The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who To Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 4)

April 20, 2025

The Cut List for Week 4 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 4 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players who are worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially this early in the season.

As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Jonathan India - 2B/3B/OF, Kansas City Royals - 50% rostered

It felt like India needed a fresh start at the end of last season. So when he was traded to the Royals, there was renewed optimism that he could build on what has been a solid, if not spectacular, career to date. That optimism has already begun to dwindle.

After 19 games, India is hitting .219/.329/.274 with no home runs, four RBI, five runs, and no stolen bases. The Royals as a team have disappointed, currently ranking tied-28th in the league for runs scored (63). Only two Royals hitters with at least 25 plate appearances have a wRC+ of 100 or better.

India's 64 wRC+ ranks seventh among his teammates. So we can't blame his struggles on Kansas City. They haven't helped India, but the same can be said about India not helping the Royals. It's not entirely doom and gloom for India. His Statcast Profile does offer a glimpse of some positivity.

India's expected numbers and quality of contact numbers aren't bad. They're predominantly around league average, except his Barrel percentage. The standout is India's plate discipline. This isn't anything new, given his 12.6 BB percentage last year ranked in the 97th percentile. That is why India continues to bat leadoff.

Verdict: India's fantasy value lies in points leagues that reward walks and punish strikeouts. In deeper leagues, his multi-positional eligibility offers flexibility. While I have no doubt India's numbers will improve, there will be better options on the waiver wire in standard leagues.

Max Muncy - 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers 48% rostered

It's too soon to say for sure that this is the beginning of the end for Muncy. You could argue that last year signaled that. However, the signs aren't great for a late-career renaissance. Like India, I do expect Muncy's numbers to improve. However, there's still a significant issue with rostering him.

Muncy's batting average will hurt your team. He's got a .209/.335/.434 slash line since the start of the 2022 season (1,513 plate appearances). Even if Muncy can get a bit nearer to his .234 xBA (expected batting average), it will still drag down your team's overall batting average.

If he hits ~.200, Muncy needs to have ~30 home runs, ~85 RBI, and ~85 runs. Muncy hit 36 homers in 2023 (135 games) and 15 in 2024 (73 games). So reaching 30 homers this year isn't beyond the realms of possibility. But the early signs suggest it's not looking very likely.

After 20 games, Muncy remains homerless and has just four RBI and four runs. Hitting seventh, even in the Dodgers' lineup, won't help with that. It's still a small sample, but Muncy is hitting .100/.208/.150 against left-handed pitchers (LHP). That will ensure he sits against some lefties as well.

Verdict: Unless you need power and can afford to take a hit in your batting average, Muncy is only a deeper league option. There are too many knocks on Muncy. After missing three months with an oblique strain last year, even his health isn't as assured as it has been in previous seasons.

Hold For Now

Marcus Semien - 2B, Texas Rangers - 93% rostered

You can argue that Semien and Muncy can be put in the same boat. Both are 34 years old. Both are off to putrid starts to the season. They are also coming off seasons of decline. But in Semien's case, I'm more optimistic that he can still provide fantasy value in 2025.

With a .158 BABIP, we can expect to see the batting average creep up. The big issue for Semien has been groundballs. His 46.6 GB percentage (ground-ball rate) is considerably higher than his career 38.0 GB percentage. He has still been hitting the ball hard as of late. Just not consistently enough.

Marcus Semien had batted balls of 110 mph and 102.2 mph tonight. Neither resulted in a hit. The one that did? 64.7 mph exit velo. Baseball.

— kennedi landry (@kennlandry) April 17, 2025

One thing Semien has consistently shown is reliability. This is his fourth season with the Rangers, and Semien has only missed five games. Going back to 2018, Semien has played a total of 1,038 games out of a possible 1,053. And seven of those 15 missed games came in the shortened 2020 season.

Historically, Semien has been a slow starter. If we look at his monthly numbers throughout his career, Semien's 94 wRC+ in April is the lowest of any month. As a Major Leaguer, Semien has a .249/.314/.414 slash line in the first halves of seasons and .260/.331/.467 in the second halves.

As frustrating as Semien has been so far, this is nothing new. In 2022, Semien ended April with a .157/.226/.217 slash line. He ended the year hitting .248/.304/.429 with 26 homers, 83 RBI, 101 runs, and 25 steals. While I'm not suggesting we see the same numbers this year, we should give Semien more time.

Willson Contreras - C/1B, St. Louis Cardinals - 90% rostered

After an injury-ravaged 2024 season saw Contreras limited to 84 games, news that he would be moved to first base permanently was met with joy from the fantasy community. Here we had a catcher-eligible player who would be in the lineup almost every day as a first baseman.

Volume is important when it comes to catchers. We are yet to see that volume turn into production. After 20 games, Contreras is hitting .152/.212/.241 with one homer, seven RBI, eight runs, and one steal. Even with Ivan Herrera on the injured list (IL), Contreras still hasn't been used behind the plate.

We did see signs of life last week. In a four-game stretch, Contreras went 6-for-18 with his solitary home run and stolen base coming in that run. Contreras followed that with three consecutive hitless appearances. As annoying as that inconsistency is, we're still looking at a very small sample.

Although it's not something we can quantify, Contreras moving to first base permanently may have an impact on his hitting. Before this season, Contreras had played nine games at first base in the Majors. After almost a decade of being a catcher, his entire routine will have changed.

Learning a new position isn't easy, so we can cut Contreras some slack with that. Given his consistent production over the years, Contreras also warrants a longer leash. We can still expect 2023-type numbers from him this season.

On the Hot Seat

Mark Vientos - 3B, New York Mets - 83% rostered

Following a breakout 2024 campaign that saw Vientos hit 27 homers in 111 games, the Mets' third baseman was a top-100 pick in drafts. In the opening weeks of the 2025 season, Vientos has looked anything but a top-100 pick.

Vientos is hitting .167/.259/.306 with two homers, six RBI, seven runs, and no steals (20 games). Like so many at this stage of the season, his lowly BABIP (.185) suggests that we'll see improved numbers as the season rolls on. However, upon examining Vientos' numbers, one thing did stand out.

He's been more passive at the plate so far this year. Vientos' 46.1 Swing percentage is down from last year (49.9 Swing percentage in 2024). However, he has made contact more frequently. Last year, Vientos had a 68.0 percent Contact percentage. This year, he has a 72.5 Contact percentage. Again, this is a small sample, but still noteworthy.

If we examine his 'Swing Take Profile', we can see that Vientos is showing some passivity at the plate. In 2024, Vientos swung at 75 percent of pitches in the heart of the zone and 56 percent of pitches in the shadow area. He also had a +7 run value on pitches in the heart of the zone last year.

If we focus solely on pitches in the zone, Vientos is still more aggressive than the league average. His 67.9 Z-Swing percentage (percentage of pitches swung at inside the strike zone) is tied 58th highest among 172 qualified hitters.

Vientos' 81.5 Z-Contact percentage (percentage of pitches made contact when swinging at pitches in the strike zone) ranks 128th. Last year, Vientos had a 78.2 Z-Contact percentage. So while he has improved at making contact on pitches in the strike zone, he's still below league average.

I remember a similar thing with Gunnar Henderson in 2023. Fantasy managers were concerned about his slow start. A look at his numbers showed he was being too passive at the plate, and it was worth holding him. Fair to say that worked out well.

It's also notable that Vientos has seen a higher rate of fastballs this year (50.5 percent) than last year (47.2 percent). Vientos had a .420 wOBA against fastballs last year and a .293 wOBA this year. This makes it seem more likely that his struggles are more small-sample noise than significant regression.

Vientos was drafted higher than perhaps he should have been, based on 111 games in 2024. But power was his calling card while working his way through the Minor Leagues. Vientos was riding a six-game hitting streak, including home runs in back-to-back games to start their weekend series with the Cardinals.

He's also hit two doubles in that time. However, he left yesterday's game early due to groin discomfort. While Vientos downplayed the issue, he will sit out Sunday's game as we await more news on the injury. Hopefully, it is minor and Vientos can continue his recent upturn in performances early next week.

Providing he doesn't miss much time, Vientos could still end April with a handful of homers to his name. That would certainly appease fantasy managers. It's worth giving Vientos more time to prove last year's breakout wasn't a fluke while we await more news on his groin issue.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or over on the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Triston Casas - 1B, Boston Red Sox - 77% rostered

It feels like every offseason, the Casas hype-train swings into action. Every offseason, I'm the 'Debbie Downer' who can't see a Casas breakout coming. It's far too early to take a victory lap, but Casas is once again the chagrin for the fantasy managers who drafted him.

Unlike some other sluggers, Casas doesn't have huge differences in his numbers against LHP and RHP. He's a career .248/.363/.466 hitter against lefties and .242/.344/.453 hitter against righties. His opposite-field homer against southpaw Keegan Akin was a pertinent reminder of that.

Some serious oppo power from Triston Casas for his first HR of the year! pic.twitter.com/iqz5F0ZMQe

— MLB (@MLB) April 3, 2025

The problem continues to be a lack of contact. Casas' 69.9 Contact percentage ranks 151st among 172 qualified hitters. His 79.8 Z-Contact percentage (percentage of times contact is made at pitches swung at in the strike zone) ranked 147th. The power won't matter until Casas can make more consistent contact.

Despite that, Casas has cut his strikeout rate down. After having a 31.7 K percentage in 2024, Casas has a 25.3 K percentage so far in 2025. That's still in the 32nd percentile. There seem to be too many holes in Casas' hitting to have faith he'll put it all together soon.

There's been no shortage of undrafted first basemen having hot starts to the season. You should be wary of picking up any hitter due to a hot couple of weeks. But until Casas proves he is a solid source of power, he's someone I would be actively looking at upgrading on in shallower leagues.

Alec Bohm - 3B, Philadelphia Phillies - 77% rostered

At this stage of his career, no one should be expecting more than 20 homers from Bohm. He's only reached that total once (in 2023) and has averaged 16 home runs over the last three seasons. The one thing Bohm has been able to do is hit for a high average and ultimately, drive in runs.

Between 2022 and 2024, Bohm had a .278 batting average and 266 RBI. Only 23 hitters have driven in more runs than Bohm in those three years. The concern about his RBI total regressing comes from the fact that Bohm has already slipped down the Phillies' batting order.

After starting the season hitting between the number two and four spots, Bohm has hit in the bottom half of the batting order over the last 10 games. With the way the Phillies are performing, it will take an injury or major upturn in performance for Bohm to return to the heart of the lineup.

Bohm will still hit ~15 home runs and end the season with a batting average over .260. But that isn't enough. Bohm is only a deeper league option with the likely drop in RBI this year. While third base is under scrutiny this week, better options will still be available to you in most leagues.

Jackson Holliday - 2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles - 60% rostered

After failing to impress in his first taste of the Majors last year, Holliday is showing signs of life this year. He's hitting .228/.254/.386 with two homers, eight RBI, five runs, and one stolen base. At this point, it's important to remember that Holliday is 21 years old.

We shouldn't expect too much from Holliday. It's promising that he's been better than in 2024, when he hit .189/.255/.311 in 60 games. Holliday also made some history when homering earlier this week.

At 21 years and 133 days old, Jackson Holliday is the youngest player in Orioles/Browns franchise history at the time of his second career grand slam

Surpassing Cal Ripken Jr, 22y 323d

h/t @EliasSports https://t.co/pQjkM63FnH

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) April 17, 2025

When you drafted Holliday, you did so because of his upside. Holliday was a consensus top-3 prospect in all of baseball last year. Holliday should also act as a reminder that potential doesn't equal immediate production. That's not to say he can't have a solid 2025 season.

The one major concern with Holliday is the potential logjam on the Orioles' roster and the platoon role he appears to have. He's sat against the last three LHP the Orioles have faced, in favor of Jorge Mateo. We don't have a big enough sample to know if Holliday can hit lefties.

But last year's .100/.217/.200 slash line against LHP seems to suggest that Holliday will need to make the most of his at-bats against southpaws if the Orioles are not to continue platooning him. Holliday's been limited to nine plate appearances against lefties so far in 2025.

Holliday is a solid option only in deeper leagues and those with daily lineups. If you drafted Holliday, you did so in the hope that he could make good on the potential. Are you giving up on that after three weeks? If so, you probably shouldn't have drafted him. Obviously, in dynasty leagues, Holliday is a must hold.

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