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Nate Green's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 8 of the season.
Welcome back to the Cut List. In recent weeks we switched up the format of this article a bit, to cover a larger pool of players and to discuss trends being seen by fantasy baseball managers across a large number of leagues.
This article, for three weeks now, reviews several of ESPN's 25 most dropped players in the past week and, in order from most dropped to least (except most injured players), determines how reasonable that course of action has been. (Some players near the bottom of the ESPN and Cut lists may have shifted around between writing and publication.)
Stats are thru August 20. Recommendations are for mixed leagues -- redraft, unless otherwise noted, as keeper leagues have their own rules. (As do AL/NL-only, where players rostered this widely are going to have homes.) You can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickups List and free app.
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Chris Bassitt (SP, OAK)
Bassitt's 4.96 xFIP in 2020 is in line with 2019 (4.61) and career (4.64) marks. This is who he is. As ESPN's most-dropped player this week, it's a simple case.
Verdict: Drop. He may be acceptable in 15+ depending on how much you need wins compared to any other stat.
Kyle Freeland (SP, COL)
Freeland, coming off two bad starts and facing San Diego again next, just doesn't offer the strikeouts either. Even with a 4.08 xFIP this year, he's only fanned a career-low 15.0% of batters faced. His WHIP is also huge. Even though Colorado has mostly road games remaining, he's an easy pass.
Verdict: Drop.
Randy Dobnak (SP, MIN)
Dobnak strikes out even fewer batters than Freeland, but Dobnak still entered Friday with a 4.29 xFIP. It was somewhat odd to see mass drops preceding a start against Detroit, although they have a fairly average offense this year, and he earned a W with five shutout innings and four strikeouts. It sets him up well for a matchup against the Cardinals next but Dobnak is the type of pitcher fantasy managers have to be careful with in shallow leagues.
Update: Dobnak got the win against Detroit on Friday, tossing five innings with four strikeouts and allowing just five baserunners.
Verdict: Hold for at least next start.
Taylor Williams (RP, SD)
Williams will likely be back on a big league roster soon and has been a modestly successful reliever in his 86-inning career based on FIP and xFIP, but they're not spectacular as relievers go. With no saves likely even when back, these drops are just fine.
Verdict: Drop.
Cole Sulser (RP, BAL)
Just lost a closing gig and struggles all over the stat sheet--walks, strikeouts, ERA, FIP, you name it.
Verdict: Drop.
Garrett Richards (SP, SD)
Richards was brutal on August 27 against the Mariners before recovering with a great but shortened start at Coors Field. Next come the Athletics, about half of whose lineup we've explored given their recent lack of games. Taking Richards' overall season into account, he has a 4.63 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and 4.52 xFIP. More broadly he's only thrown 182 1/3 innings since 2016 due to several injuries. That kind of perseverance is a good story, but Richards' 9.5 BB% is not a good matchup with the walk-happy A's, before adding in the overall ERA and estimators.
Verdict: Drop. Possible hold and sit in 15 teamers.
Robbie Grossman (OF, OAK)
Grossman has been great this year with 4 HR and 4 SB on a .267/.422/.558 slash line. He's over-performed his contact but it's still solid (82nd percentile xwOBA), and the main problem was how many games Oakland missed of late. But they were back playing on Friday and so if you held Grossman through all of that, there's no reason to drop now.
Verdict: Hold, and see if he's available in 12+.
Asdrubal Cabrera (IF, WAS)
Cabrera has carved out a surprisingly solid career since 2007. He's collapsed to replacement level this year, however. His athleticism at 34 is almost shot (eighth percentile sprint speed). Surprisingly, however, Cabrera is right in line with where he's been since 2016 with a .333 xwOBA. He offers good positional flexibility in the infield (everything but SS) and for now continues to hit in the top four of the Washington lineup. In deeper leagues you might want to buy low and see where this goes especially if you need infield help.
Verdict: Hold in 14+ or 12+ with CI/MI spots.
Jesus Aguilar (1B, MIA)
It's been a tough slog for Aguilar after his 2018 breakout. Like Cabrera, Aguilar's 2020 Statcast numbers are better than his slash line would suggest (.338 xwOBA), but unlike Cabrera, Aguilar doesn't have positional flexibility. With Aguilar recently returned from a back injury, it's okay to hold in deep leagues where you haven't dropped yet, but there's little incentive to go picking him up if he's on waivers until he shows that the injury isn't affecting him.
Verdict: Status quo.
Frankie Montas (SP, OAK)
Montas has not been the same since his 80-game drug suspension in mid-2019. His first five starts after that, one last year and his first four this year, were pretty good. His last three starts: 9 2/3 innings, 18 earned runs, 11/9 K/BB and a .404/.491/.723 line against. His velocity has been fine at 96 mph, so the problem lies elsewhere. He doesn't have many starts left to fix things and Houston next isn't the best matchup.
Verdict: Okay to drop in 10-teamers; hold but sit on the bench in anything deeper.
Adrian Houser (SP, MIL)
Houser hasn't had a quality start since August 5, his second start of the season. He's allowed a home run every third fly ball this season, hence the 4.97 ERA and 4.92 FIP, but that huge rate means just a 3.80 xFIP. While there's a lot going in his favor--batters have a negative launch angle off him, too--he still has a low strikeout rate (16.1%) that will bring down the numbers even if the ball stays in the yard. Houser gets Detroit next, where he's a good bet in deeper leagues.
Verdict: Stream in 14+.
Mark Canha (OF, OAK)
As with Grossman, Canha got dropped because of Oakland's postponements. With three homers, three steals and a .268/.401/.429 line he's been similar to Grossman that way as well. It's slightly weaker numbers, but give it the same recommendation for a more widely rostered player.
Verdict: Hold at this point.
David Peralta (OF, ARI)
Peralta, who hit 30 home runs in 2018, has seen his power dissipate to just two home runs and a .382 SLG in 2020. Still Arizona's cleanup hitter, he's missed two games in September already. Peralta always offers a solid batting average and has 23 RBI in 37 games, but you won't get much in the other three stats this year.
Verdict: Drop in 10, bench in 12, hold in 14+, all subject to category needs.
Stephen Piscotty (OF, OAK)
Another Oakland A, this one with 5 HR, 2 SB, .262/.304/.458. The lack of walks means someone who isn't seeing the ball well as his aforementioned teammates, but this is also a perfectly fine profile that took a hit from Oakland's long layoff. Piscotty is on the fewest rosters of the three because of a weak 2019, and the 2020 isn't so impressive that he's a must-get in all areas. However, there's simply no reason to cut any of these players if you still roster them given that the layoff is over.
Verdict: Hold.
Austin Nola (C, SD)
Nola had an interesting week, traded from Seattle to San Diego on Sunday, joining the new club on Monday, then not playing until Thursday. San Diego also traded for Jason Castro, so perhaps some anticipated too much of a time share to make either valuable. With a 92nd percentile xBA and 80th percentile xwOBA, however, he's been one of this season's most valuable catchers and should be solid ROS.
Verdict: Hold or look to pick up if dropped.
Triston McKenzie (SP, CLE)
McKenzie had a great first career start and a less great second. Then, presumably after several had dropped him, he was great in his third start against the Royals. Hopefully you weren't someone who got left with just the bad start, which wasn't particularly bad, either. McKenzie missed all of 2019 but the early returns in 2020 are exciting, including a strikeout of a full 33.3% of batters faced with just 7% walks.
Verdict: Hold, or pick up for a rematch against Kansas City coming up.
J.D. Davis (3B, NYM)
Although Davis's batting average has fallen from .307 to .274 and he hasn't stolen a base, the overall .274/.390/.427 line is good for a wRC+ of 130. Citi Field isn't as pitcher-friendly in 2020 as in years past and Statcast has expected closer to a .505 slugging rate for Davis. He's also walking more than ever. There are reasons to be optimistic about Davis the rest of the way.
Verdict: Hold.
Joey Bart (C, SF)
Bart is someone to be excited about long-term, but his .225/.326/.300 line in 46 PA so far in 2020 has left managers wanting more. Bart hit .316/.368/.544 at Double-A in 2019, but with three strikeouts for every walk, so it's not surprising to see a 16-2 K-BB ratio at MLB this year, especially with no Triple-A in between. Perhaps he's someone to wait until 2021 for the breakout.
Verdict: Drop.
Tommy La Stella (IF, OAK)
Yet another Oakland player, this time in the infield (with the same 1B/2B/3B eligibility as Cabrera). It seems like everyone on Oakland walks a ton, and La Stella is no exception with a .265/.361/.461 slash line. If he was on a roster in your league now, he should be on one now.
Verdict: Hold or pick up if dropped. But if he's been on the wire all year, your league is probably too shallow.
James Karinchak (RP, CLE)
Karinchak has been exceptional in 18 innings this year but will not be getting saves as long as Brad Hand remains successful. Still, Karinchak is someone to hold for ratios. If you need saves or wins more than ratios, he can go.
Verdict: Hold or drop depending on your team's pitching stats situation.
Other Drops To Consider
Mike Moustakas (3B, CIN)
Although he's still an everyday player, Moustakas has been rough this year, with a .319 xwOBA and just one barrel. The raw numbers--a .214 average, 15 R+RBI, two home runs--follow from that. In shallow leagues you probably can't wait much longer for the power to return.
Josh Bell (1B, PIT)
Although he's still an everyday player, Bell has been rough this year, with a .297 xwOBA and too many strikeouts with relatively, for him, few walks. (The verbatim tracking with Moustakas goes away given Bell's seven barrels.) Bell batted sixth on Friday in both games of a double-header after being entrenched as a cleanup hitter, so Pittsburgh management sees him struggling too. To pick up the verbatim tracking again: In shallow leagues you probably can't wait much longer for the power to return.
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