RADIO
Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 4th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 4th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/4/23
Tonight we have a 10-game slate and two teams playing on a back-to-back: Winnipeg and Edmonton. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Ottawa with 4.1, Kings with 4, and Toronto with 4 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this eight-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 6:00 p.m. EST and 7:00 p.m. EST respectively
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Filip Gustavsson- DK $7.3K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Gustavsson checks entirely too many boxes in this matchup with the shot-heavy Flames. In Calgary’s last five games at home, they have scored just 12 goals, while being outscored 17-12 and they rank in the bottom half of the league in both Goals For Per 60 and High Danger Chances Per 60 while being the second-best team in Shots For Per 60 – 34.88. Meanwhile, Gustavsson has won 4 of his last five games and he has limited teams to just 8 goals in that span – the lowest on the slate by four goals. Not only is Gustavsson one of the ‘cheaper’ options, but he could have a great night if he is able to stimy the Flames early.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Talbot (DK $8.5K || FD $8.8K), Saros (DK $8.3K || FD $8.3K)
Centers
Tim Stuztle-DK $6.7K || FD $8.1K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Welcome to ‘chalk-city’. Stutlze and the Senators will be extremely high-owned thanks to their incredibly friendly matchup with the Blue Jackets in Ottawa. The Blue Jackets are traveling on the second half of their back-to-back after getting trampled by the Seattle Kraken 4-2 in Columbus last night. Furthermore, the Blue Jackets just got rid of Joonas Korpisalo who was the better of the two goalies. Either Elvis Merzlikins will start his second game in as many days or Michael Hutchinson, who is an even worse option, will see time in the crease. This spells a potential blowout match for Stutzle. Through his last five games, he has 3 goals, 2 assists, and 18 shots.
Evgeny Kuznetsov- DK $4.9K || FD $K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Unfortunately, Kuznetsov and the Capitals are not playing well, unlike the Senators in what will be another great matchup. Thanks to the awful form the Capitals are in, they may go under-owned compared to where they should see ownership. In Kuznetsov’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 3 assists, and 12 shots. As I have stated before in previous articles, the Sharks are not bad defensively, however, they remain one of the worst teams in the league in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.06. In San Jose’s last five home games, they have been outscored 19-13 and the Capitals should see a fair amount of chances tonight against a Sharks team that has waved the white flag.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matthews (DK $8.6K || FD $10K), Crosby (DK $7.1K || FD $K)
Wings
Claude Giroux- DK $5.7K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Welcome back to the projected highest-owned team on the slate. This time we will focus on the cheaper of the two wings that play with Stutzle, veteran Claude Giroux. In Giroux’s last five appearances, he has 3 goals, 6 assists, and 15 shots. The top line for the Senators is one of the most productive lines in the league right now and the most productive line on the slate. Over the season, Blue Jackets are the second-worst team in Shots Against Per 60 – 34.14 –, the seventh-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 31.09 – and the fifth-worst team in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.05. Giroux is teetering on the instant ‘lock’ line.
Viktor Arvidsson- DK $5.6K || FD $6.2K
Opponent - St Louis Blues
Despite Ottawa being in a prime matchup and in prime form, the Kings have the ultimate matchup on the slate tonight. Not only are the Blues getting outscored 24-13 in their last five away matches, but expected starter Jordan Binnington has conceded 18 goals in his last five appearances. Furthermore, the Blues are in the bottom ten of the league in Goals Against Per 60, Scoring Chances Against Per 60, and High Danger Chances Against Per 60. Arvidsson should see a good amount of time against the top line for St Louis which happens to be their worst defensive line as well. In his last five appearances, he has 2 goals and 17 shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $8.7K || FD $K), Marner (DK $6.6K || FD $8.2K)
Defense
Rasmus Sandin- DK $3.1K || FD $K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Tonight will be the debut of new Capitals player, Rasmus Sandin. The ex-Maple Leaf led the top power play for a good bit of the season while Morgan Reilly was on the shelf and he excelled at it. With John Carlson still not back from his own injury and Erik Gustafsson going the other way in the Sandin trade, this is his for the making. Sandin is expected to jump into the second pairing and quarterback the top power-play unit. Over Sandin’s last five games with the Maple Leafs, he had 1 goal, 3 assists, 10 shots, and 7 blocked shots.
Evan Bouchard- DK $3.7K || FD $4.2K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
Bouchard is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the NHL Trade Deadline this year. The defenseman has taken over duties of the first power-play unit for the Edmonton Oilers now that Tyson Barrie has moved to Nashville in the Mattias Ekholm trade. Surprisingly enough, Bouchard has yet to get a point in two games since his promotion. In that time, he has 4 shots and 3 blocked shots. He should be an instant ‘lock’ moving forward until his salary starts to climb.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Chabot (DK $6K || FD $6.6K), Barrie (DK $4.7K || FD $6K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- OTT1
- EDM1
- WAS1
- TOR1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- WAS: Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Sandin
Chalk Stack
- OTT: Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Sneaky Stack
- NAS: Barrie-Novak-Tomasino
