X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Draft Strategy for Dynasty & Keeper Leagues: Fantasy Baseball

Today, I'll be tackling the most difficult decision a fantasy owner will have to make in the preseason: whom to keep in a competitive keeper league. Having a sound keeper strategy is just as important to contending in your league as a first-round pick will ever be, and making a mistake at this part of the game can set your team back more than one season. Just to keep things simple, I'll be assuming a standard 10-team league for this discussion, in which the cost of a keeper is forfeiting your pick in the round he was originally selected (for example, keeping Miguel Cabrera would cost a fantasy owner his first-round pick in the upcoming draft). The principles I discuss, though, are applicable to any keeper format, not just the type discussed in this article.

 

Draft Strategy for Dynasty & Keeper Leagues

rotoballer-fantasy-baseball-advice-mike-trout

The biggest mistake a fantasy owner will often make when selecting his or her keepers is to go for a name-brand player just because the name recognition comes with a sense of safety. Don't get me wrong-- a guy like Mike Trout who is definitely a name brand should without question be kept in every league where keeping him is an option. You always keep top-first-round talents, guys who if you chose to throw them back would probably end up on a different team next year (or who would cost you that same first-round pick to reacquire). Those are the guys you build a team around, and keeping them is virtual no-brainer.

For everyone else, fantasy owners would do well to add an extra stat in along with their projections on the player's batting average, RBI, ERA, WHIP and so on. That stat is the 'value' of the keeper. Look at the round in which you originally drafted the player (or for auction leagues, the sum you originally spent on the player), and then look at what it will cost you to hold the player, and calculate the difference. The difference between that number and the expected cost of redrafting the player if you were to throw him back is the value of your keeper. Maximizing this number allows you to effectively maximize the total talent on your team and in doing so maximize your chances of winning your league.

For example, if you had to ask me which player would have a better 2014 for fantasy purposes between Dustin Pedroia and Matt Carpenter, I'd answer Pedroia with little hesitation. He has a far more proven skill-set, better projections and the kind of track record on which you can depend. Carpenter has all the ceiling in the world, but the list of players who've come out of nowhere to have amazing fantasy seasons only to slip back into mediocrity the following year is mile long, which should put into perspective the risk that goes along with owning him next year. That said, there's no chance I would ever consider keeping Pedroia over Carpenter. The reason comes down to the relative value of the two players. Pedroia was drafted at the end of the third round in 2013, and he will go at the end of the third round this year. Carpenter, on the other hand, went largely undrafted last year (if he was drafted, he almost certainly went in the last few rounds). That means that Carpenter will cost you roughly a 25th-round pick, which is a tremendous value considering that he's likely to go around the seventh-round this year. Had you picked Pedroia, you would arguably have the better 2B, but you would have also lost the rights to your third-round pick. The player who selects Carpenter maintains that third-round pick, allowing him or her to select additional top-tier talent to pair with Matt Carpenter. Is there anyone out there who wouldn't take a pairing of Matt Carpenter and Jose Bautista over Dustin Pedroia and Corey Hart? That's what I thought.

This same principle applies to players who play different positions, or even between pitchers and position players. In every decision, it's not a matter of necessarily picking the best player, but of picking the best player after you account for the additional value that player brings to your team as a keeper. Said another way, opportunity cost is the key for selecting keepers. The cost of keeping Dustin Pedroia isn't just the third-round pick you're giving up to keep him. It includes the player whom you might have otherwise acquired in the third round had you not tossed Pedroia back into the player pool. A draft is all about maximizing your team's talent, and making sure you pick the highest valued keepers is key to this, because it lets you use those early-round picks on something else. Sometimes, it's that 'something else' that helps win you your league.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Clayton Kershaw19 mins ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler23 mins ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager30 mins ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz37 mins ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Alex Caruso39 mins ago

Ayo Dosunmu Probable Friday
Darius Garland51 mins ago

Probable Against 76ers
Donovan Mitchell60 mins ago

Upgraded To Questionable
Duncan Robinson2 hours ago

Heat Rule Out Duncan Robinson Friday
Bryan Reynolds3 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jimmy Butler3 hours ago

Probable Against Portland
Onyeka Okongwu3 hours ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray3 hours ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano4 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole4 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz4 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon5 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco5 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad5 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov5 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto5 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin6 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard6 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins6 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist6 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear6 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop6 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels6 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball6 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado7 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer7 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman7 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent7 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Jrue Holiday8 hours ago

NBA DFS: Top Daily Fantasy Expert Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel (3/28/24)
NBA9 hours ago

One X Factor for Each Remaining Team - NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
Alabama Crimson Tide10 hours ago

CBB DFS: NCAA Tournament DraftKings Daily Fantasy College Basketball Picks - Today's Top Lineups (3/28/24)
Brady Skjei10 hours ago

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks (3/28/24): Today's Top NHL DFS Lineups
Adama Sanogo12 hours ago

NCAA Second Chance Tournament Challenge - 2024 March Madness Brackets
Al Horford18 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
TJ Friedl19 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Juuse Saros19 hours ago

Premium: NHL DFS Picks, Stacks, Goalies Analysis for March 28, 2024 (Premium Content)
Jackson Chourio19 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Hayden Buckley20 hours ago

RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The Texas Children's Houston Open
NHL20 hours ago

NHL DFS Picks and Heat Map (Premium Content) - March 28, 2024
Jordan Spieth20 hours ago

Spencer Aguiar's Top One And Done Picks To Consider - The Texas Children's Houston Open (Premium Content)
Eduardo Rodriguez21 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Garrett Mitchell21 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green21 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson21 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Rafael Campos21 hours ago

DraftKings PGA DFS Value Plays - 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open (Premium Content)
Kevin Gausman21 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Joel Dahmen22 hours ago

DraftKings Core Four: PGA DFS - 2024 Houston Open (Premium Content)
Gleyber Torres23 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard23 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson23 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer23 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia23 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen23 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers23 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Billy Horschel24 hours ago

Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open
Malik Nabers24 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar1 day ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
Joseph Bramlett1 day ago

Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

PGA Stat Buffet - Betting, DFS Picks - Golf Bets Research - 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open (Premium)
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB1 day ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Joseph Bramlett1 day ago

PGA Expert DFS Roundtable - 2024 Houston Open (Premium Content)
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

TeeOffSports' PGA DFS Rankings Wizard In-Tournament Model (Wednesday Update) - The Texas Children's Houston Open (Premium Content)
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF