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You might be sick of the term "sleeper" since it lacks a clear definition for consideration. Everyone's different so let's get my definition out of the way first! Sleepers are not necessarily meant to be names that no one else has heard of because in 2024 that means you're plumbing ADP beyond pick 600. No, it means their value is presently being slept on. Therefore, you will see a few veterans here mixed in with youngsters who aren't being properly gauged.
This piece originally ran with early NFBC data but now it utilizes consensus ADP from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, and NFBC. We're hunting profits here, but these guys deserve to be talked about much more heading into 2024. Let's sleepwalk into some championships here.
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Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers - Hitters
Catchers: Bo Naylor (ADP: 239, C16)
First of all, I'll point out that his NFBC ADP (where two-catcher formats are popular) is still outside of the top-12 C's and that's my line for intrigue. As the No. 16 catcher off of the board, he is largely undrafted in most single-catcher, 12-team formats.
Naylor boasts above-average power and sports quietly effective wheels, with stellar plate discipline to balance out a batting average that won’t win any awards. He’s popped 28 home runs in just 560 Triple-A plate appearances (126 games), with 11 steals and a .255 average on top of that. But it took him a while to get going in the majors.
The 22-year-old hit .179 with a 66 wRC+, four home runs, and one steal over his first 131 PAs (through August 18). He had a K/BB of nearly three. But it’s an early, small sample for a touted prospect, so patience was exercised (luckily).
Naylor’s final 99 PAs of the season would yield a .321/.434/.679 triple slash with eight doubles, seven HRs, four steals (on four attempts), and 17 walks to 16 strikeouts. It’s beautiful. If some of those gains track and we’re beyond some of the learning curve then we’ve got a late C capable of 20 HRs, 10 SBs, and an average of around .250. Sign me up!
Others I Like: Luis Campusano (287), Austin Wells (307), Ryan Jeffers (317)
First Base: Ryan Mountcastle (ADP: 254)
Most of you would say Mountcastle had a disappointing 2023 campaign, right? He only played in 115 games and while he improved on his worse ‘22 numbers, he still only produced a .779 OPS with an ISO 50 points lower than the .232 seen in 2021.
Some may happily settle on thinking this is roughly who Mountcastle is, especially after Camden’s walls were altered. While that may hold partial truth, we can’t forget how Mountcastle crushed throughout spring training and slugged six home runs with a .972 OPS in Baltimore’s first 13 games. Four of those round-trippers came at home, so don’t give me that.
Mountcastle would slump over the next eight weeks, supplying a .605 OPS with 47 strikeouts to just nine walks. He hit fewer HRs (five) in that 47-game span than in those first 13 contests. But then we learned he suffered from vertigo and had been struggling to see the ball for quite some time.
His first 45 games off of the injured list saw him hit .359 (.978 OPS) with seven HRs and eight doubles. He had a far more reasonable 37:19 K:BB. Some of this was the result of platooning with Ryan O’Hearn, with Mountcastle primarily facing southpaws. But then a September shoulder injury cropped up, which effectively wrapped up his ‘23. At this price point, I’m comfortable leaning on Mountcastle and expecting more consistency from his bat.
Others I Like: Anthony Rizzo (262), Joey Meneses (339), Nolan Schanuel (369)
Second Base: Edouard Julien (ADP: 236)
Julien’s prospects got a boost with Jorge Polanco’s trade, which gives the 24-year-old a steadier job to let his elite eye blossom. Minnesota largely kept him away from southpaws as a rookie, but perhaps this signals a willingness to give him more full-time run.
Even if it doesn’t, he showed enough promise at the dish as a leadoff man against right-handed pitching to be worth a pick in the 200s. The 24-year-old didn’t pop with elite exit velocities or speed but had a 100th-percentile chase rate (14.3%), 98th-percentile walk rate (15.7%), and 91st-percentile Sweet-Spot rate (38.8%). The latter meant that it was good wood when he did choose to swing. This is reflected well by Thomas Nestico’s chart:
I did some more digging into Edouard Julien's decision value throughout the season, and his improvements from making good swing decisions to elite swing decisions in his rookie season is fascinating.
In the final 3rd of the season, his swing decision-making was Juan Soto-esque https://t.co/9N04ySXQEq pic.twitter.com/37ULvBarxC
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) January 28, 2024
Ideally, Julien can trim the ~30% strikeout rate and channel more of his stellar decision-making into big swings. It may be that his average never pops but he still posts on-base percentages that sniff .400 due to his patience and pitch recognition. The modest ADP gives us a chance to gamble on the first outcome occurring.
Others I Like: Jorge Polanco (263), Colt Keith (284), Brandon Lowe (311)
Third Base: Ke'Bryan Hayes (184)
Maikel Garcia is nice for the speed-needy while Luis Rengifo is an intriguing Swiss Army knife, but Hayes should have a chance at outperforming the five names ahead of him (Max Muncy, Noelvi Marte, Alec Bohm, Jake Burger, Christian Encarnacion-Strand). We’ve yet to see a full season (150-plus games) out of Hayes but breakout signs are emerging.
The 27-year-old brought his strikeout rate down for a second straight year while bumping his ISO to .182 from .101 in ‘22. His average exit velocity gained another tick and his fly-ball rate jumped by more than 10 percentage points. He particularly loved facing southpaws (.847 OPS, .238 ISO, 120 wRC+) but held his own against right-handers (.721, .156, 92). The overall point is that his bat is still climbing.
And why shouldn’t it be? A wrist injury plagued his 2021 season and then he played through a back injury for much of 2022. Pittsburgh played it safe with two IL stints in ‘23 due to lower back inflammation. But his healthy stretch run in August/September saw him hit .299 with 10 HRs.
There is a 20-25 HR bat in here. I will note he only attempted two swipes after the IL visits after going 9-for-14 in the first half. A healthy Hayes could punch the ball and feel comfortable running en route to a 20/15/.275 campaign near pick 200. Such a finish would yield roughly 4-5 rounds of profit.
Others I Like: Jeimer Candelario (223), Junior Caminero (224), Maikel Garcia (259), Michael Busch (379)
Shortstop: Luis Rengifo (ADP: 280)
Another slow starter who picked it up later, Rengifo’s versatility helped keep him in the lineup through early problems until he went ballistic following the All-Star break. The 26-year-old was hitting an empty .219 with a poor .255 BABIP and a middling 33% fly-ball rate.
But then lightning struck (aka LAA hitting coaches helped him out) and Rengifo hit .318 with a .960 OPS and 40% fly-ball rate in the second half. He cracked 11 HRs in those 49 games as a waiver-wire hero before a torn bicep tendon prematurely ended the party in early September.
He’s said to be ready for 2024 and qualifies at multiple positions no matter what platform you like. Don’t overlook him based on deceiving seasonal stats and his being a late bloomer. If he winds up losing PT due to the Aaron Hicks signing then so be it. (I'm not concerned about his early health.)
Others I Like: Ezequiel Tovar (213), Zach Neto (338), Jackson Merrill (406)
Outfield: Parker Meadows (ADP: 318)
Meadows performed well enough during his month-plus of major-league action to earn leadoff duties in the final week of the 2023 season. In 37 games (145 PAs), Meadows only hit .232 but posted a .331 on-base percentage alongside three HRs (nine total extra-base hits).
Okay, so a ~12-15 HR pace isn’t exciting and many of you aren’t directly helped by OBP. But you still recognize getting on base is a good thing, especially in today’s steal-happy era. The rookie did his part there, successfully swiping a bag on 8-of-9 attempts.
He was 19-for-21 on steal attempts over 113 Triple-A games prior to his promotion and went 17-for-19 in ‘22. The man has a nose for opportunity and closes the deal. We have a potential path to 12-15 HRs, 20 or more steals, and an avenue to 100 runs if he holds down the leadoff role. Our own Eric Cross is even more bullish on the power translating:
Parker Meadows could be a MAJOR draft value this year at his current 284 ADP.
- 15+/15+ upside right away
- Should lead off and start regularly in front of Greene, Tork, and Carpenter.My 2024 Projection: 625 PA, .255/84/18/63/22#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/X9e01vjqeL
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) January 26, 2024
Outfield: Matt Wallner (ADP: 347)
Wallner constantly tattooed the ball in 2023, posting the eighth-best xISO (.285) out of 362 batters with at least 200 PAs. His .374 xwOBA was a top-20 mark out of the same pool, with the bulk of names surrounding him coming off of our draft boards in the early rounds.
Of course, there are good reasons to differentiate him from that group. Wallner’s first full MLB season will come at 26 and he’s likely to be platooned, though at least he’ll face righties.
And while most prospect articles weren’t highlighting the man, he did slash .299/.436/.597 with 21 HRs and eight steals in just 78 Double-A games back in ‘22. He was 24 at Double-A, but I’m more flexible with the prospects who had their development stunted by the lost 2020 season.
Others I Like: Ceddanne Rafaela (337), Jose Siri (353), Johan Rojas (379), Sean Bouchard (474)
Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers - Pitchers
Last year’s slots went to Hunter Brown and Justin Steele when they were in the 250-300 ADP range, so what’s next on the grill?
Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez (ADP: 268)
If I handed you a SIERA or xFIP leaderboard for the starting pitchers of 2023 and said, “Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow, Logan Webb, and Zach Eflin comprise four of the names. Who is the fifth?” What would you guess? Gerrit Cole? Zack Wheeler? Pablo Lopez? Nope, it’s Sanchez. Sure, you have to bring the qualification bar down to >90 IP, but you get the drift.
Sanchez had failed to make an impression in previous cups of coffee and even sported an iffy 4.35 ERA/1.45 WHIP in 50 Triple-A innings last year. But he came up to the majors with a plan of attack. He pounded away with his sinker-changeup-slider combo that nibbled the zone well enough that he induced a 57% ground-ball rate while maintaining a 4% walk rate. No wonder the metrics loved him.
Then his changeup usage started to rise, and the strikeouts rose with it. Statcast had him throwing it 25% of the time in June, then around 32-33% in July-August, and up to 40% in September. You may remember his September housing a pair of 10-K performances.
Said K% rose from about 22% in July-August to 28%, all while supplying the same low walk rate and exceptional ground-ball rate. Will we get another top-five year on the charts? Probably not. If he can hold some of these gains then he’s a great pick with a strong ‘pen behind him.
Starting Pitcher: Chase Silseth (ADP: 383)
Silseth’s role bounced around as the Halos tried to find a spark before ultimately letting the 23-year-old operate as a (somewhat) consistent starter following the All-Star break. His first start of the second half came on July 19 as he struck out 10 Yankees. Two starts later he would ring up 12 Mariners. The 41:13 K:BB in 33 ⅔ IP was zesty, though he did surrender six homers (1.6 HR/9) in that span.
Still, he was primarily a groundball arm (42% in that window, 49% on the year) with strikeout stuff. I love that combo. His 3.65 SIERA ranked 24th among 221 starters (min. 30 IP) while his 3.36 xFIP ranked 15th.
Unfortunately, HRs may remain a problem, but I must point out he faced teams like Atlanta, Houston, and Tampa Bay in this small sample. His run was cut short by a freak concussion suffered on a throw across the diamond, but he threw about 100 frames in ‘23 and should give us ~150 solid ones in ‘24.
Starting Pitcher: Joe Boyle (ADP: 412)
On the surface, Boyle’s trio of major-league starts in 2023 were laudable and offer plenty of hope moving forward. The 1.69 ERA/0.81 WHIP and 15:5 K:BB in 16 frames is crisp. And he had a 2.25 ERA/1.19 WHIP in three Triple-A starts for Oakland following a trade from Cincinnati, so what’s the catch?
Well, aside from rarely going all-in on small samples, Boyle’s minor-league track record suggests a massive walk problem. He offered plenty of strikeouts, but his overall 168:93 K:BB from the minors last year illustrates the exceptional double-edged sword that Boyle wields. His overall figure from the minors is 362:191 in 237 IP.
Jeff Zimmerman highlighted a quote from Boyle after his second MLB start where he cited more reps, trusting his coaching/the process, and hitting the zone more consistently. Fair enough, and it could explain how both his Ks and BBs dipped.
Let’s see how he’s attacking hitters in the spring and early April, but if he either resembles the arm from those final three starts of ‘23 or the high-K arm with some command improvements then he’s a lovely buy in ‘24.
Others I Like: Kyle Harrison (242), Kutter Crawford (269), Louie Varland (331), Erick Fedde (352), Gavin Stone (430)
Relief Pitcher: Hunter Harvey - (ADP: 305)
I doubt many would posit that Harvey is anything but Washington’s best relief pitcher. But most have resigned themselves to the reality that Kyle Finnegan is the closer and Harvey is simply a handcuff. Do not forget that both were healthy last May/June when the Nats tagged Harvey into the role over Finnegan.
Finnegan finished May with two runs allowed to the Dodgers to inflate his ERA to 4.91 (5.57 FIP) with a 2.05 HR/9, while Harvey cleaned up that game’s mess with a strong two-inning save. That gave him a 3.42 ERA (3.22 FIP, 1.03 HR/9) at the time. Finnegan recorded zero saves from then on until Harvey hit the IL.
Harvey posted a clean save against the Cardinals on July 14 but then had both forearm and triceps soreness, which led to his missing a month and opening the door for Finnegan to finish 2023 as the stopper. Harvey has always had the edge in ratios, strikeouts, walks, homers allowed…pretty much everything. If the Nats do open ‘24 with Finnegan as the closer then it’s only a matter of time, again.
Relief Pitcher: Chad Green – (ADP: Very Low)
Green isn’t likely to scoop up significant saves in 2024, as Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson should be the one-two punch in the late frames, but Green offers plenty more. He missed most of 2022 and ‘23 due to Tommy John surgery and at 32 years old, it wasn’t a given his form would return.
Well, he looked fine to me! We only saw 12 big-league innings here, but out of 458 relievers (min. 10 IP), his 19.5% swinging-strike rate ranked fourth. Some of that came from relentlessly getting ahead in the count with a 75% first-strike rate, which was sixth in that same RP pool. He also had a 15:1 K:BB in 12 ⅓ IP during his rehab assignment, for the record.
I don’t think we get 2021 Chad Green, who delivered 83 ⅔ IP with 10 wins, six saves, 99 Ks, and a 3.12 ERA/0.88 WHIP. He only threw about 25 innings in ‘23 and Toronto has him signed through 2025, but his versatility should lead to high-leverage spots that supply wins, Ks, and good ratios that make him elite FrankenAce material.
Others I Like: James McArthur (336), Orion Kerkering (340), Shelby Miller (408)
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