Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 2. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

The tight end position is undoubtedly the worst position in all of fantasy football. Luckily for fantasy managers, this year might just be one of the best. There looks to be, by my count, six really solid tight ends fantasy managers should be able to depend on from week to week. We all know the big dogs, right? Those are Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle. Then there's Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson and Kyle Pitts who have excellent situations in front of them to perform really well.

The problem is what in the world do fantasy managers do after that? We're going to be taking an in-depth analysis into the tight end position to see if we can identify potential breakouts and the guys whose stats are deceiving us. This can be especially important for any fantasy managers in tight end premium leagues, deep leagues (think 14+) or leagues where you have to start two tight ends.

Even if your league doesn't fall under any of those categories, this information can still be widely helpful if you waited on the position until the very end of your draft or have taken the streaming approach.

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My Approach

One of the most common themes we hear with tight ends is "they're touchdown-dependent." This is true for a lot of tight ends and predicting touchdowns can be extremely difficult. Just because someone scored last week doesn't mean they'll score this week. If that were true, the opposite would also apply, "this tight end hasn't scored in 10 weeks, so he's due", except no one thinks like that because it's not factually correct. So we need to take a step backward. How can we become better at predicting touchdowns? Most of the time, the first thing fantasy managers jump to is targets.

For receivers, this makes a lot of sense. They are highly more likely to be running a route on every single pass play their team attempts. Unfortunately, this is not true for tight ends. Some are called to pass block and so while targets are not a bad indicator to use with tight ends, we can still take one more step backward. We want to focus on how many routes our tight ends are running and how often they are targeted on those routes.

Chasing random touchdowns is a fool's errand. Chase volume, but more importantly chase opportunity. Let's get started!

Chumpsville

Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks

Everett was one of everyone's favorite late-round tight end bargains. There were a lot of reasons to like Everett's potential in the Seattle offense. Unfortunately, it looks unlikely he'll become a player that fantasy managers can feel comfortable starting on an every-week basis.

Last season, if you combine the stats of Jacob Hollister, Will Dissly, and Greg Olsen you get 106 targets, 73 receptions, 699 yards and 6 touchdowns. That equals 142.4 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring. That would've been good for a TE4 finish in 2020. Now that's assuming Everett gets 100% of the tight end production from last season. Even if he takes 75% of it, that number would drop to 106.8 points. Or TE18 last season. Oofta. That's not what we want to hear.

Gerald Everett ran 17 routes on Sunday. Will Dissly ran 19. Don’t get over-excited about the one TD. This is a TE committee, which will pretty tank each other’s value with how much volume Metcalf & Lockett command.

— Rob (@RobFFAddict) September 13, 2021

The bigger problem is Everett and Dissly are splitting the week pretty much 50/50. In Week 1, Dissly ran 19 routes and Everett ran 17. Dissly was also on the field for more passing plays, 21 to 20. Dissly received three targets and Everett was at two. Now, Everett was the one who found the end zone, which is always a great thing at tight end. The problem is there's nothing in his usage to suggest this might become a regular thing.

If Everett is truly to become a tight end fantasy managers can depend on, he's going to have to separate himself from Will Dissly. It's early yet and his role might evolve, but right now, he's a chump.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Gesicki and the following tight end both made appearances on the very early version of this year's Cut List. There's a good reason for that too.

Mike Gesicki played just 39% of the snaps (Durham Smythe: 71%)

The good is he ran 50% snaps in slot, 45% out wide so still being used like a WR - but I am worried that decreases with Will Fuller back next week. Gesicki is droppable imo

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 13, 2021

Playing only 39% of the snaps is highly troublesome. It's pretty simple, you can't score fantasy points if you're not on the field. The fact that Gesicki appeared to have been leap-frogged by Smythe is one thing, but his lack of involvement in the passing game was the icing on the cake. Just not in a good way.

Gesicki has always been used more like a wide receiver and that's the biggest reason he's been a viable tight end the past few years. The problem is everything changed in Miami this offseason. They drafted Jaylen Waddle early in the NFL Draft and signed Will Fuller to go along with DeVante Parker. That slot role he has had on lockdown the past few seasons might not be his anymore.

The Dolphins are going to implement a run-heavy approach most of the season. They threw the ball just 27 times in Week 1. The good news (if there is any) is that Gesicki ran more routes than Smythe did, 17–15. That 50/50 split isn't going to do him any favors in fantasy football though. And all of that was without Will Fuller. Clawing his way back into a decent target share is going to only get more difficult with the number of pass-catchers they already have on their roster. Coupled with the lack of playing time and Gesicki is one of the biggest chumps there is, sadly.

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

There was hope for Hooper going into 2021. The Browns coaching staff talked about getting him more involved in the offensive game plan, which had fantasy managers hoping he'd see an uptick in targets this season. That sounded really promising because in 13 games last season he racked up 5.38 targets a game, good for a pace of 86 over a 16-game season. That'll do just fine at the tight end position.

If Week 1 was any indication though, fantasy managers should accept they've been duped. I admit I was duped. I bought into the Hooper kool-aid, but there's only one thing worse than making a mistake and that's not being able to accept that a mistake was made in the first place.

David Njoku (17) ran more pass routes than Austin Hooper (14) for the #Browns in Week 1.

Njoku also out-targeted Hooper 5 to 3.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 13, 2021

In Week 1, not only did David Njoku play on more passing downs, he ran more routes and received more targets. He also had 76 receiving yards compared to Hooper's 27. Njoku was actually second among all tight ends in air yards in Week 1 with 102 – Hooper had 16. You might be wondering if this makes David Njoku someone fantasy managers should be keeping their eyes on and the answer is yes.

We already knew Njoku was physically more gifted than Hooper. He's bigger, faster and more explosive. That was on full display in Week 1. If that leads to more playing time or more targets – especially with OBJ already ruled out – Njoku just might become someone fantasy managers can stream. Hooper although, is dead in the water.

When identifying tight ends, fantasy managers should be aiming for players that are No. 3 on the target hierarchy. If they're not No. 3, they're unlikely to give you any form of consistent weekly production. He might continue splitting time with Njoku, but if he's used as just the chain mover, there's no reason to keep chasing his upside that doesn't seem to exist.

Feisty Contenders

James O'Shaughnessy, Jacksonville Jaguars

O'Shaughnessy played his college football at Illinois State and was drafted in the 5th round of the 2015 NFL Draft for those of you wondering who in the world James O'Shaughnessy is. The answer to that question is he appears to be starting tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars and maybe, our completely random tight end who becomes a viable starter this season? That part is unknown yet, but there are a lot of positive signs.

First and foremost, fantasy managers need to understand the Jaguars threw the ball 51 times this past Sunday. It's highly unlikely they throw that much moving forward. Of course, they just got their butts kicked by the Houston Texans whom pretty much everyone expected to go 0-17, so maybe they will be passing that much this season. In any case, we're not entirely sure what to expect from this team yet. Here's what we do know though.

Out of 51 pass plays, O'Shaughnessy was in on 44 of them. Chris Manhertz – who just so happened to have caught a touchdown pass in Week 1, which was enough to have him finish as the TE13 – was in on only 12 of those 51 pass plays. Remember, we're not chasing touchdowns. We're chasing volume, but most importantly we're chasing opportunity.

O'Shaughnessy ran 40 routes in Week 1, which was third-most among tight ends. Remember, the game script the Jaguars found themselves likely inflated this number a touch. He also had the 10th most air yards in Week 1 among tight ends. While he didn't score like Manhertz, his usage is much more conducive to positive scoring in the future. O'Shaughnessy received eight targets, catching six of them for 48 yards. It's not exactly the most exciting stat line, but the number of routes run and his 15.6% target share are appealing moving forward. The question is how much changes when Lawrence doesn't have to throw it 51 times in a game? If they play like Week 1, it might just be every week.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

We would all have liked it if the Bears did the logical thing and moved on from Jimmy Graham. Instead, they cut Kyle Fuller, who is a solid cornerback in this league. They kept Graham to do this...

Snaps tonight
-Cole Kmet 51
-Jimmy Graham 14
Just confirming what we already knew. Kmet’s the guy.

— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) September 13, 2021

Instead of having Fuller play pretty much all of their defensive snaps and probably play well, they kept Graham so that he can play 14 plays and do nothing. But it's the Bears. I mean, what do you expect? They're starting Andy Dalton over Justin Fields for crying out loud.

Alright, moving on to the positives about Kmet. Well, just look at that snap share. Kmet is undoubtedly the guy in Chicago. He has completely taken over the starting tight end spot. That's valuable here too because the Bears lack established receivers behind Allen Robinson. As I mentioned before, fantasy managers should be chasing tight ends who have a shot at being their team's No. 2 receiving target or No. 3 in pass-happy offenses. Kmet has a legit chance at being the No. 2 here.

In Week 1, Kmet was on the field for 35 of Chicago's 40 pass plays and ran a route on 32 of them. He received six targets, which was third on the team and just one behind Darnell Mooney. This is exactly the kind of usage fantasy managers should be eyeing up. Not only is Kmet playing a high number of snaps, but he's also running a lot of routes on their passing plays and he looks like he could be the No. 2 target on some weeks, as it's possible he and Mooney flip-flop the role of Robin to Allen Robinson's Batman the rest of the season.

We certainly can't make mention of the Bears without touching on the genie in the bottle, which is, of course, Justin Fields. We have no idea when Matt Nagy will officially call his number, but it stands to reason the offense will be better as a whole once he does. Fields' ability to extend plays and push the ball down the field will make this offense more dynamic, which will in turn increase scoring opportunities.

Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys

We're grouping these two together because they both deserve mention. Generally, we wouldn't want to pay too much attention to tight ends from the same team – although we'll touch base on another tight end duo in a little bit – we also don't want to ignore the type of usage we saw from them in Week 1.

Keep in mind, however, the Cowboys threw the ball 58 times in Week 1. It's likely not a number we'll see very often. In the same breath though, in the last five games that Dak has started and finished under Mike McCarthy, he's thrown 259 attempts, which amounts to 52 per game. It's fair to say the Cowboys are trending towards being one of the more pass-happy offenses in the league once again. The other thing we know is Michael Gallup has been placed on IR, meaning he'll miss the next three weeks, at minimum.

Interesting facts for streaming tight ends… Dalton Schultz ran 39 routes in Week 1. For reference Kelce ran 35.

He lined up in the slot 18 times. Kelce was 17.

Absolutely NOT saying Schultz is or can be Kelce, but a steamer? He’s got the usage we’re looking for.

— Rob (@RobFFAddict) September 13, 2021

Would you look at that? Now, comparing him to Kelce was not totally fair of me since the Cowboys threw the ball 22 more times than the Chiefs, but it's not nothing either. How does Blake Jarwin fit into this? Well, Jarwin route 35 routes. In the tweet above, I referenced how often Schultz lined up in the slot – Jarwin was there 19 times.

The Cowboys ran 83 plays in Week 1 with Schultz holding the edge in terms of playing time with 57 snaps played – Jarwin was at 48. Schultz is the No. 1 target out of this duo, but if you're looking for a streamer, Jarwin is a name to keep your eyes on, especially over these next few weeks with Gallup on IR.

Cedrick Wilson saw an uptick in his playing time once Gallup got hurt, but even prior to that the Cowboys were using both tight ends in the slot and in the passing game. With Gallup's injury, the Cowboys may leave both tight ends on the field more often. They both have the ability to pay dividends in the passing game and improve their run blocking by keeping the defense honest. It'll be interesting to see the snap counts moving forward during Gallup's absence.

Schultz is the tight end to target here. He received six targets to Jarwin's three and more than doubled him up in receiving yards – 45 to 20, but if the Cowboys continue to throw the ball at such a high rate and the coaching staff chooses to replace Gallup with Jarwin as opposed to Wilson, both tight ends could become playable in deeper leagues. In traditional 12-team leagues, Schultz is the one to have.

Da Champs

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

The Noah Fant breakout season might finally be upon us and fantasy managers should be thrilled. First off, this is the first season Fant is catching passes from a competent quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater is an accurate thrower with good anticipation. He might not be able to push the ball down the field like other quarterbacks, but for tight end play, that's less of an issue. In Week 1, fantasy managers saw Jerry Jeudy go down with a nasty ankle injury that already has him on IR. Courtland Sutton didn't look like himself, although he should get a pass since this was his first game back from his torn ACL injury in 2019.

Fant was highly involved from the get-go on Sunday and he might be another in the long list of third-year tight end breakouts. Jeudy and Fant tied for the team lead with seven targets, but again, Jeudy is likely to miss the next several weeks which could make Fant the No. 1 target in Denver. At the very worst, he's No. 2 – either way, he's sitting in a prime position to make some noise.

In Week 1, Denver threw the ball 36 times and Fant ran a route on 27 of those attempts and was on the field for 29 of those plays. That means Fant was targeted on 26% of the routes that he ran – that's an excellent number and it's a great indicator of future success. He turned his seven targets into six catches for 62 yards. Through Week 1, he ranks seventh among tight ends in air yards.

All the signs point towards Fant joining that tier of tight ends just behind the elites. Based on his usage in Week 1 and with Jeudy's injury, it shouldn't be surprising to see Fant challenge for a top-six finish among tight ends.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Chargers

Alright, I need to come clean. I was not a believer in Tyler Higbee whatsoever, but as always, it's crucial you're able to change your mind in fantasy football because you aren't always going to be right. Admitting defeat can be hard, but sometimes the numbers are so overwhelming you know you just don't have a choice and that makes it easier.

Tyler Higbee played 100% of the snaps with a 23.08% target share in Week 1.

Big boost in value going forward.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 15, 2021

Those numbers right there, eliminate choice. Higbee is going to be a top-10 tight end this year if those usage numbers continue throughout the season. As of right now, there's no reason to think they won't. With Gerald Everett in Seattle, it looks like Higbee is going to have the receiving role at tight end solely to himself.

In Week 1 he ran 25 routes – oddly more than Robert Woods – which is not something I'd expect moving forward, but in either case, it bodes well towards his future fantasy football value. The Rams only threw the ball 26 times, which means he was running a route on almost every single pass play. Remember when we talked about chasing opportunity, this is exactly what I mean. That is a lot of opportunity to garner targets for Higbee and it's likely the Rams will pass the ball a bit more than they did in Week 1.

He made the most of it too, turning that opportunity into six targets, five catches and 68 yards. With Matthew Stafford behind center, this Rams' passing attack is going to be a lot better than we're used to seeing it when Goff was the driver. While Cooper Kupp has several seasons of being an excellent red-zone weapon, Robert Woods has not been. If Higbee is the No. 3 target for the Rams between the 20-yard lines and bumps up to the No. 2 tight end in the red zone, fantasy managers are going to be very happy with their investment.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Pitts really shouldn't have to be talked about, but after all the hype around him during the offseason, he came out of the gate a bit slow. Do not fret. Everything fantasy managers wanted Pitts to be, he was in Week 1. The production will follow.

TE target share leaders after Week 1

1. Darren Waller, 35% 👀
2. Adam Trautman, 30%
3. Kyle Pitts, 24%
4. Tyler Higbee, 23%
5. Noah Fant, 22%
6. Travis Kelce, 21%
7. George Kittle, 20%

Everyone else sub 20%

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 15, 2021

Pitts was tied for second in routes ran for the Falcons in Week 1. He was used more frequently in the slot than Russell Gage, who everyone expected to be the Falcons' primary slot receiver. All of that is excellent news moving forward. If Pitts is routinely being lined up in the slot and receiving seven targets a week – second-most among all Falcons players – the fantasy points will follow.

He racked up 60 air yards, which was seventh among tight ends with at least three targets. His athleticism is going to be a big problem for defenses as they continue to have to focus on Calvin Ridley on the outside. If he continues to see that kind of use in the slot, he's going to start eating defenses up. It's not a matter of if, but of when and I would expect it starts sooner than later.

Commanding a 24% target share right out of the gate is excellent news. He's currently pacing at 120 targets over 17 games. I generally don't like pace stats after Week 1 for obvious reasons, but here it makes sense. It's not unreasonable considering the skilled players Atlanta has that Pitts continues to see 6–8 targets per game. 120 targets are plenty for him to finish in the top-five. If you spent up to get Pitts on your fantasy roster, know better days are ahead.

Other Options

Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints

Johnson scored two touchdowns in this one, but it was Trautman who played the bigger role. We never want to totally dismiss touchdowns at the tight end position, but unless Johnson's role and playing time increases, it's a long-shot bet to see that kind of production continue. Trautman played 84% of the offensive snaps, while Johnson was at just 19%. Trautman ran 18 routes in Week 1, compared to Johnson's nine. Trautman appears to be the one fantasy managers want to roster at this time.

Trautman's overall target share was encouraging, but fantasy managers should stash Johnson, as well. He was a former wide receiver and he's making the switch to tight end. Sean Payton is an offensive genius and we all know what he did with Jimmy Graham. Johnson is an athletic freak and out-snapped Trautman in terms of plays ran out of the slot, which is the ideal position fantasy managers want their tight ends lining up.

This is definitely a duo who fantasy managers should keep their eyes on. Trautman is the guy right now, but Johnson should be stashed in deeper leagues as an upside play. The target hierarchy in New Orleans is completely wide open right now. We know Alvin Kamara is going to get his, but after that, it's anyone's guess.

Pharaoh Brown, Houston Texans

No one wants to roster a Texan that isn't Brandin Cooks, I get it. I certainly wouldn't want to either. It's most definitely not the way most envision their fantasy football season going – rostering a Texan not named Brandin Cooks – but he deserves a mention here nonetheless. His usage was a little backwards than what we'd expect. While Brown played 59 of the total 78 snaps – more than Jordan Akins who played 47 – it was Akins who ran more routes (21 to 17) and played on more passing plays (26 to 24). We'd like to see Brown running more routes than Akins moving forward and based on their production in Week 1, that should happen since Brown was way more effective.

Akins saw only two targets and was unable to reel either of them in. Meanwhile, Brown saw five targets and caught four of them for 80 yards. He was fourth in total air yards among tight ends. The best part about this is Brown was able to put up this kind of stat line with the Texans working from a surprisingly positive game script. It might be the only time that happens all year. Well, until they play the Jaguars again that is.

Fantasy managers should expect the Texans to throw the ball more moving forward, which will increase Brown's opportunity. He's certainly someone to keep an eye on because after Brandin Cooks the target hierarchy is completely unknown and up for grabs. If Brown can settle in as Tyrod Taylor's most-trusted No. 2 target, he'll be fantasy viable most weeks as the Texans are routinely going to be playing from behind.

Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Once Henry signed in New England, fantasy managers began to get very uneasy about both of their fantasy prospects. After all, it's very rare for a team to have two fantasy-viable tight ends, so the skepticism is totally justified, but this is not your typical team. The receivers for the Patriots are significantly lacking in talent and it wouldn't be surprising if a receiver does not receive more than 115 targets, which will open up enough work for Smith and Henry to both be playable.

Out of the Patriots' 75 snaps on Sunday, Smith played on 55 of them with Henry right behind at 54. The Patriots called 39 pass plays – Henry played on 28 of them with Smith at 27. While most fantasy managers expected Henry and Smith to be the focal part of their passing offense, that wasn't the case in Week 1. Based on their usage and routes run, it's hard to believe that was even the plan, which certainly is concerning. Henry ran 23 routes and Smith was at 19. The percentage of routes run vs how many pass plays were called is alarming. Fantasy managers would have hoped both these numbers to be in the 30s. Smith didn't even run a route on 50% of their pass plays. Still, Jonnu was the third most targeted Patriot, garnering six looks from the rookie, Mac Jones. He caught five of them for 42 yards.

Henry was even less productive, only seeing three looks. He caught all of them for 31 yards. That gave Smith a 13.2% target share and Henry just a 7.9% target share. Neither tight end will be playable on a week-to-week basis with those kinds of usage numbers. If these numbers continue to carry on, both tight ends might find their way onto the waiver wire pretty quickly.

Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers

The ageless wonder put himself on the fantasy radar after a really nice game with his new team. While Cook split snaps with Donald Parham almost 50/50 – Cook played 58% of the snaps and Parham played 51% – it was Cook who received the most work in the passing game. Cook was on the field for 36 of Herbet's 47 drop-backs and ran routes on 31 of them. Parham on the other hand found himself on the field for only 21 of the Chargers' passing plays and ran just 14 routes. The increased opportunity led to Cook out-targeting Parham, 8 to 1. Cook was able to catch five of them and turned them into 56 yards.

On an even more positive note, Cook had 67 air yards, which ranked third among tight ends. The eight targets he received were also tied for third. The first game of the 2021 season was certainly a positive one for Jared Cook. If there's one thing to watch out for, it's Austin Ekeler. He did not receive a single target in Week 1, a trend that is highly unlikely to continue. The increased passing volume Ekeler receives will likely have a direct negative correlation on Cook's. Still, in deeper leagues or leagues where you need to start two tight ends, Cook showed enough in Week 1 to be a viable option. The Chargers will likely employ one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league, which should give Cook ample opportunities throughout the season.

Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans

The entire Tennessee offense was absent Week 1. Not a single player put forth a fantasy-relevant performance, but the hope is this offense is just far too talented for that to continue. Firkser was a player a lot of fantasy managers had high hopes for, especially after Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis left in free agency. Those aspirations were dashed a little bit when Julio Jones came to town, but there was still optimism he could become the No. 3 target in the passing game. Week 1 was not a good start.

Out of 64 offensive snaps, Firkser only played on 31 of them, not even 50%. Geoff Swaim was not too far behind him with 25 snaps. And MyCole Pruitt even played on 15 snaps. That's not ideal by any means. If there's a silver lining it's that Firkser appears to be the preferred receiving tight end out of the trio. He was on the field for 29 pass plays, while Swaim was only on the field for 14 of them and Pruitt did not play on a single passing play. Firkser ran 27 routes, while Swaim ran only 12, so there is hope that better days might be ahead. He received four targets and caught three of them for 19 yards. He was tied for fourth for most targets with Jeremy McNichols. This passing attack is likely to be funneled through AJ Brown and Julio Jones, which will likely leave Firkser and the remaining pieces fighting for the scraps.

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