RADIO
With six weeks left in the NFL season, one record I am keeping a close eye on is Mike Evans' consecutive 1000-yard mark. Right now, the streak is in real jeopardy. Heading into Week 13, Evans is sitting at 403 receiving yards on the season. That means Evans would require 597 receiving yards over the final six Buccaneers contests if he were to extend his streak to 11 consecutive 1000-yard seasons to start a career.
Besides Evans, we are also looking at which receivers we can trust and which wide receivers are most likely to bust this week. In Week 12, Jordan Addison led the way with eight catches, 162 yards, and a touchdown, just as we all predicted. We also saw some estranged family members show up at the table, as D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Jaylen Waddle all contributed to the top 12 fantasy finishes.
There is plenty of room at the table for seconds with Rotoballer's Week 13 starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Week 13 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Garrett Wilson - WR, New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks
Heading into the Jets' Week 12 bye, Garrett Wilson was the WR5 for fantasy. Wilson is fifth in receptions with 69 and 12th in receiving yards with 722, averaging 9.7 targets per game, a 27.6% targets share, accounting for an air yard share of 39.1% with an average depth of target of 9.2. Add that all up, and it is a recipe for fantasy success.
INSANE @GarrettWilson_V 🤯 pic.twitter.com/9iyccffEHS
— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2024
I dug deeper into the numbers. Wilson's 0.103 receiving first downs per route run is 14th in the NFL among pass catchers with at least 250 routes while earning a 34.1% first-read target share even with Davante Adams in town.
Over the last four weeks, no team has allowed more fantasy production to the wide receiver position than the Seattle Seahawks. That includes limiting the Cardinals duo of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson to 151 combined yards. Over this period, Seattle has allowed 51 receptions, 556 receiving yards, and five touchdowns in those three contests, pushing that per-game total to 43.57.
Ladd McConkey - WR, Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
I would have included Quentin Johnston in this week's start list, however, if someone were to pass him the dinner rolls, he'd probably drop them. So let's focus on someone who can catch, and that's Ladd McConkey. Even before the Week 12 kickoff for Monday Night Football, McConkey had already cemented himself as Justin Herbert's top target. In Week 8 through 11, McConkey was the WR10 in fantasy, averaging 16.5 fantasy points per contest.
Since the bye week, the Chargers have been taking to the air a little more frequently. McConkey entered Week 12 with an average target depth of 10.8 while averaging 2.44 yards per route and bolstering yards per reception mark of 14.44. McConkey's 0.122 receiving first downs per route run trails only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trey McBride, and Stefon Diggs among pass catchers with at least 250 routes ran this season.
When McConkey steps inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium, he will face a Falcons secondary that has allowed 37.69 fantasy points per game this season to opposing wideouts and has surrendered 1,676 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. Those 15 touchdowns are the third-most in the league this season, with six of them coming over the Falcons' last three contests where the "Dirty Birds" look more like a flock of turkeys allowing 42.48 fantasy points per game.
Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR, Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
After watching both Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore of the Bears combine for more than 190 yards receiving, a pair of touchdowns, and more than 45 fantasy points, it would be foolish not to have Marvin Harrison Jr. on your radar once again this week. If fantasy managers decide to fade Harrison, I get it. After all, he had just 47 receiving yards on three receptions in a good matchup last week against the Seahawks.
It's hard to trust this Cardinals offense, but if you can't trust Marvin Harrison Jr. in a matchup against the second-friendliest defense toward opposing receivers, when can you trust him? Minnesota has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns and 2,075 receiving yards on 162 receptions this season for an average of 41.10 fantasy points per game.
In all likelihood, we will see Harrison Jr., who lines up on the left side of the formation 39% of the time and on the right side 37% of the time, locked into a one-on-one battle with Stephon Gilmore, who defends the left side 46% of the time and the right 47% of the snaps. Teams are targeting Gilmore at a rate of 17.1%, and he has allowed 0.24 fantasy points per route run this season. That shouldn't scare Kyler Murray from attacking that matchup.
Bonus
Here are some wide receivers who have favorable fantasy playoff schedules (Week 15 through Week 17)
Malik Nabers (Baltimore, Atlanta, Indianapolis)
Courtland Sutton (Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati)
Ladd McConkey (Tampa Bay, Denver, New England)
Calvin Ridley (Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville)
Terry McLaurin (New Orleans, Philadelphia, Atlanta)
Week 13 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Zay Flowers - WR, Baltimore Ravens vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Let's give credit where credit is due. Heading into that Week 12 contest against the Los Angeles Chargers, Zay Flowers was the WR8 in fantasy, producing a little over 153 fantasy points and averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game. Once again the Ravens receiver was solid catching five passes for 62 yards, finishing with just over 11 fantasy points.
Flowers isn't a must-sit this week as the Ravens move him around, as 38% of his routes come from the slot and 40% on the right boundary. Regardless of where he goes, he will need to fend off either Quinyon Mitchell or Cooper DeJean, who are regarded to be among the best at their respective positions.
Over the last four weeks, the Eagles have allowed just one receiving touchdown and 279 receiving yards to opposing receivers, which caps Flowers' ceiling somewhat. There is hope. Cooper Kupp caught one touchdown, and he secured that along with 60 receiving yards, while Puka Nacua hauled in nine passes for 117 yards. Then there is Terry McLaurin's one grab for 10 yards, CeeDee Lamb's six for 21, and Brian Thomas Jr.'s two for 22 receiving yards from the previous weeks.
D.K. Metcalf - WR, Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets
No team in the NFL is allowing fewer fantasy points this season than the New York Jets' 26.48. In 11 games thus far, New York has surrendered 1,340 receiving yards, the second-fewest, and seven touchdown receptions, also ranking in the top 5 of fantasy futility.
Get that popcorn ready for D.K. Metcalf versus Sauce Gardner. The last time we saw these two heavyweights go at it was back in the 2022-23 season, and it got heated. In that Week 17 showdown, Gardner held Metcalf to one reception for five yards; I remember that because that was during the Fantasy Football Championship. Talk about a bad beat.
Sauce Gardner put up a career-high 4 passes defensed against the Seahawks today.
And DK Metcalf ended the game with just 3 receiving yards 😳 pic.twitter.com/M89eE7Zxbi
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) January 2, 2023
One different thing this time around is the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who, in nine games alongside Metcalf, has 74 targets, one fewer than his running mate. Smith-Njigba has also been the better receiver as of late, averaging 26.2 fantasy points per game over his last three contests while averaging 7.7 receptions and 122.3 yards. I'm not sure if that helps or hinders Metcalf's ceiling, but I am certainly intrigued.
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders vs. Tennessee Titans
Talk about your ultimate fantasy bailout. Terry McLaurin's stat line for Week 12 will read five receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. However, that touchdown and 86 of those yards came with about 30 seconds remaining. That one garbage-time catch pushed McLaurin's fantasy numbers from 6.6 to 21.2. One week earlier, McLaurin was locked up and limited to two fantasy points against the Eagles.
TERRY MCLAURIN
86-YARD TOUCHDOWN
😱😱😱 pic.twitter.com/Y29DXXD6IL
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 24, 2024
It's hard to trust McLaurin this week as the Titans allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points (27.54) to the position per game. They have limited opposing wide receivers to eight touchdowns and 1,348 receiving yards, which is a league-best. Over the previous four weeks, the Titans have allowed just 421 receiving yards and four scores.
Not all fantasy points are created equal, and anything can happen at any time, but lightning striking twice in back-to-back weeks is one thing fantasy managers should not count on.
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