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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/4/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jordan Walker, Brice Turang, and others!
This article comes with a thicker wallet from Sunday, but a heavy heart as the news of John Sterling's passing hit while this article was being written. RIP to an absolute legend, whose calls were legendary no matter what team you root for. I hope the Yankees give him a wonderful tribute tonight (or soon).
The schedule shift over on this Monday, and the Mets will go to Coors Field even though that game is no longer on the main slate for DFS players. Weather is looking favorable for today's slate of games, and a lot of the stadiums have winds blowing out as well. Wrigley is Wrigley-ing again, and the Cubs have an IRT well over seven runs on this slate (spoiler alert - they'll be mentioned in this article).
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, May 4, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/4/2026)
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+245 BetMGM)
The Yankees were in the news yesterday, as Anthony Volpe's demotion to the minors following his rehab sent ripples of debate across social media. Ben Rice also left with a hand injury, and we Yankee fans held our collective breath waiting for news that it wasn't severe. Thankfully, he's day-to-day. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge just continued to do what he does, mashing his 13th home run (now tied for the MLB lead) en route to an 11-3 Yanks win.
ALL RISE!
Aaron Judge is now tied for the MLB lead with HR No. 13 👨⚖️ pic.twitter.com/7KZ3cE3Rx5
— MLB (@MLB) May 3, 2026
Shane Baz is a reverse-split pitcher by trade, allowing 1.70 HR/9 in 2025 while also striking out 7% less batters from the right side. He had a 5.12 FIP against righties as opposed to a 3.87 against lefties, and he's off to a slow start in 2026 with a 1.47 WHIP and .192 ISO allowed.
Judge can't possibly homer EVERY day (right??), but he's a solid bet to repeat again today. The Captain is barreling righties for a 24.6% mark this year and has a .427 wOBA and .280 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. Temps are supposed to be in the upper 60s this evening at Yankee Stadium, with winds blowing out to left-center at 10-12 MPH.
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 BetMGM)
Ah, the Mets. They can finally brag that they won a series after taking two out of three games from the equally-lowly Angels. New York will now travel to Coors Field to try and claw their way back to respectability, and Colorado is a great venue to get the bats to wake up.
Tomoyuki Sugano was a launching pad last season, allowing 33 homers, 1.89 HR/9 and a 15.6% HR/FB rate while only striking out 16% of batters. This isn't a recipe for success, and the move to Colorado is not doing him any favors as his 2.84 ERA is masked by a 5.34 xERA.
Juan Soto is the play from the Mets to target, even though he only has three homers in his sophomore campaign with New York. Soto had a 20.8% barrel rate last season against righties and is following it up with a 25.7% mark this year. Soto went 0-5 yesterday, but has generally been productive since returning from injury, and the matchup and park factor couldn't be better. He's best paired with someone else to maximize the odds (perhaps another Met?), but I like +280 for him on BetMGM today.
