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The Cut List – Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 11

Brandin Cooks - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy managers have officially made it through two of the worst bye weeks of the NFL season, but with the injuries piling up, things won't get any easier. This season has been more challenging than any in recent memory. Between the low scoring and the injuries, fantasy managers have often been left having to make some really hard decisions. There has been plenty of talk about the disappointing play of several veteran quarterbacks and that has negatively affected all of their offensive play-makers.

Despite inching closer and closer to our fantasy playoffs, we still have 12 teams who have yet to have their bye. In Week 11, we’ll be without players from the Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Buccaneers.

With so many injuries and bye weeks left, fantasy managers will need to make calculated decisions on who is expendable to their rosters. Let’s look at some of the players you can safely send to the waiver wire for Week 11. We can't touch on every cuttable player, especially for every league size, but we'll cover some of the most cuttable players entering Week 11. As always if you have any specific questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message.

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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 11?

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos – 68% Rostered

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – 58% Rostered

This section has been a revolving door between Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford. In your typical 12-team league, at this stage of the season, where we have a very good idea of who’s who, there really aren’t more than 15 quarterbacks that need to be rostered on a weekly basis.

Using Yahoo!’s rostered percentages, our 15th quarterback would be Trevor Lawrence, and Derek Carr the 16th. Wilson finds himself in that 17th spot, with Stafford No. 21. We are down in the “only can be started in the best kind of matchups” streaming group, and honestly, even then there are question marks. These are the types of players who are simply clogging up rosters.

Marcus Mariota, who is rostered in fewer leagues than both of these veteran signal callers, has more 20+ games this season than Wilson and Stafford combined. So does Daniel Jones for that matter, who is rostered in fewer leagues than Wilson, but just slightly more than Stafford.

On the season, Wilson is averaging 14.6 PPG. Jacoby Brissett, who is rostered in just 15% of Yahoo! Leagues is averaging 14.4 PPG. Stafford is actually averaging fewer PPG than Davis Mills and Zach Wilson. His 11.7 PPG average is just slightly better than Kenny Pickett (11.6) and Baker Mayfield (11.4).

To make matters worse for both of them, they each just lost their No. 1 receiver. Jerry Jeudy of the Broncos is believed to have suffered a muscle strain on his ankle. Information at this time is limited, but if he were to miss time, Wilson would be negatively affected.

For Stafford, Cooper Kupp went down with what is being initially reported as a high ankle sprain, but more testing is still yet to be with. It’s not an understatement to say Kupp has been the Rams’ entire offense and if he’s out for a few weeks, Stafford somehow becomes even more unstartable than he is currently.

 

Running Backs to Cut in Week 11?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs – 90% Rostered

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is nothing more than a bad handcuff on a team that doesn’t want to run the ball. Since Week 5, Edwards-Helaire’s touches have gone from 12 to 9 to 6 to 5 to 0. His playing time since that time, which started at 43% of the team’s snaps in Week 5, has also been on a steady decline. In Week 6 it was 42%, then 27%, then 17%, and just 6% in Week 10. CEH played four total snaps in Week 10.

Nothing else really needs to be said. CEH’s time in Kansas City is done. If you’re wondering how we got here after his “hot” start, we need to remember while he might have been scoring well for fantasy, it was mostly driven by an unsustainable touchdown rate. He has scored 40.5% of his total fantasy points via touchdowns. We received news prior to Week 7 that Isiah Pacheco would be the starter and it’s taken a few weeks for that to show up in the box score, but it’s here now, and with it comes the end of needing to roster Edwards-Helaire.

Nyheim Hines, Buffalo Bills – 69% Rostered

When Nyheim Hines was traded to the Buffalo Bills, fantasy managers were optimistic that he would add another weapon to their already elite passing attack. That, however, has not happened. Not even a little bit. While it’s understandable Hines may have needed a bit of time to learn the playbook, we have passed that point. Christian McCaffrey, after all, learned a decent chunk of the playbook in just two days’ time.

Through two weeks in Buffalo, Hines has played a total of 10 snaps. He played four in Week 9 and just six this past weekend. Many expected him to take James Cook’s role, but Cook is still playing ahead of Hines. There’s time for that to change, but based on the team’s lack of desire to get Hines involved, it seems highly unlikely that even with an increase in playing time, he’s going to become fantasy relevant. In two games, he has zero rush attempts and two targets. He has just one reception for nine yards.

I was intrigued when Hines was traded to Buffalo, but that intrigue quickly washed away. It’s hard to see a pathway to Hines being someone I’d feel confident putting in my starting lineup.

Darrel Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams – 69% Rostered

If you absolutely need a starting running back, by all means, continue rostering Henderson. However, ideally, Henderson is not a starter for you and if he’s not a starter, he can safely be sent to the waiver wire. There’s just no upside here. I understand that he’s a starting running back and you might be thinking, “he’s guaranteed 10 touches every game”, but my question is, “who cares?”

He averages just over 30 rushing yards per game and just over 11 receiving yards per game. The highest half-PPR point total he’s scored this season in games where he does not find the end zone is 9.8. That was all the way back in Week 1 where he caught 5 passes for 26 yards. He has 12 catches in the next 8 games combined. Can you notice the outlier? Outside of Week 1, his next highest score without finding the end zone is 5.6.

His highest output of the season is 12.2. His lowest is 1.7. He has five games with fewer than six points. This is the range of outcomes you’re looking at with Henderson. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, he’ll net you between 1.5-5.5 half-PPR. If he does score a touchdown, he’ll net you 9.5-12.5 points. This is not someone I need to roster.

 

Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 11?

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – 75% Rostered

If you’re in a 12-team or larger league, feel free to continue to roster Brandin Cooks. In that type of setting, he’s not a must-cut player. Although, he’s certainly playing his way into that for 12-team leagues. If Donovan Peoples-Jones is available, I’m making that switch right now.

Cooks wasn’t traded before the deadline and he was subsequently held out of the following game for personal reasons. Then the team stripped him of his “C” for captain. It’s been a rough few weeks for Cooks, but his 2022 season is giving me some really solid Allen Robinson, 2021 vibes.

Through eight games this season, he has just two games with double-digit points in half-PPR scoring. He has just two games with 55 or more yards. He has just one touchdown. In the first two games of the season, he averaged 11 targets per game. Over the last six games, his targets per game average have dropped to 6.33. That’s a big-time concern.

Last year in Houston he was dominating the target share. Since Week 3, that hasn’t been the case. His 6.33 target per game over the last six weeks, equates to just 108 over 17-games. That kind of workload on Houston’s offense with Davis Mills throwing the football eliminates any kind of true upside and the floor in that scenario is lower than you might think. Cooks has more games below five points than he does above 15. He’s not a must-cut in larger leagues, but he’s most certainly a cuttable player.

 

Tight Ends to Cut in Week 11?

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – 71% Rostered

2022 Dawson Knox meet 2021 Robert Tonyan. This was a comparison many fantasy analysts made in the offseason and it was an easy comparison to make. Ten weeks into the season and you can basically copy and paste the Spider-Man meme to it. Knox is running the ninth-most routes per game with just over 27.5 a game, so he’s out there. He’s doing stuff. None of it is translating towards anything close to resembling fantasy success.

His target per route run rate is at just 17%. He’s 26th in targets per game with 4.1, 23rd in receptions per game with 3, and 28th in yards per game with 304. After finishing with nine touchdowns last year, he’s on pace for less than five this season. Despite the electric Buffalo offense which is frequently in the red zone, Knox has just five red zone targets in seven games this season, which doesn’t breed confidence that his touchdown luck will improve this season.

He’s a touchdown-dependent TE2 who will stay on the streaming radar on positive matchups more so because of his offense and quarterback than anything Dawson Knox does. It’s always worrisome when the reasons you like a particular player have nothing to do with the actual player.

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints – 62% Rostered

Sell. Sell. Sell. There is nothing about his PPG average that is sustainable based on the workload that he’s getting. It’s not even close. Buying Taysom Hill is the utmost definition of chasing yesterday’s points. Even worse than that, it’s chasing yesterday’s touchdowns. 41.6% of his fantasy points came in one game. 48.5% of his total points have come from touchdowns. He plays 16 snaps a game. Any fantasy-relevant tight end will have almost 10 or more snaps played than that at halftime of their games. Trevon Wesco plays the same number of snaps as Hill does. If you’re wondering who that is, that’s kind of the point.

He averages less than a target per game. He averages two yards receiving per game. He runs between 4-5 routes per game. He’s currently averaging 4.7 carries per game. That’s fewer than Chase Edmonds. He has seven red zone carries. That’s fewer than one per game. His seven red zone carries are tied with Mark Ingram. He has just four carries inside the 10-yard line, which is one every other game. His appeal is that he’s different, but really, you’re just starting a really bad backup running back at your TE spot.

 

Hold On

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders – 55% Rostered

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the rookie running back, but fantasy managers should be holding. Over his last four games (not including Week 10), Robinson is averaging 15.5 touches per game.

The Commanders have a great schedule down the stretch, beginning with Houston in Week 11 and Atlanta in Week 12. After those two easy games, they’ll face off against the Giants in Week 13, followed up by their bye in Week 14, and another contest against the Giants in Week 15. They’ll have a very tough matchup against the 49ers in Week 16 and finish the fantasy football season against the Browns in Week 17.

The Texans have given up the most points to running backs this season with 30.2 half-PPR PPG. The Falcons have given up the 10th-most points to running backs at 21.4 PPG, and the Browns have given up the second-most points to running backs at 27.6. The Giants have given up 18.2 PPG to running backs, which is just 21st-most, but that should be a contest where the game will be close and the Commanders can stay committed to their running game.

Robinson has three amazing matchups left on his schedule, two decent ones, and one awful one. However, if he continues receiving 15.5 touches per game, he should be a solid starter in five of his remaining six games. He’ll likely flirt with an RB2 ranking in games against the Texans, Falcons, and Browns and receive a flex ranking in his two contests against the Giants. With his touch totals and remaining schedule, fantasy managers should definitely hold.

 

On the Hot Seat

Chase Claypool, Chicago Bears – 70% Rostered

Much like Nyheim Hines above, fantasy managers can give Chase Claypool a pass for limited production and playing time in his first week with a new club. He was traded before Week 9 and proceeded to play just 35% of the team’s snaps in his first appearance for the Bears. Despite the limited playing time, the team made a real conscious effort to get him the ball. He finished with 6 targets, 2 receptions, and 13 yards.

The production ended up being minimal, but his target share was encouraging and then Week 10 happened. Everything got worse. Despite the extra week with his new team to better learn the playbook, Claypool’s playing time actually decreased. After playing 35% of the team’s snaps in Week 9, he played just 31% in Week 10. That isn’t a drastic difference, but we’re not moving in the right direction.

He finished with just 2 targets, 1 reception, and 8 yards. Even more concerning was that not one, not two, not three, but four (!!!) receivers ran more routes than Claypool this past weekend. By now, everyone knows about the limited passing volume in Chicago, so if Claypool is to be someone fantasy managers can somewhat rely on, he needs to have a full-time role. He’s not even close to that.

Fantasy managers might be willing to give him one more week following the in-season trade, while others may not be able to wait that long. Claypool is certainly a cuttable player in smaller leagues, and right now he’s on the fence in 12-team leagues and larger.

 

Sell, Sell, Sell

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins – 91% Rostered

Raheem Mostert was listed as a sell candidate last week and he finds himself on the same list again this week. Luckily, he’s given fantasy managers another golden opportunity to do so after having found the end zone again in Week 10, but this backfield is trending in the wrong direction for Mostert.

Despite Jeff Wilson Jr. having just been traded to the Dolphins prior to Week 9, he still proceeded to log more snaps than Mostert, receive more touches than Mostert, and finish with more yards than Mostert. Week 10 just exacerbated the problem, but the touchdown might very well cover it up long enough to sell.

Wilson played 42 snaps to Mostert’s 19. Wilson ran 17 routes to Mostert’s 9 and received 17 carries to Mostert’s 8. He managed to finish with 65 rushing yards and a score, but if this kind of utilization continues, Mostert will need to be hyper-efficient to make his fantasy managers happy.

Since taking Chase Edmonds' job in Miami, Mostert has been valued as an RB2. His touchdowns the past two weeks may very well keep him valued as an RB2 by some, but his utilization with Wilson in Miami has been more of a flex play. Without a touchdown the past two weeks, he would’ve scored 2.6 and 10.7 half-PPR points.

Now, we’re not going to take away those touchdowns. He earned those, but how many touchdowns can fantasy managers reasonably expect if he’s touching the ball just 8-12 times per game? I’d recommend seeing if you can cash in on his perceived RB2 value right now when he should really be viewed as just a flex.

 



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