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Welcome back RotoBallers to another week of my IDP waiver wire recommendations for fantasy football leagues and Week 12 of the NFL season!
For those who are not familiar, every week I provide you with my IDP waiver wire pickups and analysis, to try and help bolster your fantasy football rosters for the weeks ahead.
We are now onto our second week of pre-season IDP review. We already addressed our pre-season picks for IDP Rookies and DB Sleepers last week. Today we are on to a review of our pre-season LB Sleepers. Very exciting for my four avid readers... let's get to it!
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Pre-Season LB Sleeper Review
1. Anthony Walker, LB, Indianapolis Colts
The idea behind Walker as a sleeper this year was two-fold. First, he had independent value as a player who has had two 100-tackle seasons out of his three pro tours and as a player who occasionally flashed as a pass rusher. The second reason we were high on Walker was the possibility he could see an increase in his production with the addition of a healthy Deforest Buckner.
So far, Walker has been a real hit-or-miss fantasy prospect. While he has registered at least four quality fantasy starts this season, he has also seen his playing time dip as Bobby Okereke’s role in this defense has increased. Over the past four weeks, Okereke has seen more snaps than Walker, and he looks to have a solid hold on that playing time now. Walker's stock is dipping now, and he should be rostered in only Deep Defense leagues.
Hit or Miss: Trending Towards a Miss
2. Dre Greenlaw, LB, San Francisco 49ers
We said that Greenlaw’s fantasy stock would depend on how much playing time Kwon Alexander got, and that has proven entirely right. In the five games that Greenlaw has gotten a vast majority of the nickel work on this defense (which we said he needed to succeed), the Arkansas product is averaging over eight tackles per game. That is a lovely floor in tackle premium leagues and makes him a comfortable LB2 candidate this season and next in those types of leagues.
Hit or Miss: Hit
3. Micah Kiser, LB, Los Angeles Rams
Kiser was easily outside the top-25 LB ranks on many sites going into this season, but we had him as a high probability sleeper. We said he could step into the role Corey Littleton vacated and possibly thrive as a fantasy asset.
For the most part, our prediction on Kiser has paid off. While he has been inconsistent and lacked in the big play department, he is averaging a solid 8.6 tackles per game. He also has three double-digit tackle games this year, proving a relatively high ceiling in tackle-premium scoring.
Hit or Miss: Hit
4. Logan Wilson, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
As we already discussed in our Rookie Review, we were high on Wilson because the Bengals invested valuable draft capital in him and because Wilson was too talented not to start for Cincy early this year. Unfortunately, the latter part of that statement hasn't proven entirely true so far.
Despite playing on a relatively suspect Bengals linebacker unit, Wilson has yet to see his playing time spike over 60% of his team's snaps this year. That's a disappointing total that will keep the rookie from being a fantasy asset as long as it continues. While Wilson has shown flashes, particularly in coverage, it doesn't look like he will be a viable fantasy asset until 2021, unless something changes drastically.
Hit or Miss: Miss
5. Zack Baun, LB, New Orleans Saints
Baun is a hard pick for us to evaluate because we said he was a dynasty sleeper ONLY. He was always going to be a long-term prospect, and he had little prospective value for the 2020 season as a fantasy asset.
Baun has the sort of inherent talent that makes me think he could be a good one someday, but the addition of Kwon Alexander muddies the waters a bit. Alexander is a highly paid and athletic linebacker who can do a lot of what Baun does best. The Saints' acquisition of Alexander could signal that Baun (or possibly Demario Davis) isn’t in the team’s long-term plans. He is still worth stashing in deeper dynasty leagues, but be aware there is no clear path for serious playing time in view.
Hit or Miss: Too Early to Call
IDP Settings
If you skipped my weekly rant, as many of you do, then you made a wise choice! You skipped the ramblings of a madman and now get to drink the nectars of his sweet, sweet brain! And you’ll likely notice that those nectars taste an awful lot like our waiver rankings for this week!
As a reminder, we will use the following IDP designations/league settings for our FAAB recommendations:
- Standard Scoring Leagues: This system usually rewards 1-point per tackle, 3-points per sack, 4-points per turnover, and sometimes offers 2-points for a tackle for loss (TFL) or pass deflection (PD). Standard leagues also usually only start one DL, LB, and DB, respectively. You will always prioritize your FAAB budget towards offensive players in Standard Scoring IDP leagues, though you shouldn't underestimate the value of adding a great defender in them.
- Defense Premium Leagues: Defense Premium leagues tend to try to make defensive players worth as much as offensive players. Commissioners often accomplish this by rewarding 2-points per tackle, 3-points for TFL or PDs, 4-points per sack, and 6-points per turnover. In these leagues, you don't necessarily prioritize offensive players on waivers. While it is a case-by-case analysis, defenders in these leagues can often be worth as much as most offensive waiver additions.
- Deep Defense Leagues: These are leagues that have you start a full defense, or require you to start CBs and DTs, or they are leagues so deep (think 16 team leagues) that at least 32 players at each position (DL, LB, and DB) start every week.
- Dynasty Leagues: This is self-explanatory to most. Dynasty leagues are those in which every player you draft/add is on your team until you trade or release him.
Now that we have that explanation out of the way, let's get to this week's top adds! Remember that we will only address defenders who are rostered in less than 30% of IDP leagues on ESPN, Yahoo, or other prominent sites. We will also do our best to avoid obvious additions. While players like Myles Garrett are somehow rostered in only 31% of ESPN IDP leagues, we assume that anyone reading this material knows to add Garrett if they can.
IDP Waiver Adds of the Week
1. Kamren Curl, DB, Washington Football Team
Curl was our DB Streamer of the Week last week, and if you started him, you were rewarded with nine tackles. Over his past three games, Curl has totaled 30 tackles and two sacks. He is popping on film, as well as in the stat sheets, too.
The former Arkansas Razorback is our top IDP waiver priority of the week, and he is rostered in just 10% of all IDP leagues, so most of you can still get him. Make a move to get him, and know he has a solid schedule going forward. The only knock on Curl is the possibility his missed tackles and the return of Landon Collins could limit his long-term value.
- Standard FAAB: 2%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 3%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 4%
- Dynasty FAAB: 2%
2. Trey Hendrickson, DL, New Orleans Saints
I know this is getting old, but Hendrickson is rostered in less than 3% of IDP leagues right now. That’s despite the fact he is currently tied for the NFL lead in sacks. It’s pretty simple: the NFL sack leader should be rostered in 100% of IDP leagues. Do it!
- Standard FAAB: 2%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 1%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
- Dynasty FAAB: 1%
3. Kyle Dugger, DB, New England Patriots
We told you to add Dugger last week, and most didn’t. Despite seeing his playing time stay above the 70% threshold, and despite getting regular tackles and snaps at the LB position while qualifying as a DB, Dugger is rostered in less than 2% of IDP leagues. He should be rostered in all leagues with 12-teams or more, and there is a strong argument that he is a top-12 fantasy DB the rest of this season. As long as he keeps getting these snaps at LB, Dugger belongs in lineups.
- Standard FAAB: 1%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 2%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: 2%
4. Montez Sweat, DL, Washington Football Team
Many of you may think Sweat shouldn't qualify for this article. He has six sacks this year, a first-round NFL Draft selection in 2019, and he plays on a great defensive line. He is a classic big name who must be rostered in more than 50% of Fantasy leagues, right?
Wrong.
Sweat is currently rostered in fewer IDP leagues than the injured and ineffective Jadeveon Clowney and Danielle Hunter (who is out for the season). While he is a bit boom-or-bust, many fantasy-relevant DLs are. He should be rostered in more than 12% of IDP leagues right now, which he isn't. Add him in all 12-team leagues, or deeper.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Defense Premium FAAB: 2%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: 1%
5. Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals
We told you in our ranks last week that Simmons could pop if he got the proper usage. We also told you that there were rumors out of Arizona that he could finally get that proper usage. For at least one week, he did see a majority of his team’s snaps, and he delivered.
In just 68% of their snaps against Seattle, Simmons flashed the elite potential that had him as a top-ten pick in this year’s NFL Draft. He grabbed ten tackles, two TFLs, and a sack. It was terrific production, and enough to make all of us wonder why he wasn’t getting more playing time earlier.
While we cannot predict what the Arizona staff will do with Simmons going forward, the rookie did nothing but give them reasons to play him this past week. In a deep LB unit, Simmons is the most gifted player of a talented crop. If he can continue to get the snaps he should, Simmons could be a top-12 starter moving forward. Temper your spending on him because of the risk he could be capped in the snaps department, but add him in almost all formats based on his immense ceiling.
- Standard FAAB: 1%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 3%
- Deep Defense FAAB: 3%
- Dynasty FAAB: 4%
6. T.J. Edwards, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Rostered in less than 10% of IDP leagues, Edwards has been on a tear over the past three weeks. Since Nathan Gerry went down in Week 7, Edwards has seen his playing time steadily rise above the 75% threshold. During that time, Edwards has been averaging ten tackles per game.
While Edwards' value could dip back down once Gerry comes back from injury, there is a chance that Edwards keeps the starting job even then. Pro Football Focus has graded Edwards better than Gerry in just about every facet of the game so far. While Edwards isn't exceptionally gifted in coverage, he seems an improvement over Gerry on film. If you play in deeper leagues, Edwards is worth a short-term addition, and he could prove to be a solid long-term one as well.
- Standard FAAB: Wait
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Dynasty FAAB: Wait
7. Jordan Fuller, DB, Los Angeles Rams
You have seen this name in our spaces before, primarily as the guy who played Taylor Rapp into relative obscurity. Fuller is proving himself to be an exciting fantasy asset in his own right, however. Consider that in five games played, Fuller has four quality starts. That means that Fuller has scored eight or more fantasy points under our Standard Scoring formula in four of his five starts. That's good production for a fantasy DB.
While there is still the definite possibility that Rapp returns from injury and reclaims his starting job from Fuller at some point, we haven’t seen much indication that will happen yet. Fuller beat Rapp in camp and continues to get serious playing time, with which he is making an excellent argument for being a full-time starter.
- Standard Defense FAAB: Wait
- Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
- Defense Premium FAAB: 1%
8. Robert Spillane, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
We have mentioned Spillane several times in this space, and yet he remains rostered in fewer leagues than players who haven't taken a snap all season (C.J. Mosley). Spillane hasn't been filling up the box score or proving to be an elite fantasy addition in most formats, but he deserves to be rostered in all Deep Defense formats. He is consistently getting a high snap percentage despite Avery Williamson joining the roster (as we cautioned could happen) and can get a sack here and there. He should be rostered in Deep Defense leagues only right now, but he could surprise as he acclimates to being a starter.
- Deep Defense FAAB: 1%
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