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Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2024. His WR lineups advice for Week 16 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Christmas is coming early this year. The Broncos and Chargers kick off Week 16 on Thursday night, followed by a doubleheader on Saturday featuring contests between the Chiefs and Texans and the Steelers and Ravens.
Now, for your weekly Mike Evans update. Evans not only dropped 36.9 fantasy points on Sunday but also caught nine passes for 159 yards. With those 159 receiving yards, Evans pushes his total on the season to 749 yards. With three games remaining, Evans needs to average 83.7 receiving yards per game to extend his consecutive 1000-yard streak to 11 seasons.
Here are the RotoBaller Week 16 starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Week 16 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
Coming into Week 16, it's hard to argue that there has been a bigger breakout star than Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season. Through 14 weeks, JSN is WR6, producing 217.5 fantasy points while averaging 15.5 per contest. Since Week 11, the Seahawks receiver has turned it on averaging 18.3 fantasy points and registering the seventh-most fantasy points at the wide receiver position.
JSN is averaging 2.04 yards per route run this season and 8.95 yards per target. But his production has been coming after the catch, where 440 of his 994 yards this season have come. That 5.18 yards after the catch per reception is more than Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Jerry Jeudy.
Do you require further proof that the Seahawks may be transitioning away from D.K. Metcalf? In Week 15, JSN saw a career-high 50% first-read target share. That was the highest single-game first-read target share for a Seahawks receiver since 2022. Smith-Njigba, not Metcalf, Doug Baldwin, or Steve Largent, became the first Seahawks receiver to record 70 or more receiving yards in six straight games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba with a new career-high 50% first-read target share in Week 15.
That's the highest single-game rate for a Seattle Seahawk since 2022.
(Source: @FantasyPtsData) pic.twitter.com/liPqu6PtTP
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 16, 2024
Smith-Njigba is on pace for 100 receptions, 1,200 yards, and seven touchdowns and should easily break the 1000-yard receiving club this week against a Vikings team that allows 40-plus fantasy points per game this season to wide receivers.
Brian Thomas Jr. - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Do you know who's been even better after the catch than JSN? Brian Thomas Jr., that's who.
Of the rookie's 956 receiving yards, 441 of them come after the catch. Thomas has fewer receptions than his peers, but his 6.89 yards after the catch perception is second only to Jameson Williams, and he's been doing some of his damage with Mac Jones under center.
Despite inadequate quarterback play for much of the season, Thomas is proving to be quarterback-proof. Thomas is currently the WR7 on the season with 214.6 fantasy points to his credit while averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game. Since Week 13, Thomas has averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game, the sixth-most.
You gotta prepare for him.
RT to #ProBowlVote for @BrianThomas_11! pic.twitter.com/Hwceuw2bpr
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 15, 2024
If you want fantasy points, start your studs against the Raiders. We know of the Raiders' woes against the tight end position, but their secondary has been in pretty bad shape in recent weeks. Over the last four weeks, excluding the Monday Night Football contest with the Falcons, the Raiders had allowed 41.85 fantasy points per game to the position and surrendered 729 yards and six touchdowns on 58 receptions.
Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
We already talked about Evans' pursuit of 1,000 yards. Evans will have another chance to take a huge step toward that milestone this week against the Dallas Cowboys. On the season, the Cowboys have yielded 2,203 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns, and 34.87 fantasy points per game to the position. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed four of those 13 touchdown receptions along with 730 receiving yards and 40.6 fantasy points per game, the fourth-most.
Records matter. Legacies matter. The streak matters, and Baker Mayfield knows it. Since Week 12, Evans is averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game, the fifth-most among wide receivers. In Evans's last four contests, the Buccaneers receiver has averaged 103.5 yards per game and produced 414 of his 759 receiving yards. Over that period, he has also accounted for a 28.3 target share, earning 8.5 targets per game and a 32.9% first-read target share.
Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans may be one of the best QB-WR duos in the NFL 🐶 pic.twitter.com/jFUw4pCgc0
— Jordan Moore (@iJordanMoore) December 15, 2024
Among receivers with 40 or more routes run over that four-week sample, only Puka Nacua averages more fantasy points per route run than Evans's 0.86.
Making the matchup even better this week is the fact that the Cowboys will be without cornerback Trevon Diggs, who is set to have surgery to repair an issue related to his articular cartilage
#Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs will have surgery to repair an issue related to his articular cartilage, source said. His recovery could take up to 8 months. https://t.co/ud4hUg0NUM
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 16, 2024
Week 16 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This one stings a little, considering Terry McLaurin is the WR5 overall and has produced 20 or more fantasy points in three straight contests. Here's the thing: the game before that little streak came against the Philadelphia Eagles, and in that game, McLaurin was held in check by Quinyon Mitchell and company.
Week 12 Shadow Report per @FantasyPtsData
- Quinyon Mitchell with the 0.0 FP line for Terry McLaurin on 22 routes
- Treveon Diggs held Nico to 2.1 FP
- Joey Porter shutdown Bateman
- McDuffie shutdown Amari Cooper
- Elite CB performances this week pic.twitter.com/ZMTeRPrFVX— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) November 19, 2024
In Week 11, the Eagles held McLaurin to one reception, resulting in just 10 receiving yards. That's the only time in the last 12 contests that McLaurin has failed to reach 13 fantasy points, but it is significant.
I always like to throw in a temper-your-expectations pick, so here it is. McLaurin has 10 receiving touchdowns this season after having just nine during the 2022 and 2023 seasons combined. You must return to 1991 to find a Washington receiver who finished with 10 or more touchdowns. Shout out to Gary Clark, who accomplished the feat 33 years ago.
Again, it's all about risk management and letting you know about the risks. We know what happened last time these teams met, and we know Philadelphia has yielded just 522 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns over the previous four weeks, resulting in 27.48 fantasy points per game against, the fifth-fewest. The Eagles have been even stingier during the season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game.
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
When Anthony Richardson returns to the starting lineup, you find yourself on the weekly sit list if your name is Michael Pittman. Richardson is talented, as is Pittman. However, combining them is the fantasy football equivalent of oil and water. They just repel one another.
Since Week 8, Pittman has just one fantasy finish with over 10 fantasy points. Pittman has averaged just 8.2 fantasy points per game over that period, and his 49.2 fantasy points landed him as the WR70. That makes him a WR6 at best, and that is probably being generous.
Pittman is doing nothing with his 22.3% target share, as only 72.5% of his 40 targets since Week 8 have been deemed catchable. Unfortunately, things aren't projected to get any better this week against a Titans team that is allowing 29.60 fantasy points, the sixth-fewest on the season.
Amari Cooper - WR, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
I am just done. Last week's matchup was excellent, with plenty of offense. Buffalo scored 48 points. Josh Allen threw the ball 34 times, completing 23 passes for 362 yards. Do you recall how many receptions and yards Amari Cooper had? Zero. That's right, he laid a giant Cooper Kupp Sunday on fantasy managers. Fantasy football had already given me trust issues, and this certainly doesn't help relieve them.
Amari Cooper yesterday in a game Josh Allen dropped back 37 times:
* 32-of-70 snaps (46%)
* 15 routes (40%)
* 0 targetsNote that in Week 14 against Rams, Amari played 53% of the snaps, ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks, and saw 14 targets for a 38% share.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 16, 2024
Cooper was traded to the Bills back on October 15, 2024. It was a move that excited fantasy managers about the potential of Cooper returning as a WR1 as he rode shotgun with the league's future MVP. In six games as a Bill, Cooper has 16 receptions for 231 receiving yards and a touchdown. Since Week 9, Cooper has 27.2 fantasy points, and you need to scroll down to WR86 to find him. In other words, when you get to Kayshon Boutte, keep scrolling.
It is probably more disappointing knowing that Cooper had 14 targets and 254 air yards the previous week and was not targeted in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. It will be interesting to see who Christian Gonzalez draws this week, considering Cooper's lack of production.
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