RADIO
Dynasty owners don’t play week to week, they play long term. However, dynasty owners still need to analyze different aspects of weekly matchups to determine the best time to sell or buy a player.
Make sure you don’t buy that hot rookie too soon and don’t sell the aging veteran too late. Each week, I will analyze different matchups across fantasy football with a dynasty frame of mind.
Let's take some time to see what matchups might pique the interest of dynasty league owners for Week 8 of the 2017 season. Here are some Week 8 matchup previews for dynasty league owners to monitor.
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Bears at Saints
A battle of rookie PPR running backs will have my eye come Sunday afternoon. Tarik Cohen wasn’t known by many coming out of the 2017 draft. Cohen had an average draft position of 34.90 in rookie only drafts and wasn’t considered a serious contender to take touches away from 2016 breakout star Jordan Howard. Cohen benefited from the awful QB play of Mike Glennon early on as the Bears were playing from behind quite often. Since they made the switch to Mitchell Trubisky though and have focused on keeping the ball in Howards hands, Cohen hasn’t offered much. During Weeks 1-4 when Glennon was the starting QB, Cohen averaged 13.5 touches per game for 82.75 yards. In Weeks 5-7 with Trubisky under center, Cohen has only averaged 7.6 touches per game for 42.66 yards. I find the splits somewhat odd as rookie QBs will look for safety valves such as a receiving back or a tight end.
Alvin Kamara saw a significant rise in his stock after the combine this offseason and was a popular pick by dynasty owners after the big name rookie running backs had left the board. Kamara was streaky to begin the year as he had some nice plays, but had to fight for touches in a backfield with Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram. In the four games that all three players were seeing action, Kamara averaged 8.75 touches and 57.5 total yards. Since Peterson was traded to the Cardinals though, Kamara has averaged 14 touches and 97 total yards per game. He is trending in the right direction and playing with a QB that loves to spread the ball around. Even more important than that, is the fact that Kamara is one play away from being the lead back for the Saints. Ingram has looked really good since the Peterson trade as well and has a lock on the lead back duties. If that were to change, Kamara would offer more value for standard leagues as well. Kamara currently checks in as the RB17 in PPR leagues and RB20 in standard leagues according to fantasydata.com. Not a huge difference, but as long as Ingram continues playing well, Kamara isn’t going to get many chances on the ground. Regardless, he is still a very exciting player and faces a Bears defense that gives up 30 points a game away from Soldier Field.
What to watch for: Kamara will continue to expand his role, but Cohen is the guy to buy. Kamara will cost too much right now but you may be able to find a Cohen owner who is giving up on him. He will become more valuable as Trubisky grows.
Cowboys at Redskins
Dez Bryant vs Josh Norman
So it won’t be Odell Beckham Jr. vs Josh Norman, but it will still be just as fun to watch. Dez Bryant continues to be a player owners are fascinated with. He’s a WR2 at best that people are willing to draft or pay for as a WR1. That’s just not that case anymore as Bryant has failed to record 1,000 receiving yards or double digit touchdowns since 2014. Bryant has a chance to reach double digit TDs this year with four in six games to date, but he doesn’t have 100 receiving yards in a game since Week 6 of 2016. The Cowboys offense hasn’t had an issue functioning at a high level without that kind of production from Bryant, but fantasy owners are paying for it.
Norman returns to action after sitting the last two weeks with broken ribs. Normally I would be a little worried about the return, but Norman was cleared Friday afternoon and won’t be a game time decision. The last time Norman and Bryant faced off, Bryant put together a five catch, 72-yard performance and had choice words for Norman after the game, calling him “soft” and “scared”. Norman has never been one to back down from a receiver and has been willing to talk a good amount as well, so you can expect some words and tough play Sunday. On top of that, the game is in Washington so you know the fans will have Normans back. Heading into Week 7 against the Eagles, the Redskins had only surrendered six passing touchdowns to five interceptions but lost the battle to Carson Wentz who had four touchdowns without Norman on the field.
What to watch for: Norman will want to get the best of Bryant this time around and will be fresh after being out the last two weeks. Seeing how Bryant performs against a top CB is crucial to his long term value. Receivers who only catch TDs have value, but not WR1 value. Dynasty owners should start selling Bryant to those who still have that kind of value on him.
Chargers at Patriots
Keenan Allen vs Patriots Secondary
When healthy, Keenan Allen has shown the ability to be a WR1/2. The key word is healthy though as injures have been the only thing to keep Allen from becoming a superstar at WR. He is healthy right now though and with a little luck, will be playing like a superstar soon. The single biggest factor that leads me to believe a breakout is still coming this season is Allen’s target share. Allen currently ranks third among WRs with 68 targets on the season and third for red zone targets on the season with eight. With that many targets, Allen will build on his 36 catches which only ranks 11th in the NFL right now. Allen has also become the most trusted option in the offense as he has 30 catches for 298 yards on third downs. There were some concerns over the return of Mike Williams and if he would cut into any of Allen’s targets, but since he came back, Allen has 15 targets while Tyrell Williams, Williams and Travis Benjamin have COMBINED for nine targets. Honestly, I should have saved this information for #TrendingNow and included Allen in that article, but this has the making of a big day for Allen and the Chargers offense.
I’m throwing last week out the window. I don’t care that the Falcons only came up with seven points against one of the worst statistical defenses or that Matt Ryan is the first QB this season not to throw for 300 yards against them. The Patriots defense overachieved last weekend. The Falcons offense is a train wreck right now while the Chargers have been playing better with every week. A couple of key personnel issues to point out for the Patriots though. Don’t’a Hightower will miss the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. There was a noticeable difference in the Patriots defense when Hightower was not out there in Week 2 and 3 and you will probably see it again this week. It is also interesting to note that Eric Rowe will miss this week and typically covers players in the slot (where Allen takes a large majority of his snaps) and will need to count on someone else. The Patriots have given up 2262 receiving yards this year which is good for 32nd in the league. Expect that trend to continue against a hot Chargers team.
What to watch for: Don’t trust Allen yet? Well start. You can’t plan for injuries; they happen to anyone at any time. If you skipped on Allen to start 2017 because of his injury history, spend the next 24 hours trying to trade for him before this game kicks off.
