RADIO
Week 4 of the NFL season was another wild one. It was filled with a couple of short-term injuries that make you feel for players and worry for your fantasy teams (Tua Tagovailoa and Jonathan Taylor), it had a long-term injury that hurt particularly badly (Javonte Williams), and it had a QB change (Kenny Pickett is the starter in Pittsburgh) that could completely change fantasy fortunes in every Steelers game this year… on both sides. Let’s briefly discuss each of these changes, and the impact they could have on IDP leagues.
Miami’s loss of Tua may be the bump with the least impact in IDP. Without Tua on Thursday, the only noticeable changes were an uptick in Tyreek Hill’s volume and a slight decrease in deep balls. If that keeps up, it could lead to more IDP friendly shadow situations, but fewer sloppy picks. Meanwhile, the impact of injuries to Williams and Taylor are more obvious. Denver and Indy should both throw more with their leading rushers out, leading to increased volume for opposing DBs, more plays run, and increased turnovers.
Beyond those injuries, this week's major news was Pittsburgh unleashing their dynamic duo, "The Pickers." As we previously predicted, the promotion of Kenny Pickett will lead to a significant uptick in George Pickensand more opportunities for opposing defenders. As Pickett takes risks Trubisky wouldn't, he will lean on the deep threat he knows (Pickens) and force more turnover worthy plays. As a result, we are elevating Pittsburgh's opposing secondaries these next few weeks… and with that, let’s get to it!
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Devin Lloyd is a Season Long LB1
At this point, Devin Lloyd is a painfully obvious option, but let's take a moment to appreciate how tremendous he has been at the outset of his rookie season. One big prediction we had this offseason was that Lloyd would knock teammate Foyesade Oluokun into the second tier of fantasy linebackers. We didn't anticipate Lloyd would overtake Oluokun in our rankings this quickly, though.
As of this writing, Lloyd sits tied for eighth in the NFL in total tackles and second in PDs, and he’s first amongst LBs in interceptions. His usage rate is also elite (100% of defensive snaps the past three weeks), and there’s a distinct possibility he is just scratching the surface of his talent. While the passing stats are bound to regress, this former Ute’s production isn’t necessarily an outlier since he was always a plus in coverage at Utah.
Given his pedigree as a first-round draft pick, his plus tackling and run defense, and his coverage skills, Lloyd is a prime candidate to continue his elite fantasy production for years to come. We initially undersold the immediate impact he could have due to the depth Jacksonville has at linebacker, but there’s no doubt this rookie is the Jaguars defender we want on our rosters.
Kyle Hamilton is NOT Rosterable Right Now
As a big Kyle Hamilton fan, it hurts to admit, but the Ravens aren't using him as we had hoped. Entering the season, we truly believed Hamilton would be heavily involved against the run and the pass, putting up DB1 caliber stats with elite usage. However, that usage hasn’t panned out, despite Hamilton improving over the past three games.
The Notre Dame product started the year rough, seeing a season-high 42 defensive snaps while missing two tackles and allowing a 100% completion rate. Hamilton has since improved, earning a positive grade from PFF in all categories since that Week 1 debacle. The problem is the Ravens aren't using Hamilton in run defense (just 14 snaps in obvious rushing situations), and they've limited him to 24% and 27% of their defensive snaps in the past two games.
Data suggests the Ravens are more comfortable deploying Chuck Clark as their second safety at this point, and all indications are they are digging further into that belief. There is no timetable for when Hamilton will see more opportunities, though it does feel inevitable given his talent and the capital invested in him. While he is still a good buy-low option in dynasty formats and a solid stash in deeper leagues, you can't realistically roster him in anything else.
Casual Scoring Streamers and Fades for This Week
Stream: Odafe Oweh, DL/LB, Baltimore Ravens
The book on Oweh coming out of Penn State was he had tremendous tools, but trouble closing. That's proven to be true in his short time as a pro. While the former Nittany Lion has a respectable but not elite 66 pressures in his first 19 games, he has just six sacks and seven TFLs. For context, this season Nick Bosa is on pace to match Oweh's career pressure total by Week 9, and he's already tied Oweh's career sack total… in just four games.
With that said, Oweh is a physically gifted pass rusher who is generating more pressure this year than he did as a rookie. There is a good chance Oweh can convert pressures into sacks at a higher rate this week, thanks to a Bengals line that allows the fourth most sacks and the sixth highest Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL. Most of us will continue elevating pass rushers against the Bengals until their pass blocking improves or they start throwing less. Oweh is the beneficiary of that doubt this week.
Stream: Drue Tranquill, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Tranquill is coming off two straight games with double-digit tackles, and now he gets the run-oriented Cleveland Browns offense. We elevated Atlanta's linebackers against Cleveland last week, and it worked out. We expect Tranquill to have a good shot at another double-digit tackle game, thanks to a Browns offense that loves to run the ball (the fourth highest rate in the NFL) and pepper the short area of the field with easy throws.
Fade: Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, DBs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Sunday, the Falcons appeared to give up on their passing game entirely, running the ball 16 straight times at one point. Worse, Tom Brady missed practice with various injuries and is currently questionable. Those factors could convalesce into a boring game this coming weekend if Brady doesn't play.
Ultimately, we expect Brady to play against Atlanta, and we don't expect the score to be close. Odds strongly favor the Falcons having to throw the ball more than the 19 times they did last week to keep up with Tampa. However, we also expect Arthur Smith will at least try to stick to his run-heavy script early, given his lack of interest in Kyle Pitts and trust in Marcus Mariota. A run-heavy approach could offer few opportunities for Tampa's corners.
Fade: Shaquille Leonard, LB, Indianapolis Colts
By no means are we completely writing Leonard off. When he's healthy, he's still one of the best and most athletic tacklers in the game, and there's hope that his poor coverage in limited snaps this past weekend was simply rust. However, managers in shallow redraft leagues must be growing weary of rostering Leonard and his frequent ailments.
Leonard is out of commission this week with a concussion and a broken nose. He also missed the first three games this season coming off a back injury that plagued him for most of 2021. All these ailments, coupled with a growing pool of multi-skilled fantasy LBs, are enough to wonder how long you can carry Leonard on your bench when healthier and more reliable options are still out there.
We are still keeping Leonard in our IR spot if he's eligible and saving him in dynasty leagues if we can. However, if you play in a casual IDP league that fields just one or two LBs each week and there's someone on waivers that can help you now, Leonard is droppable… which is something we never thought we would say this early in his illustrious career.
Premium Scoring & Deep League Streamers and Fades for This Week
Stream: Jourdan Lewis & the ENTIRE Dallas Cowboys Secondary
The Rams cannot establish the run; thus they are second in the NFL in pass frequency. Matthew Stafford also leads the NFL in interceptions for the straight second year, and something seems visibly off about his decision-making and ball placement (elbow?). So, it’s no wonder we like all members of the Cowboys’ secondary this week, on top of the typical “stream any nickel back against Cooper Kupp” approach.
Stream: Denico Autry, DL, Tennessee Titans
Autry sits tied for tenth in the NFL in quarterback pressures this year, and he faces a Washington offense that cannot protect its turnover-prone quarterback. Washington has given up 17 sacks so far, ranks third worst in Adjusted Sack Rate, and Carson Wentz has taken a sack on nearly 10% of his dropbacks over the past two seasons.
Wentz currently leads all NFL passers in sacks taken, he sits third in yards lost on sacks, and the Commanders are throwing the ball nearly 66% of the time. If you’re looking for a streaming edge rusher available in 99.6% of IDP leagues, Autry could be your guy this week.
Stream in Very Deep Leagues: Drake Jackson, DL, San Francisco 49ers
Drake Jackson is another name to remember if you're in a deep IDP league and need an extra deep cut to get it done. There's not a lot in the box score for Jackson right now, be it in terms of stats or playing time. However, the rookie is very popular in San Francisco and could see increased “learning” snaps if the 49ers get out to a big lead early against Carolina.
If Jackson does see increased snaps in the second half of this one, the long-limbed Trojan could register at least one sack and a PD. Remember that Baker Mayfield had nine passes batted passes at the line last week, while the Panthers are fifth worst in Adjusted Sack Rate and allow a quarterback pressure on 25% of pass plays. This blocking unit is rough, as is the entire offense under Mayfield and Ben McAdoo. Consider Jackson a boom-or-bust DL4 option this week.
Fade: The Eagles Secondary in Premium/Rotoballer Scoring
Two starters in Philly's secondary are either not practicing (Avonte Maddox) or limited (Darius Slay). They also go up against an Arizona passing attack that throws a surprisingly low number of interceptions, given their passing volume.
Despite attempting 654 pass attempts over 21 regular season games the past two years, Kyler Murray has tossed just 12 picks in that time. According to Pro Football Reference, his "On Target Percentage" also hovers around 79%, and his "Bad Decision Metric" averages nearly 14%, which is better than Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers during that span. Those stats strongly suggest that big play-dependent fantasy corners face low odds against the Cardinals.
Defensive Tackles to Consider for This Week
Jordan Elliott, DT, Cleveland Browns
A talented but raw prospect coming out of Missouri, Elliott played a career-high 91% of Cleveland’s defensive snaps last week and earned a sack. Now he is going up against a set of Chargers guards who have allowed a whopping 24 quarterback pressures between them. The Chargers’ line also sits second worst in the NFL in busted run plays, with a 27% stuff percentage. While Corey Linsley is back to alleviate some concerns, the matchup is strong enough to elevate Elliott.
Derrick Brown, DT, Carolina Panthers
Available in 99.1% of IDP leagues, Brown is a former top-ten pick in the NFL Draft who regularly gets his hands up on passing downs and anchors against the run. This Sunday, he faces a 49ers offense that runs the ball 50.29% of the time, gets its runs stuffed at a 22% rate (ninth worst in the NFL), and Jimmy Garoppolo has always struggled with batted passes at the line. Brown is a good bet to get at least one TFL and a PD this week.
Cornerbacks to Consider for This Week
Tariq Woolen, CB, Seattle Seahawks
Woolen was a raw but incredibly gifted corner coming out of UTSA this offseason, and he ranked very highly on our draft board before falling to Seattle in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. He has elite speed, good height, and tremendous length, but he lacks experience as a converted wide receiver with just 2.5 years as a full-time corner. That experience hurt his draft stock and has encouraged offenses to target him more often.
The Seahawks rookie has come on strong these past two games, with an interception in each and nine total tackles. He now has a matchup against a Saints offense that sports a very speedy rookie receiver Woolen matches up with perfectly. While Pete Carroll won’t likely use Woolen in shadow coverage, it'd be a mistake not to regularly pit him against Chris Olave. Woolen is rostered in just 1.1% of IDP leagues but is a viable CB starter this week.
Cameron Sutton, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rostered in less than 1% of IDP leagues, Sutton is on the field nearly every snap for the Steelers. In four games, he has two forced turnovers, at least one PD in every game, and now he is going against a Bills offense that throws the ball 65% of the time. The matchup and the player both merit streaming as a fantasy CB.
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