RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write primarily MLB and NFL on Rotoballer but I play a lot of NHL DFS and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, February 12th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/12/22
We have tw0 games starting at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, two at 8 p.m. Eastern Time, and one at 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. Same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from the goalie position!
NHL DFS Goalies
Ville Husso - DK $8.3K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Will Ville Husso be in the net tonight? I wrote him up on Thursday, hoping he would be the guy and the Blues went with Binnington and he allowed 5 goals to the Devils en route to a blowout loss. Now, they face a weak Chicago team, implied for 2.6 goals on the slate. I believe Husso is the better goalie and this is a game in which he should get saves and win.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Saros (DK $8.0K || FD $8.2K), Markstrom (DK $8.2K || FD $8.1K), Fleury (DK $7.1K || FD $7.0K - GPP punt only)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Auston Matthews - DK $9.6K || FD $10.3K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
Auston Matthews is the top spend-up option for me on this slate. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points the last four games and he has been peppering shots on goal with 15 shots in the last two games. Tonight, they are implied for 3.5 goals, which is 2nd most on the slate (Nashville is first with 3.6). If you have the money to spend, going with Matthews isn't a bad play tonight as a one-off, or included in a Toronto stack, but he probably isn't necessary for a cash game.
Elias Lindholm - DK $6.6K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - New York Islander
The Calgary Flames are one of the hottest teams in hockey if not the hottest team in hockey. They have come out of the All-Star break with a 6-0 win over Vegas and then followed that up with a 5-2 win over Toronto. Lindholm has scored 39 points in 44 games played, and he averages 2.84 shots on goal per game for the season. He also has scored 15 or more DraftKings points in the last four games (20 or more FanDuel points over that same span). The Flames are likely to see Varlamov in the net for this one (unconfirmed as of this writing) and are implied for 3.3 goals tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Tavares (DK $6.9K || FD $8.5K), O'Reilly (DK $5.9K || FD $5.6K) Granlund (DK $4.1K || FD $5.0K), Backlund (DK $3.3K || FD $4.9K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Filip Forsberg - DK $6.1K || FD $8.9K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
I like this spot Nashville is in tonight. They have the highest implied total on the slate at 3.6 goals and are underpriced on DraftKings. If playing Forsberg, I would definitely pair him up with Granlund if not stacking the entire line. Forsberg has 39 points in 34 games played. He averages 2.94 shots on goal per game. The Jets aren't playing well right now and are coming off of an overtime loss last night to the Dallas Stars.
Mitch Marner - DK $6.7K || FD $8.6K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
Marner has been a shot-on-goal machine recently. His last three games shot on goal were 10, 5, and 7. He has had 20 or more DraftKings points in his last six games played. On FanDuel it was 28 or more in five of his last six games played.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): M. Tkachuk (DK $6.4K || FD $8.2K), Tarasenko (DK $7.0K || FD $8.4K), Duchene (DK $5.3K || FD $7.4K), Buchnevich (DK $5.1K || FD $7.1K), Nylander (DK $5.8K || FD $7.3K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
Roman Josi - DK $7.4K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
I'm really into Nashville tonight if you cannot tell, as I have recommended their first line and now Josi in this article. Josi has 47 points in 46 games and has 30-40 fantasy point upside on a given slate. He's the most expensive defenseman on the slate on both sites but it's hard to say he isn't worth t price here.
Torey Krug- DK $5.3K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
I am all about taking a discount in price defensemen on the first power-play unit in a game the team is implied for 3.5 goals. He is definitely boom-or-bust in that he can register just one or two fantasy points, or he can register 15-16 points. I am willing to take a shot on him tonight in GPPs but just know he virtually has no floor.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): DeAngelo (DK $6.3K || FD $6.5K), Rielly (DK $5.9K || FD $6.6K), Andersson (DK $4.8K || FD $5.6K), Parayko (DK $5.1K || FD $4.9K), Ekman-Larsson (DK $3.4K || FD $5.1K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I love Nashville's value tonight, especially on DraftKings, and because I am sure other sharp players will see their value too, I expect them to be highly owned. In a GPP, I am likely to fade their top line and top power-play even though I think they present a good value and shot at being the top stack of the night. As we progress into the day, if it seems like they won't be as popular as I am anticipating, then I will play them.
That said my top stacks tonight are as follows:
Nashville PP1: Implied for 3.6 goals, the fuller explanation just made above. Playing them tonight will depend on ownership for me.
Toronto PP1: Toronto is implied for 3.5 goals and tonight I will be looking to do something different than just stacking the first line. I am considering going Matthews-Marner-Tavares-Nylander as I would get four of the power play skaters and exposure to the top two lines for Toronto.
Calgary 1 and 2: The Calgary 2 line is super cheap, especially on DraftKings at $9,800 for the three forwards. I imagine Calgary 2 will be a popular filler stack to go with more expensive ones out there like a Toronto. It is very easy to make a Toronto Line 1 or PP1 stack + Calgary 2 stack and still afford an expensive goalie if willing to punt at one defense position on DraftKings. That makes me more inclined to play Calgary 1 if looking for a main stack or pairing Calgary 2 with a lower owned main stack to get leverage on the field that way.
Winnipeg PP1 or Winnipeg 2: This is my sneaky stack of the night. I expect Saros to be popular and I like Nashville overall as a play tonight. A Winnipeg Jets team coming into Nashville and scoring 4-5 goals would definitely destroy many lineups tonight because they would do damage against Saros and I would expect more people to be on Nashville than Winnipeg. I am thinking of a Connor-Wheeler-Schiefle-Morrissey stack here. I'd also consider a Connor-Copp pairing if looking to do something different with your lineup overall and need a two-man combo.
