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Bet on These Backstops
Catchers are the bane of seemingly every fantasy owner's existence. They tend not to accrue as many PAs as other hitters, while real teams value their defense to the exclusion of any semblance of offensive production. What masochist decided we should have to roster two of these?
Fear not - the catching situation is better than in previous years. In fact, there is probably enough talent to go around in standard mixed leagues with one C slot. If you require more than that, consider the players below, all of whom figure to deliver quality production relative to their current ADP.
Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers (Current ADP: 70.2)
It may seem odd to attach a sleeper tag to the second-ranked player at a position, but Lucroy's ability to deliver value similar to Buster Posey's (24.8 ADP) four full rounds later deserves attention. Over 655 PA last season - an insane amount for a catcher - Lucroy delivered a .301 average with 13 HR. With a strong walk rate (10.1%), a strong K rate (10.8%), and an above-average line drive rate, Lucroy figures to deliver similar numbers in 2015. Like Posey, Lucroy frequently mans first base, allowing him to accumulate more PA than almost every other backstop.
While Posey's .311 average and 22 bombs seem to place him ahead of Lucroy, the latter's advanced stats indicate that he could catch his rival. Lucroy posted a 7.1% HR/FB ratio last season. This stat is prone to luck related fluctuation, and Lucroy's career mark is 8.9%. If this normalizes, Lucroy could pair his excellent average with a few more dingers in 2015. Posey is vulnerable to similar fluctuations as well, having hit only 15 HRs in 2013. If Lucroy's rate returns to its career average while Posey reverts to his 2013 performance, he could outproduce the former MVP. Working in Lucroy's favor is a home park that's much more conducive to power hitting.
BABIP (batting average on balls in play) could also help Lucroy's case. Line drives are the best type of batted ball for hitters, and Lucroy hit only .652 on them in 2014. League average is .685, and Lucroy's career norm is .697. Some of this luck evened out in grounder and flyball BABIPs that exceeded Lucroy's previous endeavors, but his average could be due for a modest bump - all it would take to reach Posey.
Ultimately, the real question is whether Posey will out produce Lucroy by the four full rounds he is currently being taken ahead of him, and that seems incredibly unlikely. Take Lucroy, and reap the rewards of similar production at a reduced cost.
Russell Martin, Jays (Current ADP: 188)
When research for this article began, Martin's ADP was over 200, a shocking overreaction to the expected BABIP regression Martin appears to be due for. It is now trending upwards, but it is still too high. Martin's .336 BABIP was very high, especially for a catcher that lacks the speed to rack up infield hits. All of this luck manifested itself on ground balls, where Martin's .273 BABIP far exceeded both his .227 career mark and the league average of .239.
While he won't hit .290 again, there were some positive trends that might allow Martin to remain a slight plus in the category. Martin's walk rate has improved three years running, rising from 10.9% in 2012 to 11.5% in 2013 to 12.8% last season. Since superior plate discipline tends to lead to higher averages, this growth is significant even in leagues that do not count walks. Declining strikeout rates are also a positive trend for average growth, and Martin managed to lower his K rate from 21.3% in 2013 to 17% last year, below the league's 20.4% average. He also has plus speed for a catcher.
Martin's counting stats, meanwhile, should be in line for a major increase due to the move to Toronto. Projected to bat second, behind Jose Reyes and in front of sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, Martin could be in line for 100 runs and a healthy RBI total. Moving to Rogers Centre should also help Martin's power numbers, as should the increased playing time afforded to him by a move to the AL and the corresponding chance to DH on his days off from catching. Martin should easily produce first catcher value at a second catcher price tag, and may justify waiting on the position in single catcher leagues.
Jason Castro, Astros (Current ADP 280)
Castro hits for some power, strikes out way too much (29.5% in 2014), and hits for a terrible average (.222 last year). Based on this profile, you might expect him to be a pull everything guy, losing knock after knock to the devastating shift. This is actually not the case, as Castro has a fairly wide spread hit distribution. This means that he actually could hit for a plus average if he would stop whiffing one out of every three times, and perhaps not kill you in the category even if he doesn't.
He didn't in 2013, when he hit .276 with 18 HR in an effort that earned him sleeper status heading into 2014. That campaign was fueled by an unsustainable .351 BABIP. Castro may have seen an over-correction here last season. His 19.6% line drive rate was below the major league average in 2014, but he posted a sky high 25.2% the prior season. Given Castro's rates from part time work in 2010 (22.5% liners in 250 PAs) and 2012 (27.5% in 292 PAs), it would appear that last year - not 2013 - was the outlier.
The liners Castro did hit in 2014 found little luck in avoiding gloves, achieving a BABIP of just .639. Castro's liners had a .688 mark in 2013, fairly close to the .685 league average. Is it that unreasonable to expect Castro to revert to his 2013 figure, when it corresponds so closely to the league average mark? Likewise, Castro's flies had a BABIP of .150 in 2014 and .207 in 2013. League average is .207, so the "fluke" year was nothing more than a league average performance.
Finally, Castro's 11.5% HR/FB was only slightly above average. Minute Maid Park is great for offense, so a player with any power at all can expect an above average HR rate there. In Houston's retooled offense, R and RBI opportunities should be more plentiful than last season. Castro should be able to produce second catcher numbers at an extremely low cost on draft day.
There are a lot of things a fantasy owner should like in Navarro's profile. He has posted an above average line drive rate in each of the last three seasons (31% in limited 2012 time, 25.4% in 2013, 24.1% in 2014). His 14.6% whiff rate last season was below the major league average. He plays in a favorable stadium. Despite seemingly having been around forever (remember when he was part of the package that landed the Yankees Randy Johnson?), he is only 31. All he needs to be better than serviceable as a second catcher in mixed leagues is a place to play.
Currently, Navarro is blocked by Martin at C and Edwin Encarnacion at DH, but at 1B, the Jays have an unholy platoon of Justin Smoak and Danny Valencia. That could definitely fail, forcing E5 to play first and opening DH for Navarro. A trade is also a possibility, as a lot of teams could use a catcher that can hit, even if he is not the best defensively. A good old fashioned injury could also let Navarro see playing time. While his situation is currently in too much flux to count on him for Opening Day, he is a great candidate to watch in the early going. If something happens that allows Navarro consistent playing time, he's worth a look.
Kevin Plawecki, Mets (Current ADP: Undrafted)
This prospect is a target for very deep league and dynasty owners. Plawecki has hit in every level of the minor leagues. He split last season between AA and AAA, hitting .326 at the former level and .283 at the latter, with 11 HR in 419 PA combined. His K rate increased at the higher level (10.8% to 12.4%), but it remained above average against the most advanced competition the minors have to offer. Also encouraging is that his walk rate increased at AAA (6.4% to 8.2%). This is indicative of an advanced approach to hitting that should play in the majors as soon as he is given a chance.
That chance should come soon, as current Mets catcher Travis d'Arnaud is simply not a major league backstop. While defensive metrics are not as reliable as their offensive counterparts, they all agree that d'Arnaud is terrible. He led MLB in passed balls last year with 12. He allowed 58 of 72 base thieves to swipe the bag successfully, an awful 19% CS clip. He was worth -15 Defensive Runs Saved. According to Inside Edge, he made only 42.9% of "likely" made plays, defined as having a successful play made 60-90% of the time. If you reject all defensive metrics and prefer to rely on the eye test, take it from a Mets fan that watched about 150 games last year - he truly is putrid. Offensively, d'Arnaud reminds no one of Mike Piazza, posting a mediocre .242/.302/.416 triple slash line in 2014.
Plawecki is two years younger and a better fielder. He is the catcher of the future for the Mets, and any chance they have of contending this season depends on the future being now. That said, right now the job is d'Arnaud's. Keeper leaguers will want Plawecki, but those in redraft leagues can adopt a wait and see approach.
While the catcher position has been a minefield for fantasy owners since the game was invented, the above players should provide a road map to navigate the treacherous waters safely in 2015. Be sure to check out RotoBaller's sleepers blog for more values that can help you win your league this year.
