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RotoBaller's 2026 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued hitters and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.
With Opening Day just days away, it's time to identify some breakout hitters. These hitters are poised to take the next step in their development this season and could provide massive value at their current price tag.
In this piece, we will spotlight nine of our RotoBaller Fantasy Baseball Staff's breakout hitters, including Cam Smith, Addison Barger, Daylen Lile, and more.
Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X for the latest content and our award-winning player news desk for breaking injury and lineup updates over the course of the season. Let's dive in!
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Cam Smith, OF, Houston Astros
ADP - 327
Allow me to borrow some thoughts from my bold predictions piece here, as Smith could become the post-hype breakout of the year. With only 32 pro games under his belt, he earned a starting role in Houston after a scorching spring (and a lack of options for the Astros).
He opened his rookie year with a robust 28.6% line-drive rate that was second best in the league before the All-Star break, producing a 116 wRC+ before enduring a slump down the stretch. But he was young and had barely played in the minors, let alone gone through the demands of a full 162 in the bigs.
It would not be surprising to see him stronger and more comfortable on his second trip around the circuit. This should also help him take advantage of the 95th percentile sprint speed.
Smith only had eight steals on nine attempts as a rookie, which should mean the team lets him go as he sees fit. Having just turned 23 here, we may still be a couple of years away from Smith’s power potential fully emerging, but we could fly into 20 HRs and 25 SBs with a healthy average. And maybe the power does mature early?
Cam Smith didn’t just homer today, he launched a missile.
440 feet, 107.5 exit velocity pic.twitter.com/ckO5pbU86O
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) March 9, 2026
- Written by Nick Mariano
Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP - 200.2
Addison Barger put together a productive showing in his first full MLB season in 2025. After appearing in only 69 games in 2024, Barger would log 135 games in 2025 to the tune of a .243/.301/.454 line. The 26-year-old went deep 21 times and swiped four bags. However, there is much to like about his profile, and a 30-HR season is in the cards.
According to Statcast, Barger was one of the best pure power hitters in the game. He placed in the 93rd percentile in bat speed, 91st in hard-hit rate, and 86th in average exit velocity. His 116.5 mph max exit velocity is in the top three percent of the entire sport.
On the surface, his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA were all higher than his base statistics, suggesting he should see some nice positive regression, given how hard he hits the ball. However, Barger looks even more intriguing for 2026 when looking deeper into his batted-ball profile.
In 2025, Barger generated a 21.2% Pull AIR rate, which was well above the average. Additionally, this was a nice jump from the 18.8% Pull AIR rate generated in his debut season. With another year of experience under his belt, and given how hard he hits the ball, another increase in his pull AIR rate can set him up for a 30+ HR season.
While playing time was a concern at the start of the offseason, right-fielder Anthony Santander (shoulder) is set to open the season on the 60-day IL, leaving Barger as the clear option in right field on Opening Day. Target Barger with confidence at his current price.
The #BlueJays exploded for five runs before even recording an out.
Addison Barger just launched a three-run shot off the batter's eye, a no-doubter. pic.twitter.com/iHBOSMbn41
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) July 2, 2025
- Written by Andy Smith
Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals
ADP - 199.2
Sometimes, younger players need time to adjust to the Major League level. There have been plenty of examples in the past of players struggling offensively as rookies and then tearing it up at the plate in Year 2. Just look at Crow-Armstrong. In 2024, he hit 10 home runs with a .237 batting average across 372 at-bats. In 2025, he then hit 31 home runs en route to a breakout campaign.
Kansas City Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone could follow a similar path to Crow-Armstrong in 2026. Caglianone really struggled in his first taste in the big leagues, hitting just .157 with seven home runs and 18 RBI across 232 plate appearances. However, the two biggest things to be encouraged by with him are that both his barrel rate (12%) and bat speed (77.4 mph) ranked extremely well.
The Royals might have called up Caglianone a bit too early last year, but the 23-year-old has all the talent to break out in his first full Major League season. The power is certainly there for him to do so after hitting 20 home runs across 264 Minor League at-bats last year. In those 66 games, the Royals slugger had an expected .574 slugging, an 11.7% barrel rate, a 52.3% hard-hit rate, and an 86.4% zone-contact swing.
As a result, Caglianone could hit 30 home runs in 2026. He is likely more comfortable at the plate entering his second season and posted some solid numbers in the pool play round of the World Baseball Classic for Team Italy. The outfielder went 3-for-8 with one double, one home run, three RBI, one stolen base, three walks, and two strikeouts in the pool play round. He's a nice bet to break out this year.
- Written by Joey Pollizze
Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets
ADP - 166 (NFBC is a two-catcher format, so this gets inflated)
Alvarez may feel “done and dusted” as he enters his fifth season, yet he made his MLB debut at 20 and is far from a polished product at the dish. Folks had moved on after he required a month at Triple-A to reset. He also suffered through a torn thumb ligament and a fractured pinky by September.
The overall .256/.339/.447 triple slash with 11 HRs in 76 games won’t move many needles. But in the final 41 games, despite his injuries, he delivered a .276/.360/.561 slash line. His issues catching up to the heat were addressed, with the whiff rate against them halved while his slugging percentage doubled.
Sporting a more open stance with the bat closer to his shoulder as a “ready” position, which not only helped his timing, but it allowed his swing path to attack all fields. He did overperform his xStats during the hot stretch (.240 xBA, .487 xSLG), but I’ll call it even with the maimed hand.
Give me these mechanics with a healthy Alvarez who is still approaching his prime. We got to peek at what an unlocked Alvarez is capable of, but it was brief enough that many would’ve either missed it entirely or written it off as a blip.
Francisco Alvarez just hit one 439 feet over the batter's eye in center field. He's OPS'ing 1.636 this spring. pic.twitter.com/VcuTy91Ntx
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) March 10, 2026
- Written by Nick Mariano
Colson Montgomery, 3B/SS, Chicago White Sox
ADP - 156.1
Chicago White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery had a breakout campaign of sorts in his first big league season in 2025. He slashed .239/.311/.529 with 21 home runs, nine doubles, and 55 RBI across 71 games. Those 21 home runs were the second-most among all rookies, and the 24-year-old was hitting a home run about every 12.1 at-bats. For context, Shohei Ohtani hit a home run about every 11.1 at-bats last year.
There's no doubt that Montgomery showed some encouraging things in Year 1. However, this is the year that fantasy managers will see him put it all together at the plate. He has a strong chance to hit over 30 home runs after finishing with a 14.5% barrel rate in 2025, and his elite bat speed (77 mph) should give managers confidence in his power potential at the plate.
452 FEET. COLSON MONTGOMERY. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/S7MeNJljG3
— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) August 10, 2025
While his whiff rate (31.5%) and strikeout rate (29.2%) need to improve from his rookie season, there's too much to love here about Montgomery. He had an impressive 27.2% pull AIR rate, a solid 44.5% hard-hit rate, and an above-average wxOBA (.341) last year. Considering the young shortstop has one season under his belt, he should be a better all-around hitter at the plate with the potential to hit over 30 long balls.
That's why he is a strong draft target at his 156.1 ADP in Yahoo! leagues. Count on him continuing to grow as a hitter in his second Major League season.
- Written by Joey Pollizze
Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
ADP - 221.5
Going just a round past Caglianone is another outfielder primed to turn in a career season. Abreu was a productive outfielder last season, posting a .247/.317/.469 line with 22 home runs and six stolen bases. However, the 26-year-old was kept in a platoon, which increased his base statistics.
Last season, Abreu made just eight total starts against southpaws. When facing them, he posted a low .676 OPS, which encouraged Boston to keep him in a limited role. However, the Red Sox have had a change of heart this winter and plan to keep Abreu in the lineup against left-handed starters, opening the door for him to appear in the lineup on a daily basis.
When on the field, Abreu is very productive and could greatly outperform this cost, even if he were to struggle against left-handed starters. He generated a .335 xwOBA with a 12.3% barrel rate and a 74.1 mph average bat speed, all of which were above the average marks.
Abreu has also raised his pull AIR rate in each of his three MLB seasons, and that could be the driving force for his breakout. In 2025, Abreu posted an elite 25.7% pull AIR rate, one of the highest in the sport.
Even if he struggles against left-handers, his elite glove will give him a long leash to work out his struggles. Once he finds his footing, a 30+ HR season with a >.260 AVG while adding high-end counting stats is possible. The best part is that managers are drafting him as if he will remain in a platoon role.
Wilyer Abreu Viewed as "Everyday" Player in Boston Lineuphttps://t.co/bYOffGwlBe
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) February 11, 2026
- Written by Andy Smith
Ivan Herrera, DH, St. Louis Cardinals
ADP - 170
Ivan Herrera was supposed to be a breakout hitter last season, but injuries limited him to just 107 games. Even so, it was still a breakout in many ways. Just five games into the campaign, the Panamanian blasted three home runs in a single game, then followed it up with a home run in his very next game.
The hot streak was brought to a screeching halt in the following game with a knee injury. He returned in May, but was primarily a DH for the rest of the season and did not start playing full-time again until August. The 5-foot-11 backstop's season ended with a September to remember, belting eight home runs in the month with a .412 wOBA and a 170 wRC+.
All in all, he tallied 19 home runs in 452 plate appearances, good for a 25-homer pace if given 600 PA. An 11.0 percent barrel rate should sustain the power again in 2026, and with a better-than-average 18.6 percent strikeout rate, the right-handed hitter should continue to put the bat on the ball. All of his expected stats (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) all ranked 86th-percentile or better, too, so nothing seemed fluky.
The 25-year-old has dealt with knee inflammation again this spring, but it is thought to be a result of catching, so he'll likely continue to be the team's designated hitter until the knee allows him to get behind the plate. As a result, hopefully, any type of knee-related IL stint should be avoided.
He finished as the sixth-ranked catcher for fantasy last season despite the missed time, so a top-five finish this season isn't out of the question, yet he's going around pick No. 170 in fantasy drafts. While he does not meet eligibility criteria on NFBC as of writing, he does on Yahoo!, making him an even stronger target on that platform.
- Written by Jarod Rupp
Owen Caissie, OF, Miami Marlins
ADP - 377
Is he the next Adam Dunn, he of the Three True Outcomes worship? Caissie was a big piece of the return from Chicago to Miami in exchange for Edward Cabrera this offseason, and 2025 gave us a big-league moment to catch why. Before that, he was part of the deal that moved Yu Darvish to San Diego.
The masher only had 15 MLB batted-ball events, but two were barrels, eight qualified as a “launch angle sweet spot” hit, and one produced a 114 mph exit velo on a double to right-center field. However, he also struck out 11 times in 27 PAs, so get used to the “swing big, miss big” if you watch him.
But this is a guy who went 45th overall in the 2020 draft and had to make a transition to a professional organization during the pandemic. He kept at it and produced a strong .918 OPS at Double-A as a 20-year-old, followed by an .887 Triple-A OPS over two years without a starting vacancy at Wrigley.
The 6-foot-4 slugger is the No. 42 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and could follow in Stowers’ footsteps as someone who dominates righties and holds his own against southpaws. He also quietly swiped 11 bags in 127 games two seasons ago, though that fell to an iffy 5-for-9 success rate over 99 Triple-A tilts last year. A 35/10 season is possible!
- Written by Nick Mariano
Gabriel Moreno, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP - 176
Gabriel Moreno is another catcher on this list who could be in store for a very solid 2026 campaign. His 2025 season hit a bump when he went down with a hairline fracture in his index finger, but his overall metrics across the 83 games he played were pretty solid.
Overall, he posted a 90.4 mph average exit velocity, .346 xwOBA, .453 xSLG, 39.8% LA-Sweet Spot rate, and 31.1% squared-up rate. Additionally, he posted just a 17.2% K rate and 18% whiff rate, both of which were very respectable.
This all translated into a .285/.353/.433 slash line, with nine HRs, 40 RBI, and 44 R across just 309 PA. If Moreno can stay healthy in 2026, he could put up much bigger numbers in this potent Diamondbacks lineup. That is a big if for Moreno, as he has had trouble staying healthy and is currently dealing with forearm soreness in spring training, but remains on track to be cleared ahead of Opening Day.
Keep an eye on him over the next couple of weeks, and if he can return (he should) in spring training, look to fire on him in your drafts as a No. 2 catcher with high upside.
- Written by Kipp Heisterman
Daylen Lile, OF, Washington Nationals
ADP - 200.6
Daylen Lile was a league-winner over the final stretch of the second half and is primed to carry this momentum into 2026. Over his first 66 MLB games, Lile held a modest .262/.309/.389 line with three home runs and seven stolen bases. However, once September arrived, the 23-year-old found his stride.
Over the final month of the season (25 games), Lile posted a dominant .391/.440/.772 line with six home runs and one stolen base. He has added three doubles with an eye-catching seven triples. While his stolen base production declined, he found his footing as a hitter, which is a great sign for his 2026 outlook.
Overall, he finished his first 91 games in Washington with a .348 xwOBA, an elite 100th percentile .302 xBA, and a 44.2% LA sweet-spot rate. Lile found much of his success in how he hit the ball. While he does not make loud contact (20th percentile barrel rate), he generated a strong 20.1% pull AIR rate, which plays quite well alongside his elite LA sweet-spot rate.
He does not hit the ball hard, but he hits it to the pull side, which will keep his batting average high and, more importantly, open the door for more home runs.
Lile also placed the 92nd percentile in sprint speed, suggesting he should be in a prime position to swipe 20 bases over a full season. The 23-year-old is a legit 20/20 candidate who can hit around .300.
TRIPLES FROM A NATS ROOKIE:
3. Turner (8)
2. Harper (9)1. LILE (TEN) pic.twitter.com/2vtJvoTM42
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 16, 2025
- Written by Andy Smith
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