12 Overseeded, Underseeded March Madness Teams: College Basketball NCAA Tournament

March 19, 2026

Which 12 teams were wrongly seeded in the 2026 NCAA Tournament according to metrics and wins? Mike Marteny takes a look

The NCAA Tournament seedings are usually a hotly contested topic from the time that the bracket drops until someone cuts down the nets. Some of these are based on how teams finished. Some are based on metrics. Before we go too off the rails about seeding, it is worth noting a few rules that the selection committee follows to keep the brackets balanced and give the higher-seeded teams some sort of advantage for a regular season well done. These aren't the only wacky seeds, but they are the 12 worst.

The 1 and 2 seeds are assigned to the closest possible region. The same happens with 3 and 4 seeds, but the caveat is that the top four teams in the same conference must be in different regionals if all are seeded 4 or higher. That's how you wind up with Kansas in the East, because Houston, Iowa State, and Arizona were seeded higher and already in the other three regions. The top four seeds in each region are added together by overall seed. If there is a greater than six-point difference, the committee will redo part of the seeding. This year, the East (31) is the strongest region, and the West (37) is the weakest. They were right at the threshold with no other movement required.

The committee is also told to avoid possible regular-season rematches in the first weekend. That's how UCLA wound up in the East. If Purdue and UCLA both won in round 1, they would have faced each other in Round 2 in St. Louis, so UCLA is bumped to Philly, and Miami to St. Louis. That is also how Villanova wound up out West. They played Michigan in the regular season this year. The only other thing that could cause issues is that BYU must be placed in a region where they would play on Saturday for religious purposes. This year, it wasn't an issue since BYU would be closest to a south or west subregional, both of which play on Saturday.

Overseeded - (1) Florida

The AP loves the Gators. So did the committee. So do the newfangled metrics. Florida's best wins are over Alabama and Arkansas. They played Arizona, UConn, and Duke, but lost all three.

The Gators are getting credit just for showing up and playing good teams. The SEC had the worst record against other power conferences this year, and Arkansas was the only other team besides Florida that finished ranked in the top 15 in the SEC.

There is a reason that Florida has been around 10-15 in my rankings for the last six weeks or so. They deserve credit for winning games, but there were no "big" wins in the SEC. Not like there are in the Big 10 and Big 12.

Florida getting bullied by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament had them as a 3-seed for me. The RPI suggests they should be a 2. Florida inflated its NET ranking just by showing up in non-conference games.

To be fair, the Gators played all three teams tough, but if they were indeed one of the top four teams in the country, they should have won one of those, right?

Overseeded - (2) Purdue

By around 7:30 Eastern time on Friday, college basketball will have a new all-time assists king. Purdue's run through the Big Ten Tournament put them on the 2 line, even though they may have been fortunate to get a 3 seed before the tournament started.

Their last win against a ranked team was at the end of January, and they lost to two unranked teams in February. Purdue is slightly overseeded by NET rankings (9), but they are vastly overseeded by RPI.

You know, the ranking system that didn't consider which conference logo was on your court. Purdue is 14th in RPI, behind such disrespected teams as Utah State and North Carolina.

I'm not going to complain about North Carolina's seeding because the loss of Caleb Wilson is significant. This isn't the same team without him, and North Carolina was seeded accordingly. That's where the human element comes in.

Neither the NET nor the RPI factor in injuries. Purdue is 4th in WAB (wins above bubble) ranking, suggesting that the Boilermakers have 9.12 wins over their schedule than the average bubble team.

The issue with that is WAB doesn't factor in getting blown out at home by fellow 2-seed Iowa State.

Overseeded - (3) Illinois

The Illini are eighth in the NET ranking, but 21st in RPI and 18th in WAB. Those numbers suggest a four-seed at best.

The big non-conference wins, Texas Tech and Alabama, both took a hit by the end of the season. Illinois was solid throughout the Big Ten season. This is a fun team to watch, but they should be on the 4-line.

Overseeded - (4) Kansas

The committee did the Big 12 a solid here for having the toughest conference in college basketball this season. By keeping Kansas as its 15th-overall seed, it prevented the Jayhawks and the Big 12 from having a highly ranked conference foe in the same bracket.

Had Kansas been a lower seed, it could have been in a bracket with Arizona, Iowa State, or Houston. Kansas is still a huge brand. The NCAA didn't want that after the Jayhawks got manhandled by Houston in Kansas City.

#5 UH BLASTS #14 KANSAS 69-47

- 👑 STON FLEMINGS 21 PTS, 4 REB, 3 STL
- CHRIS CENAC 17 PTS, 14 REB
- SHARP 9PTS BUT 3/6 FROM 3
-UH WAS 10/18 FROM 3
- 25 % IS THE WORST FG % KU HAS HAD IN A BIG 12 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT GAME SINCE 2002 V. OKLAHOMA SAMPSON THE COACH.

WHOSE 🏠!? pic.twitter.com/G60KwQE46r

— Cougar Dave! (@UHClayborn33) March 14, 2026

The RPI and WAB rankings were kind to Kansas. What's telling for me is that Kansas is 21st in the NET rankings. That's unusual when the WAB (16) is higher. That makes this Kansas overall seeding peculiar to me.

The committee is basically told to ignore RPI now. Both of the ranking systems that they are told to use have Kansas in the 5-6 seed area.

This feels like an overcorrection for Kansas not having Darryn Peterson for a third of the season. The thing is...Kansas wasn't a far worse team without Peterson. Statistically, they were close to the same. The Jayhawks went 9-2 without Peterson this year.

Overseeded - (4) Alabama

This has nothing to do with the Aden Holloway situation. The bracket was released before that. Alabama is 19th in RPI, 18th in NET, and 15th in WAB. All of the metrics profile as a 5-seed at best.

The only thing that partially explains this is a head-to-head win against St. John's back in November on a neutral court. Alabama losing to a 15-seed (in the SEC!!) Ole Miss in the conference tournament should have hurt the seeding. It didn't come close.

Overseeded - (5) Wisconsin

The Badgers are terrible in the RPI (30) and lackluster in the NET (25). There were several at-large teams left out with RPIs in the low 20s back when that tool was used.

Even so, Wisconsin profiles more as a 7- to 9 seed than a 5. Now you understand why High Point is a trendy upset pick. Wisconsin may be the most overseeded team in the entire tournament.

The WAB ranking (20) is the only thing that suggests Wisconsin may be in the right spot. Wisconsin is getting a lot of credit for winning in Ann Arbor back in January. It may have been the best win of the season for any team.

The Badgers also beat Illinois in Champaign (and again in Chicago) and Michigan State. The big wins are there, but those are usually weighted in NET rankings.

Losses to Oregon, Indiana, and USC ended up hurting Wisconsin's metrics. The committee gave them a lot of credit for big wins, something which I don't totally oppose. However, there are teams below Wisconsin that deserved this spot more.

Overseeded - (7) Kentucky

This is where we see a giant discrepancy in the RPI and NET rankings...and explains why the NCAA only wants NET rankings used. Kentucky stepped on the court with Louisville, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and North Carolina...and lost all of them.

Two of them were losses by more than 15 points. However, the NET gives Kentucky credit just for being there. The RPI has Kentucky at 36, behind 12-seed McNeese, 12-seed Akron, 11-seed VCU, and 11-seed South Florida.

Kentucky is 26th in WAB and 28th in the NET rankings. Kentucky should be an 8-seed at best, but is getting a lot of credit for beating a Tennessee team twice that is somehow still ranked with 11 losses.

Underseeded - (2) Houston

Houston should have the fourth No. 1 seed. They made the finals of the Big 12 Tournament and lost a close one, unlike Florida, which was rolled by Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals.

The committee insists that conference tournaments matter. If they do, Houston making the Big 12 Final and losing by five to the second-ranked team in the country should matter more.

Underseeded - (4) Arkansas

This may seem strange to you since I spend a lot of time on how undeserving Florida is, but the metrics support Arkansas. The NET doesn't (17), but the Hogs are 7 in RPI and 11 in WAB.

Arkansas won the SEC Tournament and has won seven of the last eight games. The only loss was in Gainesville. I want a team that is playing well in the tournament.

While I think Arkansas deserved a better seed, the draw as a 3-seed couldn't possibly be any better. Arkansas got the best possible draw in the first round against a Hawaii team that absolutely does not switch on defense.

All-American Darius Acuff Jr. is going to be a PROBLEM in the NCAA Tournament. His numbers against Vandy in the SEC Tournament Title game:

37 MIN | 30 PTS | 3 REB | 11 AST | 9-20 FG | 5-8 3PT | 7-8 FT

How far do you have Arkansas going in the tourney?? 🤔🤔 pic.twitter.com/qKYtOet1Jn

— MBB Performances (@mbbperformances) March 17, 2026

Darius Acuff Jr. is the best isolation scorer in college. If they win that, a second-round game against High Point would be very entertaining. They will more than likely draw a slightly overseeded Wisconsin.

Underseeded - (5) St. John's

Someone really needs to explain to me how UConn is a 2 seed and St. John's is a 5. St John's beat UConn twice, the last time a 20-point domination in the Big East Tournament.

I'm not denying Connecticut's 2-seed. This is about St. John's being so low without the horrid losses that UConn had (Marquette and Creighton). St. John's is 14th in the NET and RPI, and 13th in WAB. That suggests a strong four seed.

The four-seed that St. John's should have had would have been at the expense of Kansas. That would put them in the exact same spot on the bracket.

However, the 12-seed that St. John's has to face, Northern Iowa, is arguably the worst possible matchup in the first round for the Red Storm. Cal Baptist would have been a much more favorable matchup for St. John's.

Underseeded - (5) Vanderbilt

The Commodores disposed of Florida and gave Arkansas a run in Nashville, but weren't given much credit for it. This one is really strange to me because Vanderbilt is 10th in WAB and 13th in the NET rankings.

That would put them as a solid 3-seed if they had Kentucky or Kansas on the front of the jersey. For a conference that the committee claims was the "best" with nine at-large bids, giving Vanderbilt a 5-seed is all about the name on the jersey. Vandy isn't a name brand, and they suffer for it.

Underseeded - (9) Utah State

The Mountain West as a whole was 113th in the NET rankings. That's sixth out of 31 conferences, and the best NET ranking ever for a conference that did not get an at-large bid. The MWC got no respect, and Utah State got no respect for winning the regular season and conference tournament titles.

The Aggies are 12th in the RPI, but NET has them at 26, and WAB has them at 31. Now you see why the NCAA doesn't want the RPI rankings used anymore. They can justify the 9-seed with the NET and WAB rankings. RPI tells a much different story.

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