RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

March 21, 2023

The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for The World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play . Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.

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One and Done Selections - The World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Tyrrell Hatton

Alternate - Rickie Fowler

If you are like me and missed the boat on Tyrrell Hatton in Florida, then this feels like a good spot to try to hop on board. The Englishman heads to Austin in white-hot form and with loads of match-play experience under his belt.

Hatton has advanced out of Group play in three of his four starts in this event and I like his odds of doing so again this year. He opens this week's proceedings in a bubble with Russell Henley, Lucas Hebert, and Ben Griffin; all fine players, but certainly not golfers that are playing at Hatton's level currently. Though a potential Round of 16 matchup with McIlroy looms, Hatton is a player to keep an eye on this week and who I’ll gamble on in this volatile match-play format.

Yearly Earnings - $2,020,656
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Josh Bennett - Scottie Scheffler

Alternate - Patrick Cantlay

I'm under the firm belief that match play in golf, with very minimal exceptions, is pretty much a coin flip. Winning requires mostly luck and the correct timing of that luck (obviously). If there are any exceptions to the rule, Scottie might be one of them. Right now, he appears to be miles ahead of everyone else and there isn't much about his game to be concerned about. Hitting the ball great, short game is good, putting is good enough. He also seems to get a lot of really good breaks in the times they are needed. Not necessarily a "skill", but I think he puts himself in places that give him the best chance for good things to happen more than others, so good things tend to happen to him more than others. That's really my only selling points here given how random this format is, I'm just grabbing the guy that is better than everyone else and seems to have things go his way a lot, pretty much all you can ask for in this kind of event.

Yearly Earnings - $2,933,762
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/10

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Spencer Aguiar - Max Homa

Alternate - Tom Hoge

I am not sure it makes logical sense to take a top golfer during the most volatile event of the season, but I have said I am sticking to my model from here on out, so let's fire up Max Homa.

This might come as a shock, but the American ranked as the top projected win equity golfer I had in the field when we ignore draws, and while the path for Homa is arguably the toughest in the tournament, I don't know what other choice I have than taking a shot. This removes him from my player for the U.S. Open -- something I was trying to avoid, but I am going to keep throwing darts at the board and hope something sticks from the math my model believes in for the week.

Yearly Earnings - $1,202,729
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/10

Byron Lindeque - Jordan Spieth

Another top 20 for the OAD Ketchup Kings is just not going to suffice as we need winners and we need them fast. Sam Ryder was a low Ryder last week at T19 when we need him to be a Flo Ryder for us. Regardless, we try again, pursuing the eternal enigma that is picking a single victor out of a bunch of extremely talented golfers.

Enigma? Texas? Scrambling? >Enters Jordan Spieth from waaaaaay left of the fairway< Yes, we are in Texas and Spieth has the type of game that can drive his opponents bonkers. He is NEVER out the hole and if you think he is going to potentially make bogey from a greenside bunker, you may want to give Metallica another listen, as you are about to “Enter Psycho Sandman” city. He has been incredible out of bunkers of late and his putter is starting to roll the rock nicely, unless its a 6 footer to tie the tournament on the 71st hole, but we are not salty about that. 

He finds comfort in chaos and match play embodies that type of environment. Watch out for the Psycho Sandman in Texas, where he will be doing his bestest, to grab his opponent by their figurative testis.

Yearly Earnings - $2,960,646
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Andrew Putters - Jon Rahm

Alternate - Cameron Young

I am needing a birdie machine. John Rahm is my man. Now, I know he doesn’t have the greatest success in this event, but in reality, who has an easier path?  No one, that is the answer. I am looking for a big name in the last WGC event ever, plus I am saving a couple of LIV guys for MAJOR SZN. 

PS… It’s right around the corner. I love this event and let’s go out with a bang!!

Yearly Earnings - $2,698,458
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/10

Mia The Model - Jon Rahm

Alternate - Jason Day

Byron T20
(Past Selections Have Been Removed)

TeeOff T20

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Tony Finau got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 15% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Tommy Fleetwood and Taylor Montgomery – two golfers that received between 3% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Jon Rahm this week as the selection and Jason Day as the alternate. (All names used previously were removed).

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings - $8,459,086
Yearly Cuts Made - 8/10

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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