RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 18th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/18/23
The trade market has officially come and gone and teams are gearing up for a tough stretch of very meaningful games and playoffs in hopes of a date with Lord Stanley. Tonight we have a 7-game slate with one team playing on a back-to-back, Toronto. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Tampa Bay with 4.5, Los Angeles with 3.9 and Toronto with 3.6. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Ilya Sorokin- DK $8.2K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
We do not have any true value plays at goalie tonight, so the next step is to find value in high-win opportunity goalies. Sorokin fits the bill due to his opponent and each team’s form. Sorokin has won 4 of his last five appearances while possessing a Save Percentage below 0.900 twice. Despite the Sharks' poor defense they are managing to score goals – 14 goals in the last five home fixtures –. However, Sorokin is tied for the third-best goals against in his last five starts. A shutout could be on the cards.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vasilevskiy (DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K), Korpisalo (DK $8.3K || FD $7.9K)
Centers
Auston Matthews-DK $9.2K || FD $10K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
There is a decent gap in salary tonight at the center position with Matthews priced $1.1K higher than the second-highest priced center, Elias Pettersson, $8.1K on DraftKings. Matthews currently has 4 goals in his last five games, as well as 3 assists, 27 shots and 6 blocked shots – averaging a shot bonus per game on DraftKings –. The Senators are not a bad team by any means, but their goaltending hasn’t been consistent at all this season. Mads Sogaard is expected to start for Ottawa tonight and in his last five games, he has given up 23 goals. Anything can happen tonight in a fast-paced meeting with the Senators.
Barrett Hayton- DK $4.4K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Hayton should be an instant plug-and-play tonight. The center is easily the most in-form player on the slate with 3 goals, 6 assists, 19 shots and 2 blocked shots over his last five appearances and he is playing the Chicago Blackhawks tonight. Over the season, the Blackhawks are the third-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 33.89 –, the second-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.59 –, the fourth-worst in High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 13.37 – and the sixth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3 –. Hayton and the rest of the first line will see the two worst defensive lines for Chicago tonight to really drive this home. For under $5K on DraftKings this is the best value you will find in any position tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Point (DK $7.2K || FD $8.7K), Horvat (DK $6.8K || FD $7.6K)
Wings
Kyle Palmieri- DK $3.8K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Despite Seattle winning against San Jose on Tuesday 2-1, it was a disappointing effort from the Kraken who ultimately should have lost. Tonight we roll the dice with another inconsistent team as of late with the Islanders. The Isles have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this season, but they have one of the best matchups on the slate, especially if Kaapo Kahkonen starts for the Sharks. In Kahkonen’s last five games, he has conceded a slate-high 25 goals. The Islanders are coming off a big 6-3 win against Anaheim on Wednesday where Palmieri had 1 goal, 3 assists and 2 shots. If we date it back further to his last five games, he has 1 goal, 4 assists, 11 shots and 1 blocked shot. His shot output is starting to climb and that is no surprise with his promotion to the top power-play unit. With plenty of big players to pay up for tonight, paying down in a prime spot for Palmieri is the perfect ‘punt’ play.
Alex Killorn- DK $4.1K || FD $4.8K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Another under-priced player has a great matchup tonight. Alex Killorn has transformed the Lightning back into a dangerous offensive team over the last two weeks, thanks to his big-bodied presence on the top power-play, something they lacked. In the last five appearances for Killorn, he has 2 goals, 1 assist, 15 shots and 3 blocked shots. The Canadiens are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 9-5 loss to the Florida Panthers on Thursday. The Lightning pose a similar threat to what the Panthers had and Sam Montembeault who got pulled early is expected to start in net again. You can either run Killorn in a power-play stack or as a one-off, either way, you won’t be disappointed.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marner (DK $7.1K || FD $8.1K), Keller (DK $6.9K || FD $7.6K)
Defense
Juuso Valimaki- DK $4.5K || FD $4.3K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Valimaki is the soul of Arizona now. In the last five games, the defenseman has 4 assists, 11 shots and 14 blocked shots. That fact that he is still under $5K salary on DraftKings is mind-boggling due to the sheer production in all facets of the game. Tonight he will get a juicy matchup with the Chicago Blackhawks who love to concede penalties – Valimaki runs the top power-play for Arizona –. Over the season, Chicago is the third-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 33.89 –, the second-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.59 –, the fourth-worst in High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 13.37 – and the sixth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3 –. There are not many optimal value plays at defense tonight, but Valimaki will certainly garner ownership.
Mikhail Sergachev- DK $5.6K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
I am not one to pay up at defense as they are my normal ‘punt’ positions. However, as mentioned, there is a lack of value plays tonight and Sergachev is in a prime spot to have a big game. The Canadiens just got done giving up 9 goals to the Florida Panthers in a thrilling loss on Tuesday. The Canadiens have improved defensively everywhere, except in front of the net, where they are the third-worst and second-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.29 – and High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 13.89 – respectively. Through Sergachev’s last five games, he has 7 assists, 12 shots and 6 blocked shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dobson (DK 5.8K || FD $6.3K), Sanderson (DK $3.6K || FD $4.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- NYI1
- TB1
- TOR1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- TB: Killorn-Point-Kucherov
Chalk Stack
- NYI: Lee-Horvat-Nelson
Sneaky Stack
- PIT: Zucker-Malkin-Nylander
