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After a solid 7-4 showing last night, I'm ready to get back at it with some action on today's afternoon and evening baseball games. Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Saturday, July 30th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
It’s a lousy day for strikeouts, but we are riding the southpaws today once again and we have three pretty low numbers that I think are very attackable.
Clayton Kershaw o4.5K vs. COL (-140 DK)
Kershaw’s worst start of the season came in Coors, and he only whiffed 4 Rockies that day. But c’mon, this is Clayton Kershaw we are talking about! I expect him to pitch better this evening, and five strikeouts are nothing for a pitcher of his caliber, even in a tough spot on paper.
Ranger Suarez o4.5K vs. PIT (-108 FD)
Lefties against Pittsburgh, right? The only issue is Suarez is not a strikeout pitcher, he relies mainly on groundballs, which is the only reason we are getting this number at these odds. I still think PIT is so bad against lefties that we can bump him up and get him to five today, especially if he pitches a little deeper than usual.
Framber Valdez o5.5K vs. SEA (-150 FD)
Valdez also isn’t technically a K pitcher, but he just struck out 8 Mariners in their last meeting and has had better strikeout numbers this season compared to last year. The projections like Valdez a ton, and he often pitches deep into games which gives him a better chance at hitting his number. It’s juiced up here, but I like pairing this one with Kershaw in a 2-prop parlay to get better odds.
Clayton Kershaw to get a win (+125 DK)
Nestor Cortes to get a win (+115 DK)
I like the Dodgers and Yankees to win and lead throughout, meaning why not bet on Kershaw and Cortes to get the wins, right? The logic here is that we are trying to get better odds on a more specific outcome than if we were to bet the Dodgers ML at -220 or the Yankees at -300 (don’t ever bet those huge money lines, please).
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
TEX ML (-105 DK)
Texas is an underdog on the road again to the Angels, and I am not sure why. Glenn Otto isn’t good, but neither is Angels’ starter Chase Silseth. And the Texas offense is miles better than the Angels’, as they continue to struggle to do anything.
ARI/ATL over 9.5 runs (+100)
This line is already pretty high, but not high enough! The Braves’ offense is a juggernaut and they get Corbin Martin today, a converted reliever who walks a ton of guys and gives up loud contact. But the Snakes should make some noise with their bats, too, as they get Atlanta’s worst starter (at least this season) Ian Anderson. Don’t sleep on Arizona’s offense, they are trending up and this game should have plenty of offense on both sides.
NYY o5.5 runs (+105)
Back on the Yankees here again for their team total, instead of their money line or run line. It took them until late in the game to get there, but boy did they ever last night when they finished with 11 runs. They should smash Heasley today and we were reminded that the KC bullpen can always help us get over the finish line, too.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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