RADIO
Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 12 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
A dozen weeks in to the season, and hopefully those of you reading this column have scored big with the guys I hit on in this column and avoided the guys I missed on...especially in Week 6.
But we're past that now. Let's take a look at the last couple weeks of this column. Wades were winners in Week 10, as Wade Miley went 1-0 with 11 strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA, while Wade LeBlanc also finished 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 1.93 ERA. As for last week's column, there have been several solid starts so far, but David Means leads the pack after allowing one run over five innings with seven strikeouts to earn the win.
Now that we've got the recap out of the way, it's time to look at two-start streamers for the 12th time this season.
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Week 12 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Zach Plesac, CLE - 42% owned
Probable opponents: @ TEX, vs DET
Four starts into his major league career, Plesac has been looking pretty good on the mound for Cleveland, going 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA, 0.973 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. Plesac surrendered a season-high four runs in his last start against Cincinnati to earn the loss, but prior to that outing he had recorded back-to-back quality starts against the White Sox and the Yankees.
Plesac is going to be a gamble for owners this week, as he has a tough start against the Rangers before closing out the week with a soft matchup against Detroit. Texas is averaging a lot of runs (5.2/game) and a lot of strikeouts (10.2/game) over their last 10 games while hitting .253 with a .721 OPS over that span. The Rangers are also hitting significantly better against right-handed starters (.271 avg, .825 OPS) than against southpaws (.230, .703), and they do slightly better at the plate at home (.260, .795) than on the road (.253, .769). If Plesac can handle the Rangers, he'll them get a plum matchup against Detroit, which is currently averaging 3.6 runs and 9.1 strikeouts over their last game. Along with that, the Tigers are hitting worse on the road this season, and they have significantly more struggles against right-handed starters than left-handers — posting an average 25 points lower and an OPS over 100 points lower against righties.
He will be a high-risk, high reward play in fantasy this week. Texas is going to be a very difficult start, but owners can have some hope as he has previously limited Boston and New York to a combined three runs over 12 1/3 innings this year. If Plesac can pitch well in Texas, owners should be rewarded with his start against Detroit.
Adrian Sampson, TEX - 29% owned
Probable opponents: vs CLE, vs CHW
Sampson did not factor into the decision on Thursday night as he was rocked for six runs over five innings against Boston. But before that, Sampson had won in five straight starts while posting a 1.99 ERA over 31 2/3 innings. His last two outings before Boston included a one-run, 11-strikeout performance against Kansas City, and a one-run, seven-strikeout performance in a complete game effort against Oakland.
This week Sampson gets a pair of home starts, which will provide a boost to his value as he has pitched significantly better at home (4-1, 2.70 ERA, 1.157 WHIP) than on the road (1-2, 6.92 ERA, 1.692 WHIP) this year. He'll start things off against Cleveland, which is currently averaging 4.6 runs and 7.5 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .223. Sampson will also get to benefit from the Indians' batting splits, which show they are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.223 avg, .665 OPS, 23.8% strikeout rate) than lefties (.235, .767, 21.6%) and they are hitting worse on the road (.225, .685) than at home (.227, .701). After facing the Indians, Sampson will close out the week against Chicago, which is 3.8 runs and 7.4 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .232. On top of that, Chicago has nearly identical splits to Cleveland, with the White Sox hitting worse against right-handed starters than left-handers, and they are hitting worse on the road than at home.
I wouldn't be surprised if Sampson ended up being the top two-start streaming option this week. Again, outside of his latest outing against Boston, Sampson has been very solid, and the matchups this week seem like a prime opportunity for fantasy owners. Look to target Sampson as your top option this week.
Week 12 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Mike Fiers, OAK - 25% owned
Probable opponents: vs BAL, vs TBR
Fiers has been on a bit of a streak lately, albeit against a rather soft schedule. He's recorded five straight quality starts to go 3-0 over that span with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.011 WHIP. Fiers will have another relatively soft slate this week, as he gets a pair of home starts against the Orioles and the Rays. The Orioles should be the best matchup this week for Fiers, as they are averaging 3.7 runs and 10.1 strikeouts over their last games, and they have struggled more against right-handed starters (.236 avg, .691 OPS) than versus lefties (.243, .719). The Rays have done marginally better over their last 10 games, averaging 4.5 runs and 9.5 strikeouts in that span, but Fiers just faced off with Tampa Bay in his last start — limiting them to three hits and two runs over six innings.
There haven't been a lot of strikeouts for Fiers this year, but he's been very solid as of late despite the underwhelming strikeout rate. Fiers will probably provided the most value in leagues that count quality starts this week, but if you're looking for a guy who shouldn't blow up your ERA, he's probably a good pickup with this scheduled slate.
Merrill Kelly, ARI - 20% owned
Probable opponents: vs COL, vs SFG
While he's been somewhat inconsistent this year, Kelly has put together a string of solid outings this month with three quality starts, three wins and a 0.81 ERA in June. Kelly will be at home for both starts this week, which should boost his value as he has posted a 2.35 ERA and 1.070 WHIP at home versus a 4.95 ERA and 1.443 WHIP on the road. He'll start off the week against the Rockies, who are averaging 4.9 runs and 9.3 strikeouts over their last 10 games. Kelly faced off against Colorado recently, where he allowed four runs over 6 2/3 innings with five strikeouts while taking the loss. Kelly will also have a second crack at the Giants this week after throwing 5 1/3 shutout innings against them last month to earn the win.
Kelly doesn't have quite the easy matchups that some of the other guys have this week, but he should still provide solid fantasy value in Week 12. Owners should look at Kelly as comparable to Fiers this week, except with a potentially better ERA.
Tommy Milone, SEA - 2% owned
Probable opponents: vs KCR, vs BAL
Make it four out of five guys on this week's list with a pair of home starts. After posting a 3.45 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 15 2/3 innings this month, Milone will have arguably the best matchups out of everyone on this week's list. Milone will start off the week against the Royals, who are averaging 2.9 runs and 10.4 strikeouts over their last 10 games. He'll also benefit from the Royals' .235 average against left-handed starters (13 points lower than versus righties) and a .677 OPS (53 points lower). Milone will then face the Orioles to close out the week, where he will have most of the same benefits that I outlined with Fiers, with the only exception being he won't get the benefit of Baltimore's struggles against right-handed starters.
Milone likely won't be the best option on this week's list, but he will be the most widely available. If you're desperate to grab a two-start streamer this week and the other four guys on this list have already been snagged, you shouldn't be hurting for missing out.
