Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results - Part 10

Kevin analyzes three hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 17. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

As we move on to our 10th edition of Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs, we are going to do something we haven't done yet, and I think it's going to excite the people. They've been clamoring for us to talk about this guy, and so I can only do one thing: Give the people what they want. Who is it that's getting an encore? You'll find out shortly.

Heading into Week 17, there's a bit of digging we need to do to help you find those diamonds in the rough that can help you win your fantasy championship. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.

We'll break down three hitters for you this week. With the second half of the season kicking off this weekend, we're aiming towards the home stretch. It's a make-or-break time not just for teams vying for playoff spots but also fantasy managers aiming for precious playoff spots as well. We'll break down Jackson Holliday, Luis Robert Jr., and Kyle Stowers. Now, let's get into it.

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All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, July 20.

Jackson Holliday, 2B, Baltimore Orioles

2025 Stats: .723 OPS, 103 OPS+, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 42 R, 9 SB

Last season was a bit of a "Welcome to the big leagues!" type of season for the Orioles' former No. 1 overall pick. The hype didn't quite transfer over, but there were flashes of who he could be. In 2025, he's starting to come into form a bit more, hitting just a bit above league average with quite a bit of improvement to most aspects of his game.

He started decently and got hot in May, posting an .819 OPS that month. June was a bit of a slow month for the 21-year-old, but he's back to being a league-average hitter in July. So what does Holliday have in store for the second half? Is a bigger breakout coming? Or will he revert to his 2024 form? Let's dive in and see what we can find out.

A leadoff laser for Jackson Holliday 🚀 pic.twitter.com/c9X0w6ow3j

— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2025

The first thing to evaluate is Holliday's plate appearance. We're seeing a massive improvement in his strikeout rate. Last year he struck out at a 33.2% clip. This year it's down to 24.3%. Still a number we'd probably like to see lower, but massively improved. His walk rate is down from 7.2% to 5.4%. Both are low numbers, but the drop here is less concerning thanks to the improvement of his strikeout rate.

His batted ball profile also shows significant improvement. We're seeing his ground-ball rate drop from 54.9% to 47.7%. That's higher than we want it to be. However, it has improved from last season. And it matters more where that decrease is going, which we'll get to. We're also seeing a decrease in fly-ball percentage, dropping from 35.2% to 32.7%.

We don't necessarily want to see that, but it's not all bad.

That's because Holliday's line drive rate has significantly increased from 9.8% last season to 19.5% this season. It points to the fact that he's seeing the ball much better this year and the contact he's making is much better as a result of that. It has also helped increase his HR/FB rate from 11.6% to 14.9%. Even in the minors, his HR/FB rate was never significantly high, but this is much closer to his norms.

As we talk about how much better Holliday is seeing the ball, it's worth it to see some of the changes he's making with his plate discipline. It's actually a bit the opposite of who he's been as a player throughout the minors, as he's swinging more this season. He's swinging at 50.6% of pitches this year. His prior high mark was at 46.8% in Double-A in 2023.

Last season in the majors, he swung at 45.8% of pitches. He's simply less hesitant.

For now, it's working well. He's making a lot more contact on pitches outside the zone when he chases, jumping from 41.2% last year to 52.6% this year. His overall contact percentage is up from 70.1% last year to 75.6% this year. Perhaps the mentality of being a more free swinger is helping him build confidence compared to his generally patient approach at the plate that got him in trouble last year. For now, it's working.

As we move onto the expected stats, we can see that the lefty has some positive regression coming. His .316 wOBA is paired with a .334 xwOBA, a nice small bump that should hit in the second half. It's not overwhelmingly great, but a .334 xwOBA ranks in the 53rd percentile. If that bump got him to a .334 wOBA, it'd put him in a similar spot as teammate Jordan Westburg, who's hitting for a 120 OPS+.

Now, I don't believe Holliday's OPS+ would jump up nearly 20 points thanks to an 18-point increase in his wOBA, but I do think it's reasonable to see it reach somewhere close to 110 or higher. That's not a make-or-break type of number for your fantasy lineup, but it does help stabilize your weekly numbers and is one less spot you have to worry about.

Now let's move onto how pitchers attack him. He sees four-seamers the most and has improved numbers against them this year. He's hitting them for a .352 wOBA to go along with a .406 xwOBA. A large majority of the positive regression we're expecting will come from this pitch, as he sees it 31.8% of the time.

Jackson Holliday puts the @Orioles on top! pic.twitter.com/LMsF2poiFo

— MLB (@MLB) July 6, 2025

It's also important that he has positive regression there because the pitch he sees the second most often, sinkers, is one that typically expects negative regression. He sees them 14.3% of the time and is hitting them for a .396 wOBA to go along with a .330 xwOBA. You'll take that xwOBA all day for most pitches, especially because it's still higher than his season-long wOBA, but it's a rather steep drop that we need to consider.

He's unfortunately expecting negative regression against two other pitches he's done well against with sliders and curves. He hits sliders for a .356 wOBA to go along with a .335 xwOBA. He hits curves for a .358 wOBA to go along with a .346 xwOBA. Those drops aren't quite sharp, but we want to stave off negative regression wherever we can.

One pitch I expect pitchers to continue throwing to Holliday is changeups. He's currently hitting them for a .231 wOBA to go along with a .264 xwOBA. Though he's expecting positive regression there, you'll aim for that low of an xwOBA any day. Changeups play well off four-seamers, though, and since Holliday's expecting a big positive regression boost there, it could be a dangerous game for pitchers.

Perhaps they aim more at setting him up with changeups to catch him off-guard when that four-seamer does come in, who knows. Or maybe the focus is more on junk balls. However, it's a weakness of his that pitchers should focus on more.

Verdict: The former No. 1 overall pick is starting to turn things around this season and is showing a lot of positive signs. He's not going to give you overwhelmingly good production, even with positive regression coming, but it's going to be above league average. Being a nice complementary piece to a roster that you don't have to worry about always helps put a fantasy manager's mind at ease.

Buy into Holliday, but don't expect superstar production. That OPS+ should jump up to 110 here in the coming months. He'll be a great complementary piece, and if you can buy him at a low price, the payoff may be worth it in August and September.

Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox

2025 Stats: .631 OPS, 76 OPS+, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 35 R, 25 SB

It's been a very underwhelming year for one of Chicago's usually better players. Luis Robert Jr. has simply not been himself, hitting for a porous 76 OPS+ compared to the 130 OPS+ he posted in 2023. It's now his second straight year of subpar offensive production with the bat. White Sox fans have to be worried, especially given that he'd traditionally be a very hot commodity on the trade market.

But things might be turning around for him now. In July, he has posted a 1.027 OPS in nine games. Small sample size for sure, but it's much better than what he's provided Chicago so far this season. Is this a sign of things to come thanks to the two golden words of positive regression? Or is this a flash in the pan? Let's dive in.

Of course Luis Robert Jr. would homer after his incredible grab 🤯 https://t.co/ggJR1GAFS4 pic.twitter.com/GfIwOu6dBv

— MLB (@MLB) July 18, 2025

Let's start with his plate approach. We're actually seeing some good improvements from Robert here as it looks like he's being a lot more selective about pitches. His strikeout rate, while still very high, has dropped from 33.2% to 29.5%. His walk rate has increased from 6.6% to 10.7%. The strikeout percentage is a tick below his 2023 mark when he hit for a 130 OPS+, while the walk percentage is the highest it's ever been.

That's generally going to be a very good thing for Robert, especially since the strikeout rate is staying high. He likely won't return to the 20% range, as he was in 2021 and 2022; instead, being close to 30% is more indicative of who he is as a hitter right now. If he can keep it below 30% then he'll hopefully see more good things coming.

From a batted ball perspective, we really aren't seeing a ton of change from who he has been. His ground-ball rate of 38.7% mirrors who he was last season and is a tick above where he was in 2023. His fly-ball rate of 43.0% is higher than last season's 41.1% and a touch below 2023's marks. His line drive rate of 18.3% is close to his marks from the previous two seasons as well.

His HR/FB rate since is at 12.5%, just below last season's mark of 13.5%. Both numbers are well below the 23.0% of 2023, but are right in line with his 2022 mark when he hit for a 110 OPS+. Would that mark make him a great hitter? No, but it's a significant improvement over his current 76 OPS+. So maybe there's some bad luck at play.

One part that's not bad luck, but sticks out like a sore thumb on his batted ball profile, is his infield fly-ball rate. That is up to 16.3% from last year's 6.7% mark and 2023's 9.1% mark. If he's trying to crush the ball, then he's simply doing too much, leading him to get way under pitches. If he can straighten these out a little more, then that could be a sign of better things to come for the 27-year-old.

As we move on to the expected statistics, we can see that he has a positive regression coming. He's currently hitting for a real ugly .278 wOBA that's paired with a .320 xwOBA. That xwOBA doesn't scream elite by any means, as it ranks in just the 39th percentile, but the 42-point jump does scream positive regression. If that jump comes, it will feel like a lot more production than it seems.

Part of the positive regression is shown in BABIP. Robert's got a .261 BABIP on the season. Outside of his 2020 season, he has always had a BABIP of .310 or better. Now, I wouldn't expect him to reach above the .300 mark anytime soon, but he should see a jump that puts him in the .290 range by the end of the season.

Now for the pitch mix. The good news for Robert and his fantasy managers is that he's expecting positive regression on five of the top six pitches he faces, adding up to 67.9% of all pitches he faces. That's a great sign for him. The only pitch of those top six pitches he's not expecting positive regression on is four-seam fastballs. He's hitting those for a .330 wOBA to go with an xwOBA, so the results are true on that pitch.

Where he's going to see the most impactful positive regression is with sinkers and sliders. He hits sinkers for a .339 wOBA to go along with a .382 xwOBA. He hits sliders for a .223 wOBA to go along with a .297 xwOBA. With seeing sinkers at a 19.1% rate and sliders at a 17.5% rate, that's going to be a good chunk of positive regression. Pitchers are still likely to attack him with sliders, though, as that will remain a weak spot for Robert.

Luis Robert Jr. just sent this baseball to a different planet 😮 pic.twitter.com/wPzqpJRtEb

— MLB (@MLB) June 20, 2025

Changeups (.317 wOBA, .321 xwOBA), sweepers (.300 wOBA, .302 xwOBA), and cutters (.172 wOBA, .211 xwOBA) make up the next three pitches expecting positive regression, though not quite as impactful. Although cutters are expected to show positive regression, I would expect pitchers who throw cutters to use them more frequently, given how low a ceiling xwOBA predicts for that pitch.

Another factor we need to consider for Robert's fantasy value is his ability to steal bases. His 25 stolen bases rank seventh overall in the majors. Mind you he's had quite the struggles at the plate this season. As luck starts to turn around for him on the season, and he gets on more often, he's likely to accumulate more stolen bases as well. Not a bad added bonus!

Verdict: Robert's 1.027 OPS in July likely won't be a continuous trend, but he is certainly someone fantasy managers should buy into. When all is said and done, he should see his OPS+ creep close to 100. His bad season is looking to turn around, just not to the levels we've been used to in seasons past.

Another factor to consider is that he'll be a name floated at the trade deadline. If a competitor bites, then that obviously changes his scenery. There are worries, for sure, but a positive can come out of it by getting him into a place where competitive ball is being played. It's impossible to measure statistically, but that can often be a boon for players when it encourages them to lock in more frequently. See if you can buy low on Robert. You never know!

Kyle Stowers, OF, Miami Marlins

2025 Stats: .930 OPS, 154 OPS+, 21 HR, 59 RBI, 48 R, 4 SB

"It's the return of the...oh wait... no wait, you're kidding. He didn't just hit another long ball, did he?"

That's what Eminem must be saying about the Blond Bomber, AKA Kyle Stowers, AKA Stowers Power, AKA the guy you all keep asking us to break down. We actually provided a breakdown of Stowers earlier in the season, but why not do it again?

At that point, he was hitting for a 154 OPS+, and we told you that even though he was overachieving a little, he was hitting it hard enough that he was still a must-add to your roster.

And after a July that's seen him hit for a 1.328 OPS with eight homers, he's back up to a 154 OPS+. It appears that he continued doing what he was doing, just as we had said he would. But let's see if much else has changed since then and what the stats say now about whether he's expecting positive or negative regression.

KYLE STOWERS
WALK-OFF BLAST
ARE YOU KIDDING?! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/V9AF0js8a6

— MLB (@MLB) July 19, 2025

When we analyzed Stowers two months ago, he had a strikeout rate of 28.7% and a walk rate of 9.4%. He now has a strikeout rate of 27.9% and a walk rate of 10.0%. There's not much movement, but both are going in positive directions. Each is an improvement over his marks last season as well.

From a batted ball perspective, we credited much of his turnaround to a solid reduction in grounders. His ground-ball rate early in the season was 49.6%, and it dropped to 38% two months ago. Today, it stands at 39%, remaining almost unchanged. His fly-ball rate is about the same as well, going from 38% two months ago to 39% now.

His line-drive rate was at 24.1% and today it sits at 22.0%. Both are improvements over his mark last season of 17.6%. His HR/FB rate was at a very high 24.4% two months ago, and he's maintaining that rate today with a 24.7% mark. It's a significant improvement over his previous marks, which had a high of only 13.0% in 2022.

From a batted ball perspective and a plate approach perspective, he has improved from his marks last season and maintained similar levels over the past two months. Now onto the expected stats.

In late May, Stowers was posting a .405 wOBA with a .406 xwOBA. He's fallen a touch from those numbers, now posting a .395 wOBA to go with a .396 xwOBA. Both numbers are excellent (94th percentile for xwOBA) and suggest that the results he's getting are true.

One number that may be a bit concerning to look at right now is his BABIP. That's coming in at .365 right now, which is obviously a very high mark and points towards negative regression. Two months ago, he was posting a .398 BABIP. These numbers we're getting now are a bit more accurate, but a fall-off could still be on the way.

Some of that negative regression will be mitigated by how hard he hits the ball. His 53.0% hard-hit rate sits in the 93rd percentile. So we can expect that BABIP to stay above .300 or so. The only question is where it will settle when all is said and done.

Kyle Stowers this season:

.285/.358/.523
16 HR
.881 OPS
142 wRC+

The Marlins got themselves a GUY 💪pic.twitter.com/Uq6CTCTtqg

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 5, 2025

Now moving onto the pitch mix he faces. Currently, there are only two pitches he's hitting with a sub-400 wOBA. Those would be sliders (.301 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) and changeups (.326 wOBA, .344 xwOBA).

Changeups were a pitch we mentioned were due for negative regression two months ago as the gap between wOBA and xwOBA was large (.395 wOBA, .286 xwOBA). That negative regression has hit, but it's swung so far that now he's actually due for positive regression on the pitch.

Four-seam fastballs have continued to be a strength that shows positive regression. He's currently hitting them for a .405 wOBA to go with a .421 xwOBA. Pitchers are throwing it to him 37.5% of the time. That's less than the 42% mark from two months ago, indicating that pitchers are realizing Stowers crushes four-seamers.

On every other pitch Stowers faces, he's posting an xwOBA of .390 or better (outside of split-fingers, which he only sees 4.8% of the time). With that fact, there's not much negative regression being shown in the overall pitch mix.

One pitch he's likely to regress on is sinkers. He's hitting them for a .440 wOBA that's paired with a .390 xwOBA. But at the same time, you would sign up for a .390 xwOBA every single day without hesitation.

If pitchers want to get Stowers out, they need to focus on sliders and changeups. They're the only pitches that currently make the 27-year-old seem average. Everything else seems liable to get destroyed.

Verdict: It's Stowers' world and we're all just living in it. He was for real two months ago, and he's still for real today. Absolutely buy into the young outfielder as he's going to keep doing what he's been doing. Might there be a slight drop-off because of BABIP? Yes, that's a possibility. However, he will still hit the ball incredibly hard.

As long as he keeps hitting the ball hard, he will continue to find success. Whether against lefties (114 wRC+) or righties (167 wRC+), he's going to mash. He's currently on 75% of Yahoo! rosters, which raises the question of what exactly is going on in 25% of leagues because I don't get it. Snag him up immediately.

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