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There are two schools of thought when it comes to drafting a quarterback in fantasy football drafts. One strategy is to grab one of the top-notch passers early like Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, giving you an automatic advantage at a key position.
The other, more common philosophy, is to wait on QB entirely considering how deep the position is. Whatever you decide, it’s important to realize that value still matters wherever you select a quarterback. Here we’ll look at three QBs who are being drafted too high within the position, and may be overvalued based on their ADPs and draft day prices.
Editor's Note: On the contrary, if you want to read about 2015 fantasy football draft sleepers for quarterbacks, and players that are undervalued, be sure to check our running list of ADP values that can return draft day profits and help you dominate your leagues.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Quarterbacks Who Are Being Drafted Too High
Russell Wilson – QB, Seattle Seahawks
Earlier this offseason I was talking up Russell Wilson as a fantastic fantasy QB prospect for 2015, mostly due to the addition of tight end Jimmy Graham. Flash forward two months or so and I’ve pretty much done a 180 based on no other reason than his current average draft position.
Wilson is currently being drafted as a late third/early fourth rounder depending on the size of your league. That’s a little crazy to me when you consider the fact that he only outscored Ben Roethlisberger by 17 fantasy points in 2014. That equates to exactly one-point-per game. For some added comparison, Roethlisberger is going a full two rounds later than Wilson in most leagues. Their ADP should be a lot closer together based on last year’s numbers and the fact that they’re in entirely different offenses.
A lot of Wilson’s fantasy production came from his 849 rushing yards, a feat that no quarterback has ever repeated in back-to-back seasons. Ben had stretches where the Steelers were slinging the ball around the field every chance they got. Wilson doesn’t play in an offense conducive to putting up big passing numbers as the Seahawks are a run first team. Basically, I don’t think you can justify selecting Wilson a full two rounds ahead of the likes of Ben Roethlisberger or even Matt Ryan.
I’m not suddenly anti-Wilson entirely. If he falls to me, great, as he’s developed into an awesome quarterback both in real life and in fantasy. It’s just that I’d rather draft the likes of Frank Gore or Jordan Matthews in the third/fourth round and wait a little longer on QB, especially if I can grab a guy like Ben or Ryan two rounds later.
Tony Romo – QB, Dallas Cowboys
Speaking of waiting on quarterback, Tony Romo is essentially the poster boy for this strategy. Romo is often selected as one of, if not the last, starting QB in a standard sized league. The thing about owning Tony Romo is that what you see is what you get. They don’t refer to his playing style as the Romo Coaster for nothing. He’s going to be sporadic and inconsistent, killing you in some weeks and winning you some others. Personally, I’d rather just avoid that situation entirely.
If I were going to wait on quarterback, I’d rather deal with Tom Brady’s suspension or take my chances on a guy with way more upside than Romo like Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill. At this point in his career, Romo’s ceiling is pretty much capped at the back end of the top 10. Does anyone doubt that Tom Brady is going to put up borderline top-5 numbers when he comes back? Both Eli and Tannehill should continue to improve within their expanding offenses. Romo basically just has Dez Bryant, and there’s no guarantee the running game will back him up as much as it did last year now that DeMarco Murray is gone.
If you’re actually going to wait on QB, commit fully. Don’t bother drafting Romo in round six or seven when you can get Brady in round eight or Eli/Tannehill in round ten. Let someone get trigger-happy on grabbing their backup QB early once they see Tony Romo falling. In the meantime, you’ll be loading up an extra two rounds of running backs and wide receivers.
Colin Kaepernick – QB, San Francisco 49ers
This last overvalued quarterback might seem like cheating, but when I took a look at his ADP I just couldn’t refrain from putting him on this list. Forget what round he’s going in; the simple fact that Colin Kaepernick is being drafted ahead of the likes of Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, and Jay Cutler is absurd.
Like I said, this might be cheating -- but there are leagues out there that start two quarterbacks, as well as deeper leagues where grabbing a backup is important. That’s really where my gripe with Kaepernick comes into playas the 16th QB off the board. The 49ers have undergone a considerable amount of change within their offensive personnel, and to be quite honest with you, no one really expects them to be that good this year. It’s not even like Kaepernick has more upside than the group that follows him either. Sam Bradford could thrive in a Chip Kelly system, Carson Palmer was on his way to being a top-12 fantasy QB prior to injury last season, and Jay Cutler has way better weapons than Kaepernick.
You might be thinking: “Colin Kaepernick’s rushing ability gives him enough upside to draft him over those guys.” In theory, you’re right, but when you actually apply that logic, it’s flawed. Kaepernick finished with 639 rushing yards in 2014, the highest total of his career, yet he still only finished as the 17th best fantasy quarterback. You’re basically banking on another career high in rushing yards if you expect some sort of upside out of him. Take a shot on guys who are actually in productive offenses, and can get you points doing that thing that quarterbacks are actually in the game to do -- throw the ball.
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