TeeOffSports Vs. MiaTheModel - WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Challenge (2023)

March 21, 2023

Spencer takes on the creation that he and Byron Lindeque made named 'Mia The Model' for this year's Match Play Bracket Challenge!

As some of you may already know, Byron (@TheModelManiac) and I co-manage a model weekly that we have dubbed "Mia." Essentially, we input our results into the sheet and let the consensus of our numbers dictate percentages for the RotoBaller 'One & Done' contest. 

It doesn't mean we always take our sheet's best player available or the top option. However, the randomizer filter incorporates a luck-driven approach to the draw, and I would like to pat ourselves on the shoulders for one second when we look at the impressive $8,459,086 total we have amounted over 10 events.  At this point, it seems as if our incorporated numbers have created an OP variation that can't be stopped, which is why I chose to let her cool down from suffering a numerical overload and decided to import my win percentages for each group and let her do her magic.

As an example here, my numbers thought Scottie Scheffler had about 38% of the win probability in group one, all the way down to a little over 13% for Alex Noren, and I simulated each group five times and took the fifth result as the selection Mia wanted to go with for her bracket. Very similar to the stuff that we get weekly in the OAD contest.

I thought it was a fun way to do it because it kept the mathematical percentages but allowed chaos to ensue like we will see this weekend, so without further ado, here are the results that Mia simulated and the bracket that I also created for myself.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard -World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Match Play

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

Group 1

Strength - 7th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Scottie Scheffler
TeeOff - Davis Riley

Percentages held true for Mia by advancing the 38% equity that it believed Scheffler will hold in group one.

Group 16

Strength - 6th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Tommy Fleetwood
TeeOff - Sungjae Im

Sungjae was the top implied probability choice. Mia went with Fleetwood, who was second

Group 8

Strength - 1st Hardest 

Mia Pick - Matt Kuchar
TeeOff - Viktor Hovland

There's a reason this pod is the most challenging of the 16. Mia decided to roll with the third choice. I chose the slight favorite in Hovland.

Group 9

Strength - 5th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Adam Svensson
TeeOff - Adam Svensson

You could make an argument that my numbers are a little too aggressive for Adam Svensson, but the Canadian was able to realize the slight margin he had in projected win equity over Collin Morikawa and Jason Day in the simulation.

I selected Svensson for the leverage and contrarian nature of my math.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Group 5

Strength - 4th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Hideki Matsuyama
TeeOff - Max Homa

Hideki had a little over 28% to be the choice. I went with my favorite in Homa.

Group 12

Strength - 10th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Jordan Spieth
TeeOff - Taylor Montgomery

The favorite won out for Mia.

Group 13

Strength - 8th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Sam Burns
TeeOff - Sam Burns

Group 4

Strength - 9th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Patrick Cantlay
TeeOff - Patrick Cantlay

Group 2

Strength - 3rd Hardest 

Mia Pick - Billy Horschel
TeeOff - Jon Rahm

Mia's pick sort of shows the wide-open nature of Mitchell, Fowler and Horschel teamed up to take down Rahm.

Group 15

Strength - 11th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Corey Conners
TeeOff - Cameron Young

Conners was the second most likely player to advance. I went with my favorite.

Group 10

Strength - 13th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Tony Finau
TeeOff - Tony Finau

Even a simulated model can't seem to avoid Finau chalk.

Group 7

Strength - 15th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Ryan Fox
TeeOff - Andrew Putnam

This group is open for the taking. Fox was the last choice, but the percentages were all 20+ for the pod.

Group 6

Strength - 2nd Hardest 

Mia Pick - Aaron Wise
TeeOff - Tom Hoge

I've talked enough this week about my love for Hoge. I will be taking him -120 on DraftKings against Wise on day one.

Group 11

Strength - 16th Hardest 

Mia Pick - J.J. Spaun
TeeOff - J.J. Spaun

Spaun was right there with Fitzpatrick when it came to likelihood to advance with my numbers. Not overly shocking that Mia landed there.

Group 14

Strength - 14th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Lucas Herbert
TeeOff - Russell Henley

Another section that has a lot of volatility with who advances.

Group 3

Strength - 12th Hardest 

Mia Pick - Rory McIlroy
TeeOff - Keegan Bradley

McIlroy does have the best chance. I went contrarian, but the math would pick Rory more often than not.

Sweet 16

For the rest of the way through, I ran what my head-to-head percentages would be on each matchup. For example, Scottie was a little less than -200 to advance over Fleetwood in Mia's example.

Mia Pick - Scottie Scheffler over Tommy Fleetwood
TeeOff - Sungjae Im over Davis Riley

Mia Pick - Matt Kuchar over Adam Svensson
TeeOff - Viktor Hovland over Adam Svensson

Mia Pick - Jordan Spieth over Hideki Matsuyama
TeeOff - Max Homa over Taylor Montgomery

Mia Pick - Patrick Cantlay over Sam Burns
TeeOff - Patrick Cantlay over Sam Burns

Mia Pick - Billy Horschel over Corey Conners
TeeOff - Cameron Young over Jon Rahm

Mia Pick - Tony Finau over Ryan Fox
TeeOff - Tony Finau over Andrew Putnam

Mia Pick - J.J. Spaun over Aaron Wise
TeeOff - Tom Hoge over J.J. Spaun

Mia Pick - Rory McIlroy over Lucas Herbert
TeeOff - Russell Henley over Keegan Bradley

Elite 8

Mia Pick - Scottie Scheffler over Matt Kuchar
TeeOff - Sungjae Im over Viktor Hovland

Mia Pick - Patrick Cantlay over Jordan Spieth
TeeOff - Max Homa over Patrick Cantlay

Mia Pick - Tony Finau over Billy Horschel
TeeOff -  Cameron Young over Tony Finau

Mia Pick - J.J. Spaun over Rory McIlroy
TeeOff - Tom Hoge over Russell Henley

Final Four

Mia Pick - Scottie Scheffler over Patrick Cantlay
TeeOff - Max Homa over Sungjae Im

Mia Pick - Tony Finau over J.J. Spaun
TeeOff - Tom Hoge over Cameron Young

Third-Place

Mia Pick - J.J. Spaun over Patrick Cantlay
TeeOff - Cameron Young over Sungjae Im

Finals

Mia Pick - Scottie Scheffler over Tony Finau
TeeOff - Max Homa over Tom Hoge

Mia's Bracket

TeeOffSports' Bracket

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