Thursday Night Football Starts and Sits: Patriots vs Rams

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Patriots vs Rams Thursday game in Week 14. Ellis Johnson analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.

Two of the league’s hottest teams face each other this Thursday in a rematch of Super Bowl 53. Winning five of their last six games, the Patriots travel to the City of Angels to take on the red-hot Rams. Both teams have huge playoff implications resting on this matchup. 

At 6-6, the Patriots find themselves in unfamiliar territory, sitting third in their division and two games out of a playoff spot. The Rams, on the other hand, will look to build on their huge divisional win against the Cardinals last week and take advantage of the Giants' upset against the Seahawks. Another win this week would put the Rams in control atop of the division with sights set for the playoffs.

Not only is this a fantastic NFL matchup, but we also have plenty of fantasy pieces in this game. We are spoiled this week with a double-header on Monday, a Tuesday game, and this Thursday match. Get ready for your first (or second) week of fantasy playoffs with this week’s RotoBaller Thursday Night preview. 

New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams

Monday 12/10 @ 8:20 PM EST

Notable Injuries:

• Nick Folk (K, NEP) - Back - Questionable
• J.C. Jackson (DB, NEP) - Hip/Knee - Questionable
• Cam Newton (QB, NEP) - Abdomen - Questionable
• Ryan Izzo (TE, NEP) - Hamstring/Hand - Questionable
• Cam Akers (RB, LAR) - Shoulder - Questionable
• Brian Allen (OL, LAR) - Knee - Questionable

Must Starts

Robert Woods (WR, LAR): Bobby Trees has quietly been the WR-10 over the season (Half PPR). Stringing together three games of 10+ targets and 80+ yards, he's heating up at the perfect time for fantasy managers. The most impressive part of this stretch was that he caught 12 of 15 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown against cornerback Carlton Davis and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His target share and previous success against tough corners are enough for me to make him a “must start” option. I would start Woods with confidence as a mid-tier WR-2. 

Rams Defense: Being the only team that is top three for both the fewest passing and rushing yards allowed per game, I think it is fair to say that the Rams have been the best defense in the league. Ramsey has truly been a shut-down shadow corner this year. So far some of his greatest performances include holding D.K. Metcalf to two receptions for 28 yards in Week 10 and DeAndre Hopkins to eight receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown. Pair this with the incredible Aaron Donald up front and you truly have an elite defense. Going against the Patriots who are 22nd in offensive yards per game and 23rd in points per game makes this a fantastic matchup. This might be one of those cases where a defense can carry you to a fantasy playoff victory.

Solid Options

Jared Goff (QB, LAR): So far it has been a widely mediocre QB-15 campaign for Goff. With only one game below double-digit fantasy points and five weeks over 20 points he has been a fairly consistent fantasy producer. However, he also has six weeks between 10 and 16 fantasy points so he hasn’t single-handedly carried fantasy teams to victory. This week he has a tougher matchup going against the Patriots who are allowing the 13th fewest passing yards per game. Knowing that Bill Belichick will find a way to pressure the easily flustered QB, I don’t see a monster game in store for Goff, however, he should be a fine second QB in two-QB leagues. 

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR): After setting the world on fire for the first half of last season, it has been a very underwhelming stretch for the high-upside WR. What is probably most surprising for the prolific red zone weapon is that he has only netted two touchdowns on the year. As a result, this season he has 50% of his games under 10 fantasy points. Ouch. 

While he has been underwhelming, he has still done enough to be the WR-22 on the season. Averaging nine targets a game, Kupp should be started as a “boom-bust” low-end WR-two. I have a good feeling that he finds pay dirt this week and opens the Pie Shop* for the first time since Week 4.

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

Cam Akers (RB, LAR): Just when we thought Darrell Henderson was taking the lead job away from the highly-touted rookie, Akers has regained the spotlight. Scoring in consecutive games and breaking big plays in each, Akers has finally looked to be the talented back they drafted. It would appear that Sean McVay agrees after giving Akers a career-high in both snap percentage and rush attempts last week. With his 21 carries, Akers managed 72 yards and a touchdown while catching his lone target for 22 yards. These 21 carries give me enough optimism to make Akers a “solid-option” against New England’s middle of the pack rush defense.

Unfortunately, this optimism could easily be crushed since Sean McVay still insists that the backfield should be a committee and gives touches to both Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. However, I am still going to recommend Akers as a high-upside, albeit risky RB3 and a fine flex play this week.

Consider Sitting

Unfortunately, this is the largest section of players this week. I’ve tried to look for more potential starts, however, I truly believe that there are no other options to play this week. Here is why:

Cam Newton (QB, NE): The veteran QB has displayed his fantasy resurgence by largely relying on his ground game. With the third-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns at the position, Newton comes into this week as the QB-18. He is always a threat to be a solid fantasy QB but I don’t like his chances in this matchup.

Over the last two weeks, Newton has combined for a total of 153 passing yards and 92 rushing yards. This isn’t great. With WR Jakobi Myers and RB Damien Harris leading the charge against Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and company I don’t see success for the veteran QB this week. I would be surprised if he cracks 20 fantasy points, therefore, I would not mind shooting for higher upside at the position. For example, I would rather play Andy Dalton against his former team or even Baker Mayfield against the Ravens.

Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd (WR, NE): If I am not expecting a big day from Newton, there is no way I see success for his WRs. Of the two, Meyers has been the more productive, netting six targets in each of his last two games. However, with these targets, he only has seven receptions for a combined 67 yards. Byrd has been even worse collecting five receptions for 49 yards over the last two games. It is always a possibility for one of these to break a big play, however, I am not playing that game during the fantasy playoffs. 

Damien Harris (RB, NE): It has been refreshing to see New England consistently use their 2019 third-round pick. With double-digit carries in eight of his nine games this season, it would appear the Patriots are impressed with the young back and his 5.1 yards per carry. I think Harris is a great dynasty asset to acquire this year, however, this week he is going against the team that is allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game.  You can’t rely on him for the fantasy playoffs especially in any PPR format. 

Sony Michel and James White (RB, NE): There is no way I would touch these guys with a 10-foot pole unless I am trying to lose. Neither back can be relied on for either touches or efficient production.

Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR): As quickly as Akers broke onto the scene, Henderson has disappeared. After cracking double-digit carries five times between Week 2-8, Henderson has only surpassed that landmark once in the last five games. This drop-off is directly related to Akers' return and means he can not be relied on for fantasy. He will get a few touches in this game, however, he will have to find the endzone for the second straight week to be fantasy relevant. Considering he has only scored twice since Week 5, I find this unlikely to happen. Bench Henderson in all formats for this week of fantasy playoffs. 

Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett (TE, LAR): Unless your tight end position can be played as a tandem, you can’t look at either of these options. Both tight ends consistently receive four targets and limit their counterpart’s fantasy production. To make things worse, the duo has only combined for five touchdowns on the season which includes Higbee’s three-touchdown performance in Week 2. Please do not put your fantasy season in the hands of either of these tight ends.

The Rams Defense has been incredible lately and their entire team has stepped up in big games all season. We also saw a vintage Belichick game plan last week, taking advantage of another rookie QB. As a result, I expect New England to game plan for the easily-flustered Jared Goff and make this a heavily defensive game.

My picks: Rams -5, Under 45.0

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