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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for January 14th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 14th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/14/23
The year 2023 has started off with less than desirable outcomes and at times, games can be much harder to predict than normal. Tonight we ramp max out the slate with 13 games and two teams playing on a back-to-back: Pittsburgh and Edmonton. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Minnesota with 4.1, Detroit with 4 and Florida with 3.9 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this thirteen-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Ilya Sorokin- DK $8.2K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Sorokin and the Islanders have faltered lately, winning just 1 of his last 5 starts, while posting south of 0.900 Save Percentage just once. The netminder continues to be relied on heavily in games, despite the Islanders' increased efforts defensively. Luckily, the Canadiens are one of the worst-producing offenses over the last 10 games, sporting the fourth-worst Goals For Per 60 – 1.64 –. The only issue with taking Sorokin is this may turn into more of a floor game, depending on the pace of play. In the last 10 games, the Canadiens are taking the least amount of Shots For Per 60 – 24.64 – and thankfully they are the second-worst in Scoring Chances For Per 60 – 24.01 –. Expect Sorokin to maintain value in a home matchup against a lackluster Montreal offense.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Ullmark (DK $7.9K || FD $8.9K), Delia (DK $7.3K || FD $7.2K)
Centers
Matty Beniers-DK $4.9K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Seattle will be mega chalk despite the Blackhawks’ shocking win over the Avalanche days ago and Beniers will be the center of it. Beniers in his last five games, has 4 goals, 3 assists, 14 shots and 3 blocked shots. Furthermore, in those five games, he played Boston, Buffalo and Toronto. The rookie is showing that he can perform against any team without any issues and he gets the perfect spot tonight. Chicago is the fifth-worst team in both Shots Against Per 60 – 34.45 – and Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.07 –. Beniers will have plenty of opportunities to maintain and exceed value in this meeting in the Windy City.
Brock Nelson- DK $5.7K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Nelson is the furthest thing from a fantasy darling at the moment, posting just 2 assists and 8 shots over his last five games. After starting the season strong, Nelson has fallen off quite a bit, however, it does not help that he has seen players come and go from his line, leaving very little in terms of chemistry. Luckily, he may be getting a raw Cayden Primeau who is slated to make his season debut for the Canadiens. Last season in 12 games, Primeau was the third-worst goalie in the league with 5 or more starts in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -1.548 –. The Islanders are struggling for offense and there is no better time than now for them to kickstart their scoring, especially Nelson.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Thompson (DK $8.9K || FD $10.2K), Parssinen (DK $3.7K || FD $4.6K)
Wings
Lucas Raymond- DK $3.7K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
There is not much else to say about Raymond, other than he is FIRE. The winger is in crazy form right now, amassing 2 goals, 4 assists, 3 shots and 3 blocked shots over his last two games. Columbus’ Goals Against Per 60 have surely improved, however, they are still the fourth-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 34.58 – and they are the ninth-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 29.75 –. Raymond and company should see the Blue Jackets’ second-line for the most part, providing him another opportunity to extend his point streak.
Jordan Eberle- DK $4.1K || FD $6.3K
Opponent -Chicago Blackhawks
Eberle has a similar storyline to his linemate Matty Beniers. Eberle will be a focal point of the Kraken offense in their meeting with Chicago and over his last five games, he has 2 goals, 5 assists, 9 shots and 3 blocked shots. His shot volume has trailed off a bit due to Beniers taking more, however, his assists have gone up thanks to Beniers scoring more goals. As mentioned, Chicago still possesses a very giving defense and it would be a surprise to not see Eberle as one of the top value plays on the slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): B. Tkachuk (DK $7.6K || FD $8.4K), Hartman (DK $3.9K || FD $5.1K)
Defense
Mortiz Seider- DK $4.8K || FD $5.6
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
This play is reliant on the news about teammate Filip Hronek who is injured and questionable for the meeting with the Blue Jackets. If Hronek ultimately does sit, Seider will move back into the top power-play, giving his value a slight boost. After a great rookie season last year – 7 goals, 43 assists and 187 shots in 82 games –, he has trailed off so far this year in what is referred to as a ‘Sophomore Slump’. However, his form is picking up, tallying 1 goal, 5 assists, 12 shots and 12 blocked shots over his last five appearances. The meeting with the Blue Jackets will be fast-paced, lending many opportunities for Seider to reach value.
Vince Dunn- DK $4.4K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
To cap things off with Seattle and the defense, we will ride with Vince Dunn. The defenseman seems to be finally getting comfortable in his own shoes. Over his last five appearances, he has 3 goals, 6 assists, 12 shots and 3 blocked shots. In the last two games, his peripherals have taken a massive drop, however, he has at least produced on the score sheet to make up for it. Dunn is currently riding a 5-game point streak and he will have every chance to extend that against Chicago.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dobson (DK $6K || FD $6.4K), Ekman-Larsson (DK $2.9K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- SEA1
- NYI1
- CAR1
- DET1
- MIN1
- BUF1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- DET: Seider-Larkin-Raymond
Chalk Stack
- SEA: Burakovsky-Beniers-Eberle
Sneaky Stack
- VGK: Smith-Karlsson-Marchessault
