.3 bWAR, Boston's not in a position to compete without him in the lineup. Similar to Story, he's started slow, but he's been money since June.
So, how's he getting there? Let's find out.
The Boston bats are on fire 🔥
Ceddanne Rafaela's 2-run shot makes it 8-0! pic.twitter.com/KpP8o1PIW5
— MLB (@MLB) July 5, 2025
First, we've seen a significant improvement in his plate approach. That would be the decrease in strikeouts he's made. In 2023, he struck out at a 31.5% rate, and in 2024, that dropped to 26.4%. This season, he's dropped it all the way to 19.4%. With a hard-hit rate that ranks in the 72nd percentile, more balls in play are likely to be a good thing for Rafaela.
We've also seen his walk rate increase from 2.6% to 4.7%. Both of those numbers are too low for our liking, and we'd like to see them increased.
Both his strikeout rate and his walk rate point towards a high swing rate. Rafaela swings at 60.2% of pitches, the second most among qualified hitters behind only Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs. You can succeed with a high swing rate, as both Rafaela and PCA have shown, but a little more selectiveness wouldn't hurt for Rafaela's sake.
From a batted ball perspective, we see a slight increase in his ground-ball rate from 42.0% last season to 43.8% this season. We're also seeing an increase in his fly-ball rate, jumping from 36.9% to 40.4%. Both of those increases are taking away from line drives, though, as those are dropping from a 21.1% rate in 2024 to 15.7% in 2025.
It's not the worst thing to have line drives drop, since Rafaela's still hitting the ball hard, but a decrease in grounders that creates an increase in line drives would be lovely to see for the 24-year-old.
As for his HR/FB rate, that's sitting pretty constant with his normal numbers. His 11.6% rate is higher than last year's 10.3% rate, but the difference is not dramatic. He's hit 11 HRs on the season and should easily pass the 15 HR mark he set last year. Expect him to finish with about 20 HRs.
As we move on to the expected statistics, we can see that Rafaela is expecting some slight positive regression. His .330 wOBA is paired with a .341 xwOBA that ranks in the 59th percentile. With so many balls in play, it's definitely a benefit for Rafaela to have a barrel rate in the 80th percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 72nd percentile.
Rafaela's BABIP sits right at .299 this season. In 2024, that number stood at .312, indicating there may be some wiggle room to surpass his current level. However, since it's essentially the league-average of .300, I wouldn't expect it to deviate much further from its current position.
Ceddane Rafaela goes yard to put the Sox in front! pic.twitter.com/6uN92ZigKv
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 21, 2025
As we examine how pitchers attack Rafaela, we see a similar pattern to the one observed with Adell against four-seamers. The 24-year-old has improved greatly against them. Last season, he hit them for a .303 wOBA to go along with a .275 xwOBA. This season, he's hitting them for a .391 wOBA to go along with a .392 xwOBA.
Given that he sees them 29.1% of the time, that's a significant increase in the production he's providing.
Each of the next three pitches he sees also shows many positives. Sliders (.346 wOBA, .361 xwOBA), sinkers (.281 wOBA, .328 xwOBA), and changeups (.345 wOBA, .347 xwOBA) are all relatively accurate numbers, with the exception of sinkers, where we can expect positive regression.
Between these three pitches and four-seamers, that makes up just about 75% of the pitches that Rafaela sees. With all of them expecting either positive regression or being relatively true to each other, it helps validate the slight positive regression that the advanced stats are predicting.
One pitch he's been getting very lucky on is curveballs. He's hit them so far for a strong .410 wOBA. However, that's paired with a .273 xwOBA. With him seeing the pitch 8.7% of the time, it's not likely that it's going to make a huge difference in his production when the negative regression hits, but pitchers who throw curves shouldn't be afraid to use it because of what's already happened.
This is a weak point for Rafaela that will soon become apparent.
Verdict: Rafaela has been an important piece to the Red Sox lineup and will continue to be one. He's not going to overwhelm you with power, but what he's done this season has been relatively true. If he's not driving fantasy value through extra-base hits, then he'll still do so by scoring often, as no one on the Red Sox has scored more runs than he has.
Hold onto him on your roster as he'll be a productive piece going forward. He should be a very consistent piece to your roster, just not a major difference maker that can swing matchups.
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