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My Top 10 Potential Busts for Week 4


Listen, not every column can be sunshine and rainbows.  We can tell you all about how Julio Jones will score 30 points because he's Julio Jones and of course he will.  Sometimes, you just have to face the grim reality that the players you drafted aren't as good as you thought they'd be (for me, this is every week - screw you Jeremy Hill, I could've had Julio) and so we're here to tell you which players those are.

If you drafted these guys, buckle up and prepare for sadness.  Maybe get some ice cream, some white wine, and a Nicholas Sparks movie.  If you DIDN'T draft these players, I kind of hate you but at least you don't have ice cream.

In order of how badly they have screwed me so far this season, since I am much more vindictive and mean than I thought I was, I now present the:

 

Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts

1. Jeremy Hill

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I COULD'VE DRAFTED JULIO JONES I HATE EVERYTHING. Seriously, last year I had Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson and my team was named the WRecking Crew* I could've had the WRecking Crew 2 it even rhymes gaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh.

Anyway, Hill was most likely a late first, early second round pick and aside from a week 1 performance rescued by 2 TDs, Hill has not lived up to his billing. I don't figure that his status as a disappointment is likely to change too much this week, as the Bengals suddenly find themselves up to their ears in receiving weapons - AJ Green remembered he's AJ Green and Tyler Eifert looks elite. Plus, Gio Bernard is still in the backfield mix and suddenly the mix of "goal line carries plus elite potential" has given way to something like 2.0 YPC and a passing game somehow NOT being derailed by Andy Dalton. (It's still early, though, and the Bengals haven't played in primetime yet, so this could change.)

Unfortunately, until it DOES change, I'm off the Jeremy Hill hype train. The Chiefs have demonstrated that they can be passed on, and the Bengals have those aforementioned receiving weapons. Bernard has also outplayed Hill so far this season besides the two TDs Hill scored against Oakland. It's not looking good for Hill owners.

* Yes, this team name WAS inspired by the B-list Marvel villains the Wrecking Crew. Please don't sue me, benevolent Disney overlords. It wasn't even a money league!

2. Lamar Miller

Oh hey look, it's my RB2! People were expecting an offensive breakout in South Florida this season, but it looks like the offense is just broken. With losses to the Bills (who are surprisingly good) and the Jaguars (unsurprisingly not good), the Dolphins have been a disappointment this season. Miller came in to this season boasting borderline RB1 numbers in 2014, but those numbers have failed to materialize so far this season.

And, to make matters even worse, Miller is facing the Jets (also surprisingly good) and their run defense is typically stout. Underperforming team + good run defense = disappointed fantasy owners. Steer clear of Miller this week, and until the Dolphins wake up/fire their coach, Miller is strictly a matchup play.

Christ, I need to hit that ice cream again. Hold up a sec.

3. LeSean McCoy *

As of right now, the rumor is that Shady might be held out of the Bills' game against the Giants this week. However, even if he plays, I would avoid him this week if you have any other options. Karlos Williams, for instance. If we're hearing even rumors and rumblings that the Bills are thinking about sitting McCoy to rest his hamstring, he's almost certainly not at 100% this week. Toss in a lack of scores (meaning all his points have come from yardage) and the fact that the Giants have allowed the second fewest rushing yards to their opponents this season, and suddenly we're in scary territory.

But wait, there's more! Rookie Karlos Williams has averaged 7.75 yards per carry and scored in all three of the Bills' games so far this season. So to sum up, you have a) a bum hamstring, b) a bad matchup, and c) a talented backup who can carry the load, all at the same time. McCoy is a hard pass this week, even if he suits up.

But hey, I didn't draft him, so no sadness ice cream for me in this entry!

** This column was written BEFORE the injuries news confirming McCoy will be out on Sunday. Start Karlos with confidence.

4. Allen Robinson

OH COME ON THIS IS JUST CRUEL WHO'S EVEN MAKING THIS LIST? Yeah, Robinson was a trendy sleeper pick this season, and he certainly showed up in week 2, but his week 3 left a lot to be desired - and the Patriots don't have Vontae Davis like the Colts do. With one of the league's premier shutdown corners covering him, and the Immortal Blake Bortles (which is inaccurate, but very fun to say) throwing him the ball, Robinson does not inspire confidence this week. You can't even make the "the Jags will be playing from way behind and will have to throw" argument because the Colts' offense has been a dumpster fire this season and the Jaguars may legitimately be in this game till the very end. Considering the quality of pass defense the Colts have and the whatever the opposite of quality is of run defense the Colts have, I expect Robinson to have a very pedestrian game this week, at best.

And I'm out of ice cream now. When will the suffering end?

5. Justin Forsett **

Yet another high-round RB failing to live up to his hype, Forsett's fantasy value has dropped as the Ravens increasingly rely on the pass. Which is completely baffling to me, as the only WR on the roster I can even name is Steve Smith, and that dude is like 40. Some dude named Crockett Gilmore is getting significant attention in the Baltimore aerial game. That can't be a real name. That sounds like a character in a Western porn parody who walks into a saloon in a ten-gallon hat, Tom Selleck mustache, assless chaps and absolutely nothing else.

That might have been unfair.  Crockett Gilmore might wear a bandanna on set.

Anyway, Forsett had 13 yards on 10 carries against the Bengals last week. Anyone who manages a statline like that gets benched the next week on principle, regardless of opponent. The Ravens could be playing the Glen Burnie Pop Warner Li'l Pro Bowlers and I'd still be like "neat, maybe he'll hit 2 YPC and make Trent Richardson proud."

Poor Trent Richardson. He's not even in the league anymore and I'm still clowning him. I'm sorry Trent Richardson. It's not YOUR fault that two separate NFL GMs spent first-round picks to acquire you, despite the evidence of all their senses telling them not to do that. And the senses of their family dogs, who can hear the frequencies of sub-3.0 yards per carry running backs in ways no human can ever hope to. Pity poor Fido.

** This column was written BEFORE the Ravens-Steelers game on Thursday, but I really believe in the potential of Crockett Gilmore's name, so it stays up.

6. Doug Martin

Remember when Doug Martin blew up on the Raiders in 2012? Remember how he hasn't done anything even remotely resembling the same sort of thing since then? If you own Martin, the chances you answered "yes" to question A are pretty high. The chances you answered "yes" to question B are probably pretty slim, though. Which is weird if you think about it, considering that Martin being an anchor on fantasy teams is a much more recent occurrence.

Don't expect that to change this week, as the Buccaneers are still bad, and they play the Panthers this week. The Panthers' defense may not be the world beating unit it was a couple years ago, but they're not bad by any stretch of the imagination.  Martin hasn't found the endzone at all this season, not even against the Titans, and the Titans let Frank Gore's aging corpse waltz in and out of their endzone like he owned the place last week.  I don't know why you'd still be starting Martin in a lineup, and if you are, you're probably so committed to this course of action that nothing I say will dissuade you, but take him out of your lineup. Martin had a great game in 2012, but it's 2015.  We have iPhone 6s now. Martin was good back when we had iPhone 4s. That's practically prehistory. Might as well start Lucy the Australopithecus woman. Sure, she's fossilized now, but she was a terror in 10,000 B.C. Pro Bowl season, right there - she was shifty and quick and the woolly mammoths just couldn't keep up.

7. Peyton Manning

Surprise, b*tches! There's a QB who's been even bustier than Andrew Luck this season - I just now realized that was a terrible way to phrase that and good luck getting THAT mental image out of your head. Peyton "Fivehead" Manning and Andrew "Secretly a Cave Troll" Luck in a wet T-shirt contest. Ugh. Uuuuuuuuuuuggggggghhhhhhh.

Turns out cookie dough ice cream absolutely doesn't taste as good coming back up as it did going down.

Anyway, Manning has looked as mortal as we've ever seen him, and the Vikings defense is sneakily excellent at getting pressure on the quarterback. For instance, they may have only logged one sack against Matt Stafford in their game against the Lions, but they hit Stafford 10 (!) times. I'm expecting something much closer to the "no offensive touchdowns against the Ravens" Peyton Manning than any other version of everyone's favorite Nationwide spokesman, if only because he'll be busy trying not to get murdered this Sunday.  Which is a legitimate possibility, given the state of his spinal column. For the first time ever, I'd recommend taking a hard look at your backup QB/the waiver wire if Peyton is your starter. Derek Carr is probably still available, and he's getting the sentient Swiss cheese that is the Bears' secondary this week.  Just a tip.

8. Melvin Gordon

He's losing goal line touches to Danny Woodhead. DANNY WOODHEAD. Danny Woodhead is the exact antithesis of a "goal-line threat" RB. Typically those RBs are like 6 foot, 250 pounds and score by leaning forward and trusting gravity. Danny Woodhead is not 6 foot, 250. Danny Woodhead is closer to 5 foot, 150. Danny Woodhead represents the Lollipop Guild. My point is that Danny Woodhead is a very tiny football player and he is the person no first-round phenom running back should be losing goal line touches to.

Plus the Chargers have gone through like 20 different offensive lineman this season, and that never bodes well for running back performance. For the price you paid for him, Gordon isn't providing the return on investment he should be.

9. Alfred Morris

There was really a guy in my league who drafted Doug Martin and Alfred Morris this season. I was legitimately worried he'd suffered a head trauma and thought it was 2012 again. Like, I wanted to ask him if he was voting for Obama or Romney. I was 95% sure "Call Me Maybe" was playing in his head while he drafted.

Anyway, Alfred Morris got only 6 carries for 19 yards in last Thursday's game against the Giants. With the advent of Matt Jones and some guy named Chris Thompson taking my Matt Jones points from me, Alfred Morris is no longer the lead back in Washington. At best it's a "running back by committee" situation, with Morris as #2 in said committee. At worst, Morris will be phased out. I'm not high on him this week, or indeed at all going forward.

10. Andrew Luck

HAHA I thought I was getting out of here without one more crack at my oh so disappointing lineup, didn't I? Oh no, me, I don't get off that easy!

That was very confusing. I apologize.

Anyway, Luck shows up on this list because the Colts have been exceedingly lackluster this season and while it's always tempting to bet against the Jaguars, there is a distinct possibility that the Jags beat this Colts team. The Colts got taken to the wire by the Titans last week. Luck is the last entry on this list because it's more likely that he styles on Jacksonville than not, but there is a distinct chance he throws up a 3-INT bomb again. If you have him, you have to start him, but it is a make or break week for the Stanford prodigy.

 

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