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Spencer Aguiar's NFL betting picks for Super Bowl LV. He breaks down Vegas Odds, score predictions, and makes his ATS and O/U picks, offering expert betting advice.
Welcome to my coverage of Super Bowl LV. You might remember that last season's article went over with great success, as I correctly predicted the winner and final score of the Kansas City Chiefs' 31-20 triumph over the San Francisco 49ers.
That expectation level will be challenging to meet for the second consecutive year, but I do hope that this article can help to provide insight and clarity into what I believe will transpire in an interesting matchup between two quarterbacks that have everything on the line when it comes to their legacy.
There are many moving pieces to begin any NFL week, so I will update this article as pertinent information comes to light.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O/U 55
For the first time in NFL history, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be hosting a Super Bowl on their home turf. That is a narrative that will repeatedly get mentioned as the week progresses, but let's dive a little deeper into what that does from a betting perspective.
Anytime you get a storyline that makes national news, it does produce a difference in how the public perceives the game. You don't need me here to tell you that casinos will be taking on a handle this weekend that outweighs anything they see throughout the year, but it might partially help to explain the early money that has pushed this spread down a half-point and into its new range of the Chiefs -3 (-115). I am not necessarily shocked that Tampa Bay money entered the market at some point before the game on Sunday, but I was marginally surprised it happened right out of the gate.
There are a few things that typically play into what derives a core rating for home-field advantage. We could go more in-depth into a multitude of facets that matter, but fans and travel are essentially the two main components you are looking at when constructing a story. It is why you hear about handicappers attaching a number to try and weigh the anticipated difference a team should expect numerically from traveling on the road, but the 2020-2021 season hasn't exactly been your usual setup. I'd argue that home-field was meaningless for the point spread for the majority of the year because of COVID-19, and I have a hard time placing much emphasis here - even if we are anticipating roughly 22,000 fans for the game.
Part of the reason I say that is because the brunt of the occupancy will not be die-hard Buccaneers supporters. Nearly 7,500 of the total tickets are being given to vaccinated health care workers, with the bulk of the remaining 15,000 going towards corporate giveaways. It is one of the reasons you can't find a ticket for less than $5,000 to the game on StubHub, continuing this vague perception of a nothing story turning into a selling point to back the Bucs. Perhaps you can add some level of relevancy to the fact that the Chiefs aren't allowed to travel to the stadium until a day before the Super Bowl, which does hold some merit since the Buccaneers players are already settled into their homes, but I find it hard to attach anything concrete since we are dealing with an essential bye week for both teams.
When we look into the Week 12 meeting between these two franchises, a picture gets painted of a 27-24 win from Kansas City that pushed on the spread and went under the total of 56 points. It is worth noting that we got absolutely no deviation from those two betting numbers a handful of weeks later, but it would be lazy handicapping if we just took the final result and used it as the sole objective of our research. Instead, let's look into how the game got to that finish and if we can find anything "off" from the final score.
The first statistic that caught my eye was that both teams combined for almost 1,000 yards of offense. That equated to just about 7.5 yards per play for each unit offensively and a robust 8.8 (Chiefs) and 8.1 (Bucs) per play through the air. Those numbers don't exactly translate to a game that should have ended with only 51 points and can probably be explained by Kansas City stepping off the gas after taking a 17-0 lead after the first quarter.
Unfortunately, that has turned into something we have seen far too frequently in the last half of the season for Andy Reid. The Chiefs were only able to cover the point spread once over the final eight regular-season contests and stumbled in their opening battle of the playoffs against the Cleveland Browns. A lot of the blame for the latter can be placed on Patrick Mahomes getting hurt in the third quarter and not returning, but it kept with the trend of negative second-half displays when the game looked to be out of reach.
Any form of conservation is a weird way to describe a Reid led unit because of the sheer gamble he exudes weekly. It is funny because these "conservative" routes are usually forgiven when the 62-year-0ld constructs a dazzling play late to help his team win the game, but the lapses of aggressiveness have hurt backers laying points. I thought Reid was self-aware enough in the Conference Championship against Buffalo to make sure nothing out of the ordinary took place, but it is deserving of a mention when discussing what has gone wrong from a betting perspective for gamblers that have found themselves on the wrong side of a lot of narrow Kansas City wins.
All of that is worth noting and fine when we are trying to construct what a four-quarter plan will look like for the defending champions, but the outlier here is that Tampa Bay is about as one-dimensional as you will get from a defensive unit. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is relentless when it comes to calling blitzes and will take risks that most teams aren't willing to gamble upon. That often has presented massive irregularities in anticipated outcomes because of the uncertain nature of this particular but certain structure, but there is a downside present when you face a savvy quarterback like Mahomes. We saw the negatives of that aggressive play-calling in Week 12 when Tyreek Hill accumulated seven receptions, 203 yards, two touchdowns and three catches of 30-plus yards, and I struggle to grasp the notion that we will see Tampa Bay deviate when it hasn't been in their plan at any point this season.
If we flip to an offensive look from the Bucs, we saw them run on 21 first downs last weekend against the Green Bay Packers - three times more than they passed. I do believe that is the preferred way head coach Bruce Arians would like to attack the Chiefs since we see their defensive unit ranked 29th in defensive rushing efficiency, but it is going to take such an aberrational first quarter for that to transform into a strategy that works. Arians would essentially need his team to jump out to an early lead in the same fashion they did against the Packers and allow his run game to work as a game-script controller that not only keeps Mahomes off the field but also provides Tom Brady with a better chance to find sustained success.
We have seen Brady perform nearly eight percent above his regular-season output on third down in the playoffs, converting an impressive 51% of the time. The sample size is a little too small to determine much from those numbers, but I do think it can start to show that the Bucs are overperforming in multiple areas. A reduction in red-zone touchdowns allowed defensively can be added to the equation for a team that seems to be getting the most out of their units, and it shouldn't hurt matters from a point spread aspect that the Chiefs rank as the worst team in the NFL in preventing red-zone scores. If Tampa Bay is winning, we should expect Kansas City to get even more aggressive. And if they are losing, there should be an opening for Brady to attack deep against a defense that grades out 23rd in explosive passes allowed.
Prediction: Chiefs 38 – Buccaneers 24
Recommended Picks: Chiefs (-3), Over 56
I've tried to make a case for Bucs in whatever way possible, but I view this as a Chiefs or nothing scenario. Yes, there are some offensive line injuries worth monitoring for KC, but Mahomes wouldn't be the QB I would blitz. You could point to his pressured completion percentage this season of 43.1% (11th best) as perhaps a reason that Bowles' gameplan might work, but that's where the lazy narratives come back into play. The 25-year-old views a blitz as a way to beat you deep, and he uses those rare occurrences to go for a home run when it gets presented to him. Tampa's aggressive nature on defense is one of the reasons why I think this game goes over the posted total, and it probably doesn't hurt their perceived plan to attack with Chiefs' tackle Eric Fisher all but out for the year. Keep an eye on the health of Antonio Brown, as the addition of him on Sunday would only help stretch the field and push this number over 56 points.
*** With thunderstorms potentially in the forecast, I don't think there is much of a rush to get in either of the two mentioned plays. The spread seems to be dropping - something I would monitor closely to try and get the best number possible, and the total should continue to dip with the news on the weather. It is one of those things where you just need to be proactive and on top of the movements to get the best price possible.
UPDATE: The line has moved into a -3 (-105), O/U 55 range. I am good with both of those numbers as entry points
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