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Expert Week 5 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD prop. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
Welcome to Touchdown Scorer Props, Week 5 edition. This year, the first weekend in October brings with it the first wave of bye weeks for Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. The injury bug hit the NFL hard last week, and in Week 5, we’ll see teams including the Ravens, Giants, 49ers, and Dolphins suiting up without key star players. Expect a higher volatility Anytime TD market this weekend as a result.
Last week, our Anytime TD picks aced the test, with five of six picks cashing for a collective +11.6 unit return (one unit bets). We hope you benefited. We’ll continue bringing that winning energy this week.
Each week, this column aims to pinpoint positive expected value touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Picks
George Pickens, WR - Dallas Cowboys (+110)
Pickens has been worth every penny for the Cowboys, stepping in as the X receiver in CeeDee Lamb’s absence. He has been on a tear the last three games, catching four touchdowns. He has 29 targets and 268 receiving yards over that span and has shown tremendous comfort on both short and deep routes.
The Cowboys travel to MetLife this week to take on the Jets, who are the sixth-best matchup for receivers this week, according to PFF. Despite the heavy touchdown count to start the season, Pickens is actually in line with his average expected touchdown rate; he ranks sixth among all skill position players in that stat per Fantasy Points.
With a 47.5-point over/under, Vegas expects this to be a slightly above-average game in scoring. With two teams that are extremely susceptible to the pass, there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Pickens is a better bet to score in his fourth straight game than his 47.6% implied probability would indicate.
GEORGE PICKENS PUTTING THE TEAM ON HIS BACKpic.twitter.com/LHxcsvHyXN https://t.co/B3kz88kzIp
— PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2025
J.K. Dobbins, RB - Denver Broncos (+145)
Dobbins has been the unquestioned starter for the Broncos to start the season. He has tallied 57 rushes and seven targets in his four games. He has been productive with his touches, scoring three touchdowns and averaging 5.7 yards per attempt so far this season.
Dobbins has a matchup with the Eagles on Sunday, who are a less formidable opponent than the media would have you think thus far in 2025. Philadelphia ranks 30th in rush defense success rate. Jalen Carter, the heart of their front seven, has not looked right since the coin toss on opening night and has yet to find his footing this season. The Eagles rank in the bottom 10 in yards per attempt allowed and first downs given up on the ground.
Despite these indicators, the Eagles have still only given up three rushing touchdowns this season. The Broncos are in a great position to change that with an offensive line that should be up to the challenge this week. Dobbins is also the clear back to target for Denver, collecting nine red zone carries to R.J. Harvey’s three in four games this year. Dobbins is a great bet to score on Sunday.
Garrett Wilson, RB - New York Jets (+145)
Garrett Wilson has been as advertised and more for the Jets to start 2025, collecting 27 passes on 38 targets for 311 yards and three touchdowns in his four games. The 25-year-old has been able to maintain steady production despite instability behind center, with Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor both making starts already due to a Week 2 Fields injury.
Wilson is a great bet for another touchdown this week against the Cowboys, who have been a goldmine for opposing fantasy receivers this year. Dallas has given up 42 half-PPR fantasy points per week to opposing receivers, almost 8 points more than the next closest team (the Giants).
Last week, the Cowboys gave up three touchdowns to WR Romeo Doubs, and gave up over 100 yards and at least one touchdown to receivers Luther Burden III and Malik Nabers in the preceding weeks. With Fields back practicing, expect him to look for Wilson early and often in a matchup of weak pass defenses.
Jets HC Aaron Glenn on Garrett Wilson, via @NYJetsTFMedia:
"The plays that he can make, the way he comes down with 50/50 balls... He's amazing to watch. He wants the ball and he wants to win. I love everything about him."
Currently the WR5 in PPR formats, sky's the limit 🚀 pic.twitter.com/jMZeDsOc8U
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 2, 2025
Quinshon Judkins, RB - Cleveland Browns (+150)
Judkins has been making the most of his lead-back role since making his NFL debut in Week 2. The rookie has one touchdown and at least 18 carries in each of his last two contests and has looked sharp as the team’s primary rusher. The volume has landed Judkins in the top-10 in expected touchdowns per game according to Fantasy Points.
This week, the Browns turn to fellow rookie QB Dillon Gabriel under center, which should have Cleveland leaning even more heavily on the run to avoid overloading the rookie quarterback. While Minnesota is known for a hard-nose, blitz-heavy defense with DC Brian Flores at the helm, they have been vulnerable to the run to start the year. The Vikings rank as the sixth-worst pass defense by DVOA through four games.
Expect another 18+ touches for Judkins in this one, who should be trusted to carry the load in the red zone, especially.
Jaxson Dart, QB - New York Giants (+165)
Dart was a spark of electricity for Brian Daboll and the Giants last week, finishing every run hard and willing New York to a victory against the Chargers. Dart tallied 10 rushes in that contest for 54 yards and a touchdown. The physical style of running he became known for in college was on full display last week, and it’s unlikely he will move away from that this week in the team’s first full game since losing star WR Nabers to a tragic knee injury last week.
The Saints are third-worst in the NFL in points against and have already had trouble with running quarterbacks this season. They gave up 45 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to Josh Allen last week, while also giving up 38 yards on the ground to QB Kyler Murray in Week 1. New Orleans has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks thus far.
With only one game of tape on Dart, the Giants are likely to continue to leverage his legs to move the ball as they redefine their offensive identity without Nabers for the rest of this season.
Juwan Johnson, TE - New Orleans Saints (+230)
Johnson has been a happy surprise this year for the lowly Saints. The 29-year-old TE ranks in the top three at the position in targets, receptions, and red zone targets. The attention has yet to turn into touchdown production, however, as Johnson has only tallied one touchdown to date (Week 2 against the 49ers).
Still, the healthy volume (particularly in the red zone) offers a great indicator that the yardage and touchdown results are coming for Johnson. It could likely happen as soon as this week at home against the Giants. New York has given up an average of 4.5 catches to opposing leading TEs in their four games. They ceded 12 targets, nine catches, and 78 yards to Jake Ferguson in Week 2.
Against a middle-of-the-road defense, look for Spencer Rattler to find one of his most dependable targets down the middle in Johnson this week, possibly for a long score. Kendre Miller is also an interesting bet for the Saints in this game at +350.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Pick
Michael Pittman Jr., WR - Indianapolis Colts (+1100)
I’m targeting the Colts for the first touchdown scorer this week. They have a 29% first-quarter scoring rate in their last three games, a top-six mark across the league, and have a juicy matchup with the Raiders this Sunday. The Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Bettors looking to pivot from Jonathan Taylor, who is +400 and a great bet for first touchdown scorer, should consider Pittman Jr. at considerably more favorable odds. He leads the Colts' receiving room in overall targets and red zone targets. He was the only Colts receiver targeted more than once on their opening drive last week.
Indy will look to bounce back from a heartbreaking loss last week by setting the tone on their opening drive to prove their 3-0 start wasn’t a fluke. Pittman Jr. is a great long shot bet for first touchdown scorer in this game.
