X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Velocity Gain: How Does It Affect Starting Pitchers?

By Mwinog2777 (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Kyle Braver analyzes the affect of velocity gain on an MLB starting pitcher's (SP) effectiveness for fantasy baseball. Identify waiver wire sleepers with this analysis.

Last week I took a look at players who've experienced a marked decline in fastball velocity between this season and the last. Today I'll be doing the reverse, breaking down which players have opened the year throwing harder than in seasons past, and examining the fantasy implications of this change if any.

 

Velocity Gain Impact for Fantasy Baseball

Velocity is only one part of a pitcher's game of course, so I'll be taking a look at these guys holistically, examining what the new overall package that they offer means for fantasy owners going forward and if we can maybe uncover some sleepers off the waiver wire depending on league format. Unsurprisingly there are far fewer players with velocity gains than losses, but there are still a handful of players worth looking at, players who are throwing the ball more than half a mile faster this year than last. I've limited my search to the admittedly somewhat arbitrary 0.5 mph mark because beneath that I don't see any evidence that there's an appreciable link between the minute velocity gain and performance.

 

Pitchers With Velocity Gains in 2014

 

Tyler Skaggs

2013/2014 Velocity: 89.5/91.8 (gain of 2.3 mph)

2013/2014 BB%, K%, LD%: 8.8/6.2, 21.2/15.6, 19.8/17.5

2013/2014 ERA, FIP: 5.12/4.53, 4.86/3.87

By Not That Bob James on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Skaggs is a great example of why velocity readings don't tell you the whole story about a pitcher. On one hand, I'm very confident that the boost to his fastball has been instrumental to the rebirth of his career as a starter with the Angels. There's a huge difference between a sub 90 mph fastball and one bordering on 92 mph. Hitters have a harder time making solid contact against faster fastballs, and sure enough with Skaggs we see a decrease in solid contact allowed through the lens of his LD rate.

What's holding him back however from being anything more than just a guy to round out a rotation with is his strikeouts. Despite his good stuff, he's seen his strikeout rate plummet this season, and until he shows signs of getting back those swings and misses his game has been missing this season, he's not capable of being more than a spot starter against bottom 10 offenses for fantasy purposes. Keep an eye on this guy tho, he's just a handful of strikeouts away from a big jump forward.

 

Ian Kennedy

2013/2014 Velocity: 90.1/91.7 (gain of 1.6 mph)

2013/2014 BB%, K%, LD%: 9.2/5.3, 20.5/26.4, 23.3/21.3

2013/2014 ERA, FIP: 4.91/3.60, 4.59/2.55

By Mwinog2777 (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

I'll be the first to say that you need to take the FIP statistic with a large grain of salt, but it is very useful for getting a broad look at a guy's performance, and the improvement in Kennedy's performance has been staggering this season. To put what a 2.55 FIP means into context, this season Johnny Cueto has a 2.98 FIP, Max Scherzer has a 2.77 FIP, and Yu Darvish has a 2.40 FIP. Now that doesn't mean Kennedy is a better pitcher than any of those guys, but it should give you some sense of just how many things Kennedy has been doing right this year. That success honestly shouldn't surprise you that much. This is a pitcher who threw 222.0 innings with a 2.88 ERA as recently as 2011 after all. The improved fastball has been a big part of Kennedy's improvement this season.

Going from being in danger of dropping beneath 90 mph to comfortably throwing 91-92 mph is a big, big couple miles per hour for a pitcher. He's taken full advantage of the extra weapon his velocity has given him, driving up his strikeout rate, improving his command, and limiting hard contact by opposing batters. Considering what Kennedy has accomplished so far, he's been downright unlucky from the perspective of ERA. When you factor in the bit about him pitching half his games at PETCO, I'd look to Ian Kennedy as a sneaky stash if you need pitching help. There are real reasons to think this guy could have a big year this year if he can keep up what he's currently doing.

 

Garrett Richards

2013/2014 Velocity: 94.5/96.0 (gain of 1.5 mph)

2013/2014 BB%, K%, LD%: 7.1/9.6, 16.3/25.8, 19.1/22.6

2013/2014 ERA, FIP: 4.16/2.42, 3.66/2.46

rotoballer-fantasy-baseball-advice-garrett-richards

Garret Richards has been an absolute revelation for the for the Angel's pitching staff this season. 39 of his 52 innings so far this season have come on the road and in them he's pitched to a 1.38 ERA with 40 strikeouts and only 16 walks. For a pitcher with an ERA north of 4.00 last season that's incredible. When you take into account the fact that Richards has made these improvements while adjusting to his conversion from a reliever into a starter, a process that usually decreases fastball velocity and increases ERA, it's downright remarkable.

He's challenging hitters better this year, using his slider and curveball more effectively, and I truly do believe that his improved fastball is a big part of this. The fastball is the foundation of a pitcher's game. It sets up the rest of a pitcher's pitches and an improvement to it has a cascading affect to all the rest of a guy's stuff. In Richard's case it's been a very positive one. With the way he's been pitching I'd start him on a road game at Coors. He's earned that trust.

 

 

Jorge De La Rosa

rotoballer-fantasy-baseball-advice-jorge-de-la-rosa

2013/2014 Velocity: 91.2/92.3 (gain of 1.1 mph)

2013/2014 BB%, K%, LD%: 8.7/9.6, 15.7/19.6, 25.1/15.1

2013/2014 ERA, FIP: 3.49/4.14, 3.76/4.38

De La Rosa's home park will always hold him back, but especially for a pitcher at Coors I do like to see the strikeouts going up. If the added velocity he's shown this season is helping him sustain that in addition to the weaker contact he's been allowing so far, then he could be a very good matchup play going forward when he's pitching on the road.

 

Mike Leake

2013/2014 Velocity: 90.4/91.3 (gain of 0.9 mph)

2013/2014 BB%, K%, LD%: 6.0/4.8, 15.2/14.9, 21.5/19.1

2013/2014 ERA, FIP: 3.37/3.09, 4.04/4.02

I find it hard to get excited about a pitcher who's strikeout rate sits just under 15%. Maybe the velocity increase will help Leake sustain some of his gains, but a full point difference between a players ERA and FIP should give you a sense he's been pitching a little over his head. I'd use him for now, while the going's good, but he's still a matchup guy for me in the long run.

 

Wily Peralta

2013/2014 Velocity: 94.6/95.2 (gain of 0.6 mph)

2013/2014 BB%, K%, LD%: 9.1/4.6, 16.1/18.1, 21.3/19.6

2013/2014 ERA, FIP: 4.37/2.05, 4.30/3.71

rotoballer-fantasy-baseball-advice-wily-peralta

Wily Peralta's ERA is going to have to go up at some point, unless you think that he really is capable of sustaining a Clayton Kershaw-like ERA with less than Clayton Kershaw-like peripherals. What that ERA climbs to though is still a very fantasy friendly number.

The velocity increase he has experienced this season isn't anything dramatic, but coupled with the across the board improvements he's made to his strikeout, walk, and contact rates, and the fact that he was already starting with a very impressive fastball before the improvement, he presents the kind of pitcher I'd be comfortable starting against virtually any team right now.

 

Bud Norris

2013/2014 Velocity: 92.4/93.0 (gain of 0.6 mph)

2013/2014 BB%, K%, LD%: 19.0/16.1, 8.7/6.8, 21.5/20.5

2013/2014 ERA, FIP: 4.18/3.58, 3.86/4.51

Norris' velocity may be a tick up but he doesn't have much to show for it at this point. Especially with his strikeout rate down from last season, I'm gonna need to see a lot more from him before he's anything more than a matchup guy for me.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Chase Elliott

an Easy DFS Pick at Chicago Street Course
Chris Buescher

Should Be Strong at Chicago Street Course
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Solid DFS Target After Qualifying 37th at Chicago
Michael McDowell

Has Solid Saturday at Chicago Street Course
Will Brown

an Interesting Fantasy Option at Chicago Street Course
Justin Haley

Has Strong Record at Chicago Street Course
Todd Gilliland

Could Surprise at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF