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Miami Dolphins running back Matt Breida is a fantasy football sleeper and draft target in 2020. Kipp Heisterman evaluates Breida as an undervalued RB based on ADP, especially in PPR leagues.
The Miami Dolphins finished 2019 in last place in the AFC East, but their 5-11 record was better than many pundits predicted. The rebuild started in 2019 with the hiring of Head Coach Brian Flores and the movement of stars like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Laremy Tunsil for draft picks. The rebuild continues in 2020 with the drafting of Tua Tagovailoa and Austin Jackson as well as the additions of Ereck Flowers at left guard and Jordan Howard at running back.
With all of these additions, there is one player that still is not receiving enough attention and has the possibility of being a solid sleeper in 2020. That individual is running back, Matt Breida. Breida was acquired from the 49ers for a fifth-round pick in this year's draft and is currently on a one year deal, which should keep him motivated to either earn an extension with the Dolphins or a new deal with another organization.
While Breida has not been the picture of health over his short three-year career, he has been a solid producer when on the field. A deeper look into his advanced metrics will shed some light on why he could be a potential sleeper for 2020.
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A Home Run Threat in Miami?
It is important to begin by stating that Breida does have some injury history. Over the course of three seasons with the 49ers, he has missed a total of five games but has also left a number of games early due to injury. That being said, he does provide plenty of upside, especially in PPR leagues. One area where Breida shined in 2019 was his catch rate. He managed to rank inside the top 11% of the league with an 86.4% catch rate. This helped him haul in 19 of his 22 targets for 122 yards.
While this does not seem like much production, it is important to keep in mind that he is going from a run-heavy team that did not utilize running backs as much in the passing game to a team that targeted backs over 100 times in the Miami Dolphins. Breida's main competition in Miami will be Jordan Howard, who has garnered a total of 41 targets in his previous two seasons and a meager 14 targets in 2019 with the Eagles. Simply put: Howard should not be a threat to Breida in the Dolphins' passing game.
In 2019, Breida also ran the ball effectively as he carried the ball 123 times for 623 yards and a score, which was good for over five yards per carry. While the Dolphins O-line was one of the worst in the league in 2019, they have drastically worked to improve it with the additions mentioned above. Breida is also somewhat of a home run threat when he gets his hands on the ball.
In his previous three seasons, he has a total of 16 carries for 20-plus yards as well as seven receptions for over 20 yards. Breida has also proven to be reliable when carrying the ball as he has only accounted for four total fumbles (two lost) in nearly 400 total attempts. Therefore, it is unlikely he will find himself in coach Flores' dog house in 2020.
Reasonable Cost
Aside from these positives, Breida also has a friendly ADP, coming in at around pick 100. This currently makes him an early-to-mid eighth-round pick in most 12-team leagues.
He finds himself being drafted after guys like Tevin Coleman and Phillip Lindsay, both of whom have formidable backfield competition in the likes of Raheem Mostert (assuming he is not traded from San Francisco) and Melvin Gordon III, respectively. Drafting Breida in this range or slightly higher could return significant value as he enters what looks certain to be a contract year at age 25.
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