Finding Over/Undervalued First Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Nick Mariano uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, which analyzes data from the last five MLB seasons, to identify overvalued and undervalued first basemen (1B) for fantasy baseball drafts in 2021.

Welcome to the FSWA-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We'll start at first base and make our way around the diamond to begin the 2021 exercise.

Today, we'll look at three first basemen and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning February into March, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.

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How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League

It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at five power bats that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC Online ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.

Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2021 drafts.

Jose Abreu (1B, CWS)

NFBC DC ADP: 42
Expected Return for a Power+Average Hitter Drafted 42nd: .299 BA, 27 HR, 89 runs, 97 RBI, 5 SB
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .293-35-102-115-1

Analysis: Abreu made the most of 2020’s 60-game season, earning the AL MVP award with a career-best .987 OPS and a 162-game pace of 51 homers, 115 runs scored, and 162 RBI. One can’t get carried away acting like that’s the norm, but it isn’t as though Abreu’s MVP campaign came out of nowhere. He’d topped 30 homers in four of his six previous seasons and has been a bastion of durability to boot. He blows away the expected return for power and is roughly on par with the average, what’s not to like?

Part of what you're buying into here is the tighter band of projections, with less volatility for someone with consistent pop and the xStats to back it up. He hasn't posted an xBA below .280 on Savant since his rookie season! His sweet-spot and hard-hit rates have steadily climbed in recent seasons while maintaining an all-fields approach. His entire MLB career has seen a spray chart hover around 35-40-25 pull-center-oppo, which helps him keep defenses honest and holes open for those scorching liners.

Don’t forget that Abreu had a useful 208 R+RBI in 2019 as the next generation started to assemble around him, but now the South Siders are an offensive juggernaut. Abreu’s absurd R+RBI tallies from last season are more fire than smoke as Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Nick Madrigal, and more ascend to their peaks. It's not just me, as ATC projects him as one of three batters to notch 110 or more RBI in 2021. And Abreu gets to just consistently rake from the cleanup slot through it all. Be there when he does.

Verdict: Target, Abreu is quite undervalued at his current draft slot

Eric Hosmer (1B, SD)

NFBC DC ADP: 138
Expected Return for a Power+Average Hitter Drafted 138th: .299-23-69-72-4
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .270-20-73-79-4

Analysis: Technically, Hosmer’s projection doesn’t qualify for any EDV cohort. This portends the sad news that he’s going too early. Even if I jack up Hosmer’s projection to the .284 average cutoff for the HR+AVG cohort, he’s still 15 points shy of the EDV bar while also sitting a few homers short. The modest R+RBI improvements can’t make up for that, and you’ll recall he’s actually about 30 BA points behind per our projections. ATC has him at .262 while THE BAT X is as low as .257! But Hosmer hit .287 last year and Slam Diego is a great story.

There's value in his hitting cleanup when penciled in, but we're starting to see some playing-time worries arise. Lost in the shuffle was how poorly Hosmer performed against southpaws, going 10-for-49 (.204) after a lousy 36-for-156 (.231) showing in 2019. The Padres boast insane depth and can spell Hosmer against lefties in 2021, which leads to my relatively higher BA projection but leaves fantasy teams in the cold.

As it stands with no NL DH, we should see Jake Cronenworth and Wil Myers step into some 1B time (mostly Cronenworth, who will also experiment in the outfield). While Jake does bat lefty as well, his platoon splits may surprise you if you simply checked out 2020.

If you're worried about Jake Cronenworth's "splits" after 61 MLB PA's vs LHP, look at his MiLB career to see if it's an issue carried over

Yearly OPS (RHP/LHP)

2019: .889/1.010
2018: .663/.673
2017: .767/.586
2016: .765/.804
2015: .826/.724

seems neutral if anything

— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) March 4, 2021

This comes as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar stretch their wings for the Padres all over the diamond. Even a slight PT threat sets off alarm bells for a compiler such as Hosmer. I appreciate the slightly better average versus other mid-round CIs, but I'd rather go for C.J. Cron, Jared Walsh, or this next fellow since this safe option may not be all that safe.

Verdict: Pass, Hosmer is overvalued at his current draft slot

Ryan Mountcastle (1B, BAL)

NFBC DC ADP: 167
Expected Return for a Power+Average Hitter Drafted 167th:.300-23-68-71-3
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .286-30-74-86-2

Analysis: Mountcastle is cheating a bit thanks to eligibility here but I need to work him in. The frontrunner for 2021 AL Rookie of the Year may be a poor fielder but a full season at Camden Yards should yield profits. The 2020 small sample brought us a .333/.386/.492 slash with five homers over 140 PAs, but much of that was mirrored in his 2019 Triple-A with 25 homers and a .312/.344/.527 slash across a more robust 553 PAs.

Mountcastle is another bat who can utilize the whole field, as he sported a 30-40-30 pull-straight-oppo profile on 98 batted balls in 2020.

Do note he still trends towards a typical 40% pull rate with his minor-league data, but I was impressed to see him go all over in the small-sample 2020. Rookies always present a wider range of outcomes but the median projection supports this mid-round pick.

He’s capable of hitting .300, clearly, and has 60-grade raw power behind that for neutral 25-30 homer potential. Mix in Camden being a top-five park for the longball per EVAnalytics and baby, you’ve got a stew going. Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park and Dunedin offer above-average venues to boot, so let’s have fun.

Verdict: Target, Mountcastle is undervalued at his current draft slot

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