Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 10 Analysis

November 15, 2019

Phil Clark looks back at Week 10 targets, snaps, receptions trends for fantasy football WRs to find risers and fallers who are possible buy-lows or sell-highs.

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. As the season unfolds, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which is designed to help you fulfill your championship aspirations.

This will be the 10th installment of this weekly article that examines game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, red-zone targets, snap counts, and a compilation of advanced statistics. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities.

This week’s article will be functioning with ten weeks of data, which bolsters the foundation from which the numbers that are generated in various categories can be evaluated. As the season progresses noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. That will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats and Football Outsiders were all used as resources in compiling this data.

Week 10 Target Leaders  

Thomas continues to lead all wide receivers with 103 targets for the season. Keenan Allen is second (95), followed by DeAndre Hopkins (92), Tyler Boyd and Cooper Kupp (91). Julian Edelman is next (90), followed by Mike Evans (89), Evans’ teammate Chris Godwin (84), Julio Jones (83), and Allen Robinson (80). No other receivers have reached 80 targets for the season.

Cleveland’s Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry join D.J. Moore and Tyler Lockett in spearheading a group of 10 receivers that have collected at least 70 targets through Week 10.

27 other receivers have accumulated 50+ targets, including Tyreek Hill. The four-year veteran has stockpiled a league high 52 since Week 6, after collecting 19 in Week 10. Evans (51) is the only other receiver that has attained a total of 50+ during those contests. Hill's 42 targets during Kansas City’s last four matchups also leads all wide receivers. Allen Robinson is second during that span (37) followed by DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas with 36. Golden Tate and Lockett have been targeted 35 times during that sequence followed by Edelman, Marvin Jones, Evans, and Devante Parker - all with (34).

Hill also leads all receivers with 28 targets since Week 9. He is followed by Landry (23), Evans (22), Lockett (22), and four receivers that have all collected 21 targets - Cooper, Godwin, Moore, and Davante Adams. Anyone who owns Adams’ teammate Marquez Valdes-Scantling was forced to endure a season-low one target outing in Week 10. This continued a disturbing trend that should underscore the need to locate better starting options. Valdes-Scantling has now collected only 10 targets during his last five games combined (2-per-game). However, Hunter Renfrow has collected 12 of his 42 targets during that sequence, as the 4.3 targets-per-game average that he registered from Weeks 1-8 has risen to 6.0.

Largest Weekly Changes 

Hill’s 19 targets easily represented the largest total of Week 10. Three receivers tied for second with 14 targets - Thomas, Amari Cooper, and Darius Slayton. Odell Beckham and Chris Godwin were next with 12, followed by John Brown, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, D.J. Moore and Deebo Samuel with 11. Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup, DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, and Davante Adams completed the list of receivers who attained at least 10 targets during their Week 10 matchups.

The week’s highest target totals, collected by Hill and Slayton, also resulted in both receivers delivering the largest one week increase (+10). Allen’s 11 targets represented a rise of +7, which tied him with Cooper and Kendrick Bourne. The weekly totals for Beckham and Demaryius Thomas resulted in a surge of +6, while Kirk's total rose by +5.

Lockett's career-high 18 targets led all receivers in Week 9, but that extensive level of usage was difficult to match. The fifth-year receiver collected four targets before being sidelined with his leg injury in Week 10, which resulted in this week's largest decline (-14).

Mike Evans is the WR1 in standard scoring and is second in PPR leagues. His outstanding production should placate any owners who were disappointed in his Week 10 target total (6). However, that occurred one week after he had accumulated 16 targets, which resulted in the second-largest drop (-10). No other wide receivers endured a reduction that was as significant, as Landry, Jamison Crowder, A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries all experienced a decrease of -3.

Thomas has now reached double-digits in seven of his nine games this season. Allen and Edelman have accomplished it six times, while Hopkins, Boyd, and Kupp, have been joined by D.J. Moore in attaining 10+ targets in five different contests. Landry has reached double-digits in three consecutive matchups (10/13/10) while Moore (10/11) and Adams (11/10) have both accomplished it twice.

Amari Cooper’s target-per-game average improved from 7.1 to 7.9 after he matched his season-best target total of the season (14). Darius Slayton's average rose from 4.5 to 5.6 after he procured his career-best target total in Week 10.

Jamison Crowder averaged 4.6 targets-per-game from Weeks 2-5, but that average has improved to 6.8 per-game since Week 6. James Washington has now captured 17 targets during Pittsburgh’s last three matchups.

Cooper Kupp’s 10.9 targets per game average dropped almost a full yard to 10.1, in the aftermath of his season-low four targets in Week 10. Mike Williams had averaged 8.8 targets-per-game from Weeks 5-8, but Philip Rivers has targeted him just three times in each of the Chargers’ last two matchups.

Week 10 Yards-Per-Target Leaders

Mecole Hardman’s 13.2 yard-per-target average leads all wide receivers. He is followed by Kenny Stills (13.1), Stefon Diggs (12.9), Amari Cooper (11.9), Julio Jones (10.7) and Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams - all with an average of 10.4. It's then Courtland Sutton (10.2), Zach Pascal (10.2), Tyreek Hill (10.1) and four receivers that are averaging exactly 10 yards per target - Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Chris Conley, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. D.J. Chark (9.9) and A.J. Brown (9.9) lead a group of 12 receivers that are averaging at least 9.5 yards-per-target.

Davante Adams’ yards-per-target average increased from 8.9 to 9.4 after he averaged 11.8 in Week 10. Mike Evans' yard-per-target average actually rose (10.1 to 10.4) amid his lowest target total since Week 5. However, teammate Chris Godwin’s average dropped from 10.6 to 10.0.

Stefon Diggs’ average was also reduced by 0.7 (13.4 to 12.7) after in Week 10. Kupp’s yards-per-target average dropped from 9.1 to 8.7 after his catchless performance, while Sammy Watkins’ average declined from 8.4 to 7.9 after he registered a 4.3 average in Week 10.

Week 10 Targeted Air Yards Leaders 

Kenny Golladay leads all wide receivers in targeted air yards (16.5), followed by Mike Evans (16), James Washington (15.5), Curtis Samuel (15.5), Mike Williams (15.4), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (15.4), and Chris Conley (15.4). Robby Anderson (14.9), Ted Ginn (14.8), Darius Slayton (14.8), Stefon Diggs (14.6) and Tyrell Williams (14.5) lead a group of 11 additional receivers that are averaging 14+.

Mike Evans continues to lead the position in air yards (1,369), followed by Keenan Allen (1,128), Kenny Golladay (1,127), Curtis Samuel (1,052), Julio Jones (1,033), John Brown (990), Amari Cooper (941), DeAndre Hopkins (932), Allen Robinson (916) and D.J. Chark (912). No other wide receivers have eclipsed 900 air yards through Week 10. However, Odell Beckham (887), Stefon Diggs (879), and Marvin Jones (870) lead the collection of 10 receivers that have attained 800+.

% Share Of  Team’s Air Yards Leaders

Courland Sutton leads all receivers in percentage of team's air yards (42.64), followed by Allen Robinson (42.03), Stefon Diggs is third (41.02), followed by Terry McLaurin (40.99), Michael Thomas (39.79), Mike Evans (39.15), John Brown (38.99), Curtis Samuel (38.54), Odell Beckham (38.55), and Robby Anderson completing the top 10 (37.65). D.J. Chark (37.11), Julio Jones (35.3), Emmanuel Sanders (36.56), and Kenny Golladay (35.23) pace a group of 12 other receivers that are averaging a 30% share of their teams' air yards.

Evans' 39.15 percentage share is 15% higher than the 24.1 that has been registered by Chris Godwin. Christian Kirk now leads the Cardinals in this category (23.6) with a slight edge over Larry Fitzgerald (21.8). Slayton leads the Giants with a percentage of 21.3, while Tate is a distant second (13.6). Juju Smith-Schuster leads the Steelers (27.9) followed by James Washington (25.6) and Dionte Johnson (20.4). A.J. Brown now leads the Titans (23.5), while Corey Davis is slightly behind with 23.2.

Week 10 Red Zone Target Leaders 

Julian Edelman leads all wide receivers in red zone targets (18), followed by Michael Thomas and Mike Evans with 15. Tyler Lockett and Auden Tate are next with 14, followed by Keenan Allen (13), Jarvis Landry (13), Kenny Golladay (12), D.K. Metcalf (12), and five receivers that have attained 11 targets - Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Jones, and Emmanuel Sanders. D.J. Chark (10), Deebo Samuel, and Mike Williams (10) complete the group of players that have collected 10+ targets through Week 10.

Landry has collected six red zone targets during his last two matchups, while Thomas has stockpiled 13 targets during his last five games. Amari Cooper’s two red zone targets in Week 10 were his first since Week 5. He had also collected just four throughout the entire season before Dak Prescott launched a pair of throws in his direction when Dallas faced the Vikings. After registering at least one red zone target in seven consecutive games and accumulating nine targets from Weeks 7-9, Evans was not failed to register a target for the first time since Week 1.

Golladay continues to lead all receivers with ten targets inside the 10. Landry is second (8), followed by Edelman, Evans, Tate, Godwin, Sanders, and Larry Fitzgerald all with 7. Thomas, Marvin Jones, Terry McLaurin, and T.Y. Hilton have all captured six targets inside the 10. 11 different receivers were targeted twice inside the 20, including  Tyreek Hill,  Thomas, Cooper, D.J. Moore, and Davante Adams.

Week 10 Snap Count Leaders

Houston’s Week 10 bye allowed Tyler Lockett (657), and Chris Godwin (641), to surpass DeAndre Hopkins in total offensive snaps for the season. Hopkins is now third (629) followed by Robert Woods (617) and Mike Evans (603). No other wide receivers have played on 600+ snaps. Odell Beckham Jr. is just four snaps short of that total (596), while Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman, and D.K. Metcalf are all tied with (585).

Five Things I've Noticed

1. You may remember Tyreek Hill being labeled by some observers as a 'gadget player' during his first season. But his steady improvement into a dominating presence has obliterated that premise.

Since his return from a shoulder injury in Week 6, Hill has accumulated favorable numbers. He is also WR17 in scoring despite the lengthy absence.

His 52 targets from Weeks 6-10 lead all receivers, while Hill is also second in yardage (527) and sixth in receptions (31) during that span. He has also assembled 74+ yards in all five matchups while accruing 140+ in Weeks 9-10. He is already tied for fifth overall with four receptions of 40+ yards, sixth with a 10.4 targets-per-game average, eighth in yards-per-target average (10.2), and first in air yards per-snap (2.8).

He also leads the Chiefs in those categories, as Travis Kelce has collected 38 targets, 28 receptions, and 302 yards during the same five-game sequence. He is followed by Sammy Watkins (27 targets/17 receptions/147 yards), Demarcus Robinson (18 targets/10 receptions/98 yards), and Mecole Hardman (10 targets/9 receptions/191 yards). During Hill's absence, Kelce averaged 8.8 targets per game and 10.2 yards-per-target. But Kelce’s averages have dropped (7.6 targets-per-game/7.9 yards-per-target) since Hill’s return.

The data consistently reveals levels of usage and production that place Hill among the league leaders in virtually every category. He should continue to reward his owners for their patience during his absence while functioning as a vital component throughout the fantasy postseason.

2. Sam Darnold reemerged under center for the Jets in Week 6 after being sidelined since Week 1 (mono). That now provides us with a five-game sample from which to dissect various data since his return.

Jamison Crowder has collected the most targets during that sequence (34), followed by the resurgent Demaryius Thomas (30), and then Robby Anderson (29). Crowder has also captured 26 of those targets, while also generating 312 yards. Thomas is second in both categories (20 receptions/270 yards) while Anderson is a distant third (13 receptions/222 yards). Anderson’s numbers are particularly alarming as he has averaged just 2 receptions and 24.25 yards-per-game in four contests since his 5 catch/125-yard explosion in Week 6 against Dallas. While Anderson theoretically functions as New York’s downfield threat, the limited connections that he has attained with Darnold results in a completed air yards total (244) that barely exceeds Crowder’s (223).

There had been a legitimate reason to believe that the late-season chemistry Anderson had built with Darnold during 2018 would extend into the season. Anderson’s 9.75 target-per-game average in Weeks 14-17 was exceeded by just five other wide receivers last December. He also averaged 104 yards-per-game-during that span while also commandeering nine red zone targets. But Darnold has only launched one pass to Anderson inside the 20, while Crowder (7), and Thomas (4), have been targeted with greater frequency. Unfortunately for Anderson owners, there are no indications that another late-season resurgence is looming, as Crowder should remain Darnold’s most-targeted weapon during the remaining matchups.

3. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods both finished among the top 10 in fantasy scoring during 2018, while Cooper Kupp’s point-per-game pace would have placed him 11th if he had eluded multiple injuries.

But even though Kupp currently resides at WR7 in scoring, his shocking failure to register a reception in Week 10 has expanded the collection of concerned owners that have invested in any of the Ram's wide receivers.

While Cooks contends with his concussion issue, the output of this talented trio remains threatened by the emerging shortcomings of Jared Goff and an increasingly deficient offensive line. When the impact of Todd Gurley’s health concerns are blended into the equation, a level of uneasiness soars concerning the dependability of Kupp, Woods, and Cooks during the remaining weeks of the season.

Goff had built a completion percentage of 64% from Weeks 1-4, but that has dropped to 55.5% since Week 7. The disparity between Goff’s numbers at home versus the road include 62.3/58.8% completion percentages. His 32 touchdown passes last season are a distant memory, as he has only manufactured 11 this year. Six of his nine interceptions have occurred on the road, while his yardage drops from 313-per-game at the Memorial Coliseum to 272 per-game on the road.

The degeneration of Gurley's usage also accentuates the other problems that are crippling what was previously an elite Ram offense. His 53.5 yards-per-game average places him just 23rd among all backs, while he is also averaging just three targets per game. As Cooks owners await his return, Kupp owners can be optimistic that his efforts will remain bolstered by the league’s fourth-highest target-per-game average (10.1). Woods owners can be encouraged that he is a mainstay among the top five in snap counts, and will receive several enticing matchups during the fantasy playoffs

4. During the early portion of the regular season, Marquise Brown and Terry McLaurin were generating impressive numbers, while separating themselves from other members of the 2019 rookie class.

Brown entered Week 3 with the league’s third-highest yardage total (233), tied for 17^th in targets (18), and tied for 13^th in receptions (14). McLaurin began Week 7 as WR8, had risen to third in percentage share of team air yards (44.5), fifth overall in targeted air yards (16.4), and was 10^th in yards-per-target (10.7).

But as we enter Week 11 game action, several other first-year receivers have established themselves as viable starting options.

D.K. Metcalf now leads all rookies in targets (64), receptions (35), and receiving yardage (595). He is also pacing first-year receivers in air yards (813), receptions of 20+ yards (10), and is eighth overall in yards-per-reception (17). Since Week 6, he is tied for 13^th in targets (38/7.6 per game), 16^th in receptions (23), and 14^th in yardage (328). He has also averaged 4.6 receptions and 65.6 yards-per-game during that span. Metcalf also leads rookies in fantasy scoring (WR16) and will remain a viable starter that can boost weekly scoring throughout the fantasy playoffs.

Darius Slayton also demonstrated his big-play capabilities while establishing season highs in targets (14), receptions (10), and receiving yards (121) in Week 10. He is now tied with Metcalf, McLaurin and Mecole Hardman in touchdowns (5), leads all rookies in average depth of target (aDOT) (14.3) and is tied for ninth in targeted air yards (14.8). Since Week 5, he is second to Metcalf in targets (38), receptions (22), and receiving yards (299). Slayton’s big-play potential should offset the inconsistent yardage totals that will result from his usage.

5. Adam Thielen performed on 89.5% of Minnesota's offensive snaps from Week 1-6, while collecting a team-high 38 targets (6.3 per-game). But during the Vikings’ last four contests, Thielen's problematic hamstring limited his involvement to just nine snaps in Week 7, and seven snaps in Week 9.

He was also absent throughout all of the Vikings' matchups in Weeks 8 and 10, while collecting just three targets amid his condensed availability. During that four-game sequence, Stefon Diggs has been the primary recipient of opportunities, although that did not ignite a massive surge in his production.

Diggs averaged 12.4 yards-per-target from Weeks 1-6 while catching 23 of the 34 targets that were distributed by Kirk Cousins. Diggs also accumulated 420 yards, although 167 of those yards were assembled in Week 6. Since Thielen’s injury, Cousins has targeted Diggs 26 times (6.5 per-game). Diggs has averaged 13.0 yards-per-target, assembled 18 receptions, and generated 339 yards during that span.

But Diggs has been limited to 53 yards during the last two games combined. Among Minnesota's other wide receivers, Olabisi Johnson accrued 16 targets (4-per-game), and Laquon Treadwell was targeted 7 times (1.8 per-game). Dalvin Cook has accrued 20 targets during the Vikings last three games (6.6 per game). Kyle Rudolph had been averaging 1.8 targets per game from Weeks 1- 6, while Irv Smith's average was even more minuscule (1.3 per-game). However, Smith has averaged 5.3 per-game (21 targets), while Rudolph's opportunities have also risen dramatically (18 targets/4.8 per-game).

When Thielen resurfaces in the lineup, the target totals for Cook and both tight ends should decline to a level that is consistent with their previous averages. But his presence should be beneficial for Diggs, as opponents will be forced to deploy resources on both wideouts. That will expand Diggs' opportunities to supply owners with high-quality outings.

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